New home of @David_Charts. Armchair economist, sci-fi fan, impressed by good data viz. Node in the vast left wing conspiracy. Facts have a liberal bias.
Blue territory.
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Summarizing CBO, Fed and other analyses of Trump's truly awful economic policies, so you have it all in one place for sharing.
🔴Bottom 80% are expected to be worse off from the combination of Trump's tax bill (OBBBA) and tariffs. 1/
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/…
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David Doney retweeted
CBO just released its latest "Distribution of Household Income" report (for year 2023), and the findings are - as usual - a narrative violation.
Real incomes up across the board.
Income inequality basically flat for decades.
Taxes falling for everyone except the rich.
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David Doney retweeted
I have an idea how to fix the inflation problem.
Rising share of HH net transferring money from securities account to pay for daily expenses in recent years, particularly at the top end. All ages, not just boomers. Clear example of the dissaving driven economy.
jpmorganchase.com/institute/…
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🧵CBO: Real (infl-adj) after-tax income was higher in 2023 than 2019 for households in all five income quintiles, indicating they had more purchasing power than pre-pandemic. The media badly distorted this good news story. 1/ cbo.gov/publication/62761
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Q: How much has the worsening of income inequality vs. 1979 impacted the middle-class household?
A: About $10,500 per year less income per year.
I would like to see economists dollarize the impact of macro-trends for households more often. 4/
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David Doney retweeted
Some info on the off-balance sheet arrangements; AI estimate of the true D/E with off-balance sheet amounts included are about 2-3x as high. 6/END
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Deja Vu. I recall the same argument to @BIllAckman's here being made in 1999: as the Fed raised rates, Silicon Valley claimed it would have no effect because dot-coms didn't borrow. As that episode showed, raise rates enough & you can deflate any investment boom and bring inflation down.
The presumption that the Fed raising short-term rates reduces inflation is predicated on the belief that higher rates reduce demand and investment.
But what if higher rates don’t reduce demand and investment because the demand for intelligence and energy is unaffected by higher rates because winning the race for super intelligence has a near infinite ROI and the demand for compute will remain incalculable.
Why won’t higher rates at this unique moment in history therefore lead to more inflation as interest costs are embedded in everything?
And the problem is compounded as the more the Fed raises rates, the more inflation we will have and the more the Fed will need to raise rates further and so on.
But what if the old models don’t apply to the current paradigm and the Fed is wrong?
I think the Fed might have just made a mistake. Am I right or am I wrong?
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🧵How indebted are the big tech companies building out AI and datacenters? The debt to equity ratio is one way of measuring it. Details on each company in thread. There is a big caveat here, that these companies put a lot off-balance sheet. 1/
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Oracle is much more indebted vs. equity than the others. It has been volatile but reduced its ratio significantly recently. There were relatively large increases in both assets and equity, indicating the complexity of data center lease accounting and equity financing. 5/
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David Doney retweeted
This is despite American conservatives having higher birth rates than liberals.
🔗 dailysignal.com/2026/06/22/p…
For the first time since at least 1982, deaths now outnumber births in reliably Republican counties across America.
This demographic shift may already be reshaping US voting patterns.
bit.ly/4hpvwUK
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David Doney retweeted
Food for thought.
Historically, the CPI has run hotter than the PCE, which the Fed targets.
That relationship has flipped, notably on core CPI and PCE. The nonfood and non-energy measure of PCE are a full percent HIGHER than core CPI.
Why?
First, are shelter costs, which have cooled. They have a larger weight in the core CPI than core CPI.
Second, are some measurement issues that the BEA is working to improve and will shave 0.2% give or take to Y/Y PCE with benchmark revisions next week.
Third, and most important. The PCE better captures health car costs when they are rising rapidly than the CPI. Those costs are rising so fast that many employers have slowed wage gains to deal with the jump.
We have not seen the gap anywhere near its current spread since 1983.
Those costs are particularly hard for the Fed to reign-in. Instead, it must hammer other more cyclically sensitive prics to offset those increases.
That is more painful than the near immaculate disinflation the Fed laid out with the press conference and forecasts after it raised rates for the first time since 2023 in September.
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The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is low. Here’s why you should care. - NPR stocks.apple.com/AVCXSOGbUSF…
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David Doney retweeted
Jack Smith investigated Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, yet for months, Senate Republicans refused to allow him to testify about what he found.
I look forward to hearing what Mr. Smith has to say on Tuesday.
BREAKING: Special Counsel Jack Smith will testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee next Tuesday.
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David Doney retweeted
🚨 Goldman Sachs just put out a mind-blowing report on the state of the AI market.
The largest US hyperscalers are on track to spend $800 BILLION on capital expenditures in 2026.
Goldman estimates that could reach $1.2 TRILLION in 2027.
Here's everything you need to know: 👇🧵
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David Doney retweeted
Yep the war in Iran is driving up the ten-year Treasury note, which raises mortgage rates and car loans. Truly the un-affordability president. By choice!
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