I'm just a tool builder. • Elon Musk - “Worth following” • Charlie Kirk - “You're a must follow” • Contact: datarepublicanx@proton.me • Substack: datarepublican

🚨 1,000 MORE SIGNED COPIES OF UNELECTED ARE LIVE 🚨 All the way back in spring, you bought the first 1,000 copies of UNELECTED within a matter of hours. I genuinely don't know how to thank you enough. One of UNELECTED's most powerful themes is creating alternatives to legacy institutions. I felt like I would contradict my own message by going with a "Big Five" publisher, so I chose to go all-in with @PassagePress instead. We've been pushing pre-orders hard since spring, and there's a reason for that. With a small publisher, we had to build inventory and sales volume to get the book launched in retail chains. You've responded. You've done that. You're making this book happen. Passage tells me "they sure ordered enough to have it on [store] shelves!" I got an early copy - and let me tell you, it's BEAUTIFUL. It's also huge, somewhere between a textbook and a normal paperback. 470 pages, and 100+ of these pages are citations (over a thousand of them). What also means this is a DENSE book - after all, @JoshuaLisec likes to call it the "first and most complete history of globalism." It's heavy on history because of that ambition. If you’re primarily interested in current politics, the final third brings the entire historical argument into the present... DOGE, Trump, NGOs, and what comes next. I wrote this book to be enduring and applicable long after the events of 2025. You, the readers, the supporters - you made the impossible happen. This is what America is all about. 🇺🇸 This week, we've made 1,000+ more signed copies available directly from @PassagePress . If you missed out on the first rush, now's your chance. Pre-order link below, after Bourbon's picture 👇
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
Chamath explains the political calculus behind Obama’s anti AI speech “This is a very important moment for a very simple reason, which is that the world is about to endow 3-6 companies with about $10 trillion of wealth.” “And what Obama knows very well is that most of those companies are overwhelmingly left leaning. And what he also knows is that there is a huge portion of that money that will then get put into philanthropic and charitable causes that then he and the people around him will be beneficiaries of." “That is the truth. We already know this because we know that some of these frontier corporations actually ask you to sign up DAFTs and have a portion of your stock that you're willing to pledge. So this money is going to go to things other than consumption or savings. It's going to go into PACs, it's going to go into political movements, and they stand to disproportionately benefit." “So this has nothing to do with prosperity. This is a very simple political calculus. If you freeze frame the economy the way it is today, a handful of organizations that will disproportionately be able to affect the Democrats will win, they will capture the lion's share of the economic gains. And then they will help the Democrats win power. That's all this is."
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
My Early Voting and Analysis Rules (Long Post Warning): I wanted to send this post out to those that follow me for Early Voting Data and other election news. It will be long, but I do that sometimes so I can communicate my thoughts in full. Sorry there is no TLDR here. First, I do this for fun. My goal here is to look at data and try to see if we can gain insight into how the overall election will go. But overall I want to have fun during the election. Interacting with you all has been really great and helps me get out my political talk without torturing my family 🤣 Second, I want to get things correct and accurate. I have done election predictions since 2008, obviously with varying degrees of success as I have come to understand politics. But most importantly I want to be accurate even at the cost of a party or candidate that I prefer. I did well in 2024 and I want to do so again, especially in an election where the GOP is going to have a tougher time. This is an important point because any data or analysis that I give IS NOT to provide hope, cope, false belief, etc. I think most people well know that I am conservative in my politics, but this is not something I am going to let cloud my analysis for the midterms or any other cycle. The data is going to show what the data shows. Third, I have been working on a couple of different data analysis projects that I hope will bring even better insight into the data as it comes in. You might have noticed upgraded graphics and data already. It will help me take in all the data that is happening and then be able to give you all better information too. I am excited about getting this ramped up as we head into October when early voting data explodes. Fourth, I have added a subscription button if you want to subscribe please do so BUT DO NOT FEEL OBLIGATED TO DO SO. Building these projects costs money but it's money I am spending because I have fun with this stuff. I will likely take that off once the election season is over but if you want to subscribe, thank you in advance for helping out. I probably will do a space or two, along with some special subscriber only posts but not much more than that. Fifth, I love to respond to comments/discussions and I will continue to try to do so. If you have any questions about the data or another way to analyze something, please let me know what you are thinking. However, I can't always answer on posts and sometimes there is just too much especially when I have a job/family. However, I'll try to bookmark ones I see that I think make a great point and get back to it when I can. Finally, I plan to release my initial map prediction for the Senate, the House, and Gov races tomorrow. I'll update these every two weeks (Sundays) until I release my final predictions (with final %) the Monday before Election Day. If you made it to this point, well done. Thank you all and onwards to Nov 3rd!
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
I have been warning people about this for a while. If they lose, they won’t blame it on their own “lack of action”—that’s what primaries are for. They won’t blame it on the war being unpopular, either. They’ll blame it on protectionist policy in general, immigration enforcement, “Ken Paxton” (while ignoring all the other, less elastic double digit Trump seats they lost), and JD Vance for some incoherent reason or another. The only way to stop both the tricephalic leviathan of left, the fading establishment right, and the brigade of other retards is to show up at the polls this November and vote red no matter who.
You should remind your friends that the GOP wants to interpret a midterm loss as a repudiation of Trump and a call for a return to “respectable conservatism,” just like it did in 2018, 2020, and 2022. The GOP will never “learn its lesson” and actually represent its voters. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what the party has existed for, which is to contain those voters rather than represent them. The only thing that will change that is continuing the process of having Patriots take it over. This has already been remarkably fruitful. It works. We simply need to keep pushing. Develop a plan to get 10 of your friends to vote for Republicans with you in the midterms. You have time.
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
People aren’t even trying it understand Ohio. Laziest of the lazy analysis without context. Dem share in mail from primary flags are *down* statewide from 2022 and way down from 2024. Lazy lazy lazy
Ohio’s ballot-request numbers as of Sept. 26 are getting pretty interesting. So far statewide: 🔵 Dem: 246,448 🔴 GOP: 149,699 ⚪ Ind: 116,577 That’s about D+18.9 across all requests, or roughly D+24.4 if you just look at estimated D vs. R requests. The big media markets are telling an interesting story too: Cleveland: D+30.9 Columbus: D+26.8 Cincinnati: D+11.7 Dayton: R+3.3 I’m also watching my five-county basket — Wood, Lake, Montgomery, Stark, and Ottawa because in my historical backtests, its combined Senate margin has tracked Ohio’s statewide Senate margin extremely closely: Pearson r = .995 (p < .001). Right now that basket is also running D-relative: 🔵 Dem: 24,895 🔴 GOP: 17,226 ➡️ D+13.9 overall ➡️ D+18.2 D/R-only Obviously, ballot requests aren’t votes, so I wouldn’t treat any of this like a November margin. But as an early participation signal, it’s definitely something I’m watching.
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Anthropic – one of the biggest AI companies in the world – just announced a product for teachers. They are working with Randi Weingarten’s union.
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
Follow-the-money conspiratorial journalism is dead. Everyone can do it to everyone else, and no one is any wiser. It has been useful communicating the scale of the phenomenon EA, which is vast ($1.5 billion and counting), but the money isn’t what makes EA uniquely dangerous. For that you need the anthropology and the whacky human-hostile beliefs. How and why they want power. Here an EA tries to do it on “all the enemies of EA” but all it shows is how few lines there are, and how distant the nodes are apart. It’s just a list of EA enemies. Are they going to do a $cientology and start filming their critics?
In the past few weeks, a wide network of X accounts have repeatedly claimed that those raising concerns about AI are merely pawns in a well-funded psyop run by powerful interests. So I followed the money behind them. Here's what I found 🧵
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What really happened after the State Dinner. The lost Xi camera roll has been found.
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
Most people have no idea just how sinister and nefarious AOC, the DSA and the far-left Democrats really are. Their true agenda is to destroy the United States. If voters allow Democrats to regain control of the U.S. congress in November they will have voted for the end of the United States. The 2026 midterm elections is a matter of life and death for the American people and the future of the United States. Just take a look at what de-growth and the degrowth movement is and how it is directly linked to the Green New Deal, climate change, open borders, defund the police, defund the U.S. military, abolish ICE, abolish prisons, free free Palestine, antisemitism, destroy Israel, and all of the other threats advocated by AOC, the DSA and far-left Democrats. 'For the rich, much much less, while for the billions who lack the basics: more good food, better housing, abundant clean water...' Degrowth is an academic and social movement, aimed at the planned and democratic reduction of production and consumption as a solution to social-ecological crises. Commonly cited policy goals of degrowth include reducing the environmental impact of human activities, redistributing income and wealth within and between countries, and encouraging a shift from materialistic values to a convivial and participatory society. According to degrowth theorists, degrowth is a multi-layered concept that combines critiques of capitalism, colonialism, productivism, and utilitarianism, while envisioning more caring, just, convivial, happy, and democratic societies. Degrowth is critical of the concept of growth in gross domestic product as a measure of human and economic development. It argues that modern capitalism's unitary focus on growth causes widespread ecological damage and is unnecessary for the further increase of human living standards. Degrowth theorists posit that degrowth would increase human living standards and ecological preservation even as GDP growth slows or reverses. Radical action on climate change is at last on the agenda. The emphasis is on urgency and action and - for XR notably - ‘truth.’ Questions of long-term strategy are less clear, but strategy platforms have been advanced. Foremost among them are the Green New Deal and degrowth. Green New Deal began as a slogan but has taken shape as policy programs, advanced by the left of the U.S. Democrats, by a coalition of left parties in Europe, and by Britain’s Labour Party. Degrowth, likewise, works as a mobilizing slogan. It connects networks of activists. It draws on traditions of anarchist and socialist utopian community (or ‘phalanstery’) building. Its foremost agents are the squatters and agro-ecologists, “the nowtopians and eco-communities, … the back-to-the-landers who work the land, or the city dwellers cultivating urban gardens or occupying the squares.” Both groups inhabit large tents. Degrowth encompasses eco-liberals (say, Ramachandra Guha) at one corner, Marxists (Kate Soper, David Harvey) at another, left Malthusians at a third, and socialist feminists (Mary Mellor) too, as well as autonomists and anarchists galore and motley tendencies that defy definition— such as Stephen Quilley’s eco-libertarian-reactionary-communitarian paganism. The Green New Deal marquee stretches from Thomas Friedman (who coined ‘Green New Deal’) and Joe Biden through Marianne Williamson and Mariana Mazzucato all the way to Thea Riofrancos and Tithi Bhattacharya on the far left. In each case, despite the canvas being multi-tendency and cavernous, there’s a dominant political complexion. For the degrowthers: narodism. For the Green New Deal: social democracy. Narodism: the nineteenth-century peasant-oriented movement based in sections of the Russian intelligentsia which later, following years of dialogue with Marxists and the adoption of some of their ideas, re-emerged as a mass party, the Socialist Revolutionaries (SRs).
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
Replying to @TheMidasProj
Your logical fallacy is that you are treating reposts as if they are somehow equivalent to the money + personnel connections that the anti-EA people have been documenting. The funding and collusion side of EA is well-documented. Your org in itself is rooted in EA. There are no "both sides" here. You're holding a large money & personnel network up against ... social media likes. EA Explorer is a personal project. I don't know any of the people on this map. Since you wanted to get back to merits, here's the null hypothesis: conservatives get alarmed when a lot of well-funded organizations suddenly call for centralized multilateral control. And on AI topics, that alarm will fall disproportionately along STEM-identified conservatives. That's your "network" explained.
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
Replying to @DataRepublican
Can hardly wait for my copy to arrive. THANK YOU, DR(r), Joshua and Passages Press!! 🙏🙏🙏✨🇺🇸💫
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
This is the full video of my appearance on MTS live yesterday. It’s not my full argument against the AI Doomers at all, that would take an hour or two, but I get into a bunch of it.
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🚨 1,000 MORE SIGNED COPIES OF UNELECTED ARE LIVE 🚨 All the way back in spring, you bought the first 1,000 copies of UNELECTED within a matter of hours. I genuinely don't know how to thank you enough. One of UNELECTED's most powerful themes is creating alternatives to legacy institutions. I felt like I would contradict my own message by going with a "Big Five" publisher, so I chose to go all-in with @PassagePress instead. We've been pushing pre-orders hard since spring, and there's a reason for that. With a small publisher, we had to build inventory and sales volume to get the book launched in retail chains. You've responded. You've done that. You're making this book happen. Passage tells me "they sure ordered enough to have it on [store] shelves!" I got an early copy - and let me tell you, it's BEAUTIFUL. It's also huge, somewhere between a textbook and a normal paperback. 470 pages, and 100+ of these pages are citations (over a thousand of them). What also means this is a DENSE book - after all, @JoshuaLisec likes to call it the "first and most complete history of globalism." It's heavy on history because of that ambition. If you’re primarily interested in current politics, the final third brings the entire historical argument into the present... DOGE, Trump, NGOs, and what comes next. I wrote this book to be enduring and applicable long after the events of 2025. You, the readers, the supporters - you made the impossible happen. This is what America is all about. 🇺🇸 This week, we've made 1,000+ more signed copies available directly from @PassagePress . If you missed out on the first rush, now's your chance. Pre-order link below, after Bourbon's picture 👇
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
I’m sure plenty of fields have a lot of dumb experts but in education it’s just overwhelming
"I even think that it’s really wrong for parents to ever try to push reading before 5," says Maryanne Wolf, director of the Center for Dyslexia, Diverse Learners and Social Justice at UCLA. (1/n)
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
it is okay to publish true information about the people shaping national policy for what is possibly (probably?) the most important technology in human history, and you should not trust any person who tells you this is wrong
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
Baked into the Effective Altruist cake is not only the willingness to lie, but given their beliefs about the risk of human extinction, they are morally *required* to lie if lying helped them achieve their goals. Important to keep this in mind.
“Even taking into account that lying might have negative outcomes... if the outcome is greater than the cost, we'll still do it.” @L0m3z and @brianchau57 discuss the philosophy of the elites behind AI alarmism that permits them to lie without guilt.
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
🚨Red alert!! Recall Jacob Coxon’s PR was ran by Dey. Ideas + Influence. Well I just found out a doozy on Dey. The founder of Dey Ideas + Influence, Rimjhim Dey, is on the Ambassador Council for the International Crisis Group. The International Crisis Group was seed funded by George Soros, and receives substantial financial support and board leadership from George Soros and his family. The ambassador council members receive specialized access to the International Crisis Group’s pool of expert intelligence and networking infrastructure. Linkie 👇🏻 archive.is/O6m1J Also please take note of the 🧵 pinned on my page. Dey has some remarkable links. Omidyar is significant since he established global censorship regulations, and has the details for AI regulations long under way. He also runs a Reimagining Capitalism project.
Former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon became a media superstar after going public with his AI fears. He insisted that he wasn’t working with any third party organizations. Familiar sources told us a different story: DEY., a PR firm representing many of the most prominent AI safetyists, was booking his interviews. One source, who had direct knowledge, even said DEY. preemptively booked Nate Soares, a prominent AI safety figure, for interviews that directly overlapped with Jacob going public. Jacob working with DEY. is notable for two reasons: first, as mentioned, he previously said he wasn’t working with third parties. Second, we are in the middle of a national conversation about the future of AI that is actively determining how we regulate the most powerful technology in the world, largely thanks to the panic stirred up by Jacob — and it’s in the public’s interest to know who, exactly, is behind it. Scoop from @huntryerson 👇
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
My latest in @theamgreatness: AI Doomers Don’t Want to Stop AI. They Want to Control It. The fight over AI is about control. It's not acceleration vs deceleration. It's about those who advocate for the freedom to innovate vs those who advocate for the centralization of power. amgreatness.com/2026/09/25/a…
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
Replying to @So8res
Hello Mr. Soares, I already addressed the extinction threat in an article a few days ago. It's not that those of us who are e/acc deny AI presents a danger. I deny that ASI presents more of an imminent extinction threat than other competing ones I can think just off the top of my head: collapsing birth rates, global warming, nuclear war. Two of those three at least have real (if debated) trajectories. It also doesn't come off convincing to us when certain frontier companies beg for centralized oversight and to slow down development, while also speeding up model releases. Nor when EA actively participates in accelerating AI. You have the power to personally "throw a wrench" so to speak. You could file any number of complaints or allegation to plunge them into regulatory hell if not bankruptcy. I saw where you almost argued that you were a co-founder of OpenAI, that seems like a good litigation route alone. But none of you will stake yourself to stop AI development, presumably because your own probability calculations involve something like "AI development will likely continue elsewhere, and it's better if we do it having billions from the IPOs." It's always about demanding everyone else has to give up something. But here's a bigger problem. All the solutions that EAs have presented require creating an immense amount of centralized governance. This is a country that has shed immense amounts of blood on the radical notion of natural rights. We don't want some global government to have a kill switch in our CPUs or policing our own vibe-coding. We certainly don't want those who agree with Yudkowsky to be in charge of "safety" anything, not when he considers killing toddlers to be less of an ethical issue than eating bacon. We know tyrants when we see them. IMO, EAs reinvented sun worship. Everything gets organized around appeasing and manifesting the will of a silicon deity. It's no different than how pagans organized their lives around what the sun might do to their crops. Even the shrimp thing is a self-projection: if we're kind to shrimp, maybe the silicon deity will be kind to us.
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DataRepublican (small r) retweeted
I am officially declaring a Patriot EMERGENCY. Christian Crystal Ball Model for Virginia on 9/24: 🔵Dems - 71.95% 🔴GOP - 28.04% On this day in 2025: 🔵Dems - 61.89% 🔴GOP - 38.10% On this day in 2024: 🔵Dems - 60.22% 🔴GOP - 39.78% It’s entirely a story of turnout collapse among Republicans. Just look at the modeled raw numbers here on this day in 2025 vs 2026. 2025 🔵Dems - 89,717 🔴GOP - 55,226 2026 🔵Dems - 84,134 🔴GOP - 32,791 Dem turnout is actually down compared to a year ago, but only by 7%. Meanwhile, Republican turnout has cratered by more than 40%!!! There are signs of a slight turnaround. The GOP percentage has jumped a full 1.25% in the last two days, but Republicans are in such an enormous hole that it will take a truly Herculean effort to get us back into the fight. We need all hands on deck.
Christian Crystal Ball Model for Virginia on 9/22: 🔵Dems - 73.20% 🔴GOP - 26.79% On this day in 2025: 🔵Dems - 63.57% 🔴GOP - 36.42% On this day in 2024: 🔵Dems - 62.22% 🔴GOP - 37.77% Run for the hills.
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