New home of @David_Charts. Armchair economist, sci-fi fan, impressed by good data viz. Node in the vast left wing conspiracy. Facts have a liberal bias.
Blue territory.
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"Corporate bond markets have been hyperscalers' primary source of financing. Their gross issuance increased markedly, topping $100 billion in 2025 (Graph A1.B). Most issuance was longterm, with maturities over five years, locking in funding for multi-year build-outs. However, credit default swap (CDS) spreads rose (Graph A1.C), especially for hyperscalers with lower credit ratings, reflecting both the volume of supply and uncertainties around the projects' payoffs."
bis.org/publications/qr-2026…
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Fixing a label here; 2023 share not 2019. If middle-class households had the 16.4% share of 1979 in 2023, income would have been $10,524 higher.
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Some info on the off-balance sheet arrangements; AI estimate of the true D/E with off-balance sheet amounts included are about 2-3x as high. 6/END
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Oracle is much more indebted vs. equity than the others. It has been volatile but reduced its ratio significantly recently. There were relatively large increases in both assets and equity, indicating the complexity of data center lease accounting and equity financing. 5/
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Meta has been increasing somewhat. It's bonds are trading at higher yields than those with lower ratios, indicating additional risk. 4/
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🧵How indebted are the big tech companies building out AI and datacenters? The debt to equity ratio is one way of measuring it. Details on each company in thread. There is a big caveat here, that these companies put a lot off-balance sheet. 1/
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It is unusual. When we talk about the labor market, the big asterisk is the labor force is getting smaller because we've blocked immigrants, along with aging demographics.
This is yet another force driving a shift towards a capital-based economy and away from a labor-based one.
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We should be in the 35%+ range with our aging country. We were at 32% under Biden before the Trump tax cuts, which will take this down towards 30%.
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Correction to the above chart: Even the 2022 figure of 65,600 was above 2019. I saw them as the same somehow LOL.
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Comparing the more egalitarian 1979 with 2023, income share has increased for the top quintile (mainly in the top 1%) while it has fallen for the other four quintiles. We should reverse this trend with higher taxes on the rich. 5/END.
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Q: How much has the worsening of income inequality vs. 1979 impacted the middle-class household?
A: About $10,500 per year less income per year.
I would like to see economists dollarize the impact of macro-trends for households more often. 4/
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The top and middle quintiles gained income share from 2019 to 2023, while the others stayed the same or lost share. The CBO shares added to more than 100% (future correction perhaps) so I removed share from the top 20% in 2019 and 2023 to balance. 3/
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Looking at each year, all groups had more purchasing power than 2019, with the exception of the 20th-40th percentile in 2022, where it was the same as 2019. In 2020-2021, there were large stimulus checks temporarily increasing the # vs. 2019. 2/
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🧵CBO: Real (infl-adj) after-tax income was higher in 2023 than 2019 for households in all five income quintiles, indicating they had more purchasing power than pre-pandemic. The media badly distorted this good news story. 1/ cbo.gov/publication/62761
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If you believe conservative legend Milton Friedman's view that inflation is a function of the money supply, then you can see who caused it.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/m…
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If the economy is booming as much as people are saying, then we should be taxing the rich more to slow it down, bring inflation down, and bring interest rates down.
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Great question; I'm trying to learn about it myself. AI view on pros & cons of a capital-driven economy. At this point in my research, I think it's mainly the weakening of labor power that is the main problem. So slower wage growth, less job security, inequality, etc.
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I've started wresting with the implications of capital income soon exceeding labor income. We can analyze GDI per job, with labor income and capital income as its components. Nominal CAGR since Q4 '24:
Labor income per job +3.6%
Capital income per job +7.8%
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g…
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From pre-pandemic Q4 '19 to Q2 '26, gross domestic income (GDI) grew $10.5 trillion. Labor income accounted for 46%, capital income 36%, and depreciation ("Consumption of fixed capital" used to balance to GDP) 18% of the increase.
fred.stlouisfed.org/release/…
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It's not about economic conditions anymore. It's probably more about fairness. There was a giant increase in net worth since the pandemic, but the bottom 50% got only 4% of the increase ($2T of the $47T). Bottom 50% also have only 2.3% of the net worth.
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Measured from pre-pandemic:
⚫️Bottom 50% had the highest % increase
⚫️Top 10% ex-the very richest (top 0.1%) lost share
⚫️Bottom 90% gained share
⚫️Bottom 50% have only 2.3% of the net worth
⚫️Bottom 50% got $1.9T of the $46.7T increase, 4%.
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Q4 '19 adjusted for inflation and including share statistics. The top 0.1% and bottom 90% increased share; the 90th-99.9th (most of top 10% excluding the very richest) lost share.
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Biden had the highest real hourly wage (purchasing power) and lowest unemployment rate on average among the last 11 presidents.
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As much fun as this analysis is, the fact remains Biden had the highest real wage on average among the last 11 presidents, and the lowest unemployment rate.
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Trump inherited $3.10 gas and now it’s $4.50.
He inherited 3.0% inflation that was falling and now it’s 3.4% after peaking over 4.0%, due to tariffs and attacks on Iran.
Prices of most things are higher.
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Of the $12.5 trillion increase in net worth in Q2 '26, the bottom 80% income groups got $2.2 trillion or 18% of it.
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Capital income is trending to exceed labor income for the first time for records back to 1947. If we think of productivity as income per job (using GDI vs. GDP), it's driven by capital income.
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Personal savings per household has been cut about 50%, from $9,100 to around $4,600.
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g…
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Capital income has grown about 6.5% annually since pre-pandemic, while labor income has grown 4.5%. Gross domestic income (GDI) is the income side of the ledger and reconciles to GDP, the production side.
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Since pre-pandemic, capital income is up 57% cumulatively while labor income is up 40%. Note the widening gap recently indicating acceleration.
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g…
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Capital income is on course to exceed labor income for the first time for data back to 1947.
Labor is pay and benefits. Capital is corporate profits, interest, dividends, rent, etc. Graph shows $ per payroll job to make the numbers meaningful.
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g…
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August NAR existing homes report:
Median price of homes sold +1.6% vs. year ago, the 38th consecutive month of YOY price increases.
4.9 months supply of housing at present rate of sale, highest in 10 years.
nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-exi…
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CBO: "The increase in the size of the population is by far the largest driver of the growth in nominal GDP... accounting for $7.8 T of the $8.9 T the surge adds to GDP from 2024 to 2034."
That $9T is about $65,000 more per household in income over 10 yrs.
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We just had a $12.5 trillion household net worth increase last quarter, and the bottom 90% got $2.4 trillion or 19% of that. The system heavily favors capital over labor and we have to tax accordingly.
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CBO estimated Biden's immigration surge as a nearly $1 trillion deficit/debt reducer over a decade.
cbo.gov/publication/60165
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CBO: Deficit excluding interest ("Primary Deficit") is expected to fall as % GDP. Interest is the big driver.
Along with immigrants and tax hikes on the rich, lower interest rates are critical. We have to solve inflation first though, which means ending the tariffs and wars.
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Another reason to finish college: Net worth held by educational attainment. College educated have $141 trillion of the $186 trillion net worth or 76%, although they are ~37% of U.S. adults.
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Fed also analyzes net worth by income group, not just wealth group. All groups saw an increase in net worth $ from Q1 to Q2 '26, with the largest gains at the top. However, all groups below the 90th percentile lost net worth share, as the gains were mainly in stocks.
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Trump should thank SCOTUS for cutting taxes (tariffs) by $700B over a decade, helping reduce price increases.
Post-SCOTUS, Trump's policies have added about $2.3 trillion to the debt trajectory he inherited over a decade.
cbo.gov/publication/62704
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