Global macro investor. 30+ years across cycles. PM at DecodeMarkets AMC. I love finding great companies. Even more when the shorts are trapped

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Looking past daily noise, the purple line captures a massive macro divergence. Between the rise of AI agents, RWA tokenization + stablecoin settlement, the underlying rails are shifting. With most accounts still holding zero $ETH this structural mispricing will be studied in future financial textbooks
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Over a week later, the SEC’s words are still ringing in my ears. “Public, permissionless” A condition of its September 17 tokenized-stock exemption. Regulated markets. Open infrastructure. A massive opportunity for Ethereum. Now imagine institutions, hedge funds and retail waking up together, chasing $ETH Q3 performance. ZERO exposure suddenly becomes a position everyone wants to fix. That’s where the “problem” starts. Especially if you’re short $BMNR or $SBET Exchange balances are already thin. If everyone rushes in together, there won’t be enough $ETH on offer at these prices. That’s how I read these tiny dips getting bought all over this week Some investors are positioning before the others wake up. sec.gov/newsroom/press-relea…
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Venezuela showed how violently distressed debt can reprice when the political odds change. Cuba could be an even more extreme case. A credible opening could improve repayment prospects long before the economy recovers. The trade starts when “never” becomes “maybe”
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The last closing bell is coming.
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Silicon Valley $1.2 trillion vacuum cleaner…. Sucking in capital is the easy part. Turning it into returns will be the real test.
GOLDMAN SEES AI CAPEX SURGING TO $1.2 TRILLION Goldman Sachs expects the five largest U.S. hyperscalers to boost AI infrastructure spending 54% to $1.2 trillion in 2027, above Wall Street estimates. Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle and Meta are already on track to spend $800 billion this year. Goldman estimates hyperscalers need roughly $300 billion in annual AI revenue to break even, while rising financing needs and infrastructure constraints could slow future spending growth.
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“Surprises” before the US midterms are coming in the many fronts open to spark a monster rally.
TACO Time? Trump Reversal Index Hits Highest Level Since March zerohedge.com/markets/trump-…
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Bessent hasn’t won the battle on yields. Yet…. I do believe a “surprise” before the US midterms, organic or policy-engineered, will change the narrative and sparks a monster rally. Never underestimate political incentives
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Could quarter-end window dressing fuel institutional FOMO in $ETH? At yesterday’s call @fundstrat chart shows ETH leading the quarter. Managers who missed the rally, where mandates permit, may now want exposure before September 30 to show the winner in their reported holdings. That demand could reinforce momentum and draw more sidelined capital into the trade. Missing the rally is uncomfortable. Reporting zero exposure to the winner can be even harder.
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To everyone still calling Ethereum dead ARK apparently missed the memo Last $ETH bear out, close the door
JUST IN: Cathie Wood's ARK Invest launches 24/7 tokenized venture fund on Ethereum
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Someone asked me if Circle Arc undermines the $ETH thesis My take: launching a blockchain is one thing. Replicating Ethereum liquidity, assets, financial apps + operating history is another Competition is real So are network effects This sounds like a bear-market conversation My bet remains $ETH Every dip is getting bought
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Still waiting for clarity? The CFTC is spelling it out for you. GO. TIME. $BTC $ETH
It’s GO TIME. The @CFTC is utilizing its existing statutory authorities to establish a crypto asset regulatory market structure. @POTUS promised clear rules of the road for crypto and we are shipping them.
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You don’t help build $TSLA and $SPCX without thinking a decade ahead. In 2019, Ethereum had his curiosity. We don’t know what he saw. But seven years later, that question is worth revisiting. What happens when the people building the future start wanting a piece of the infrastructure behind it? $ETH 👀
Replying to @VitalikButerin
What should be developed on Ethereum?
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If your AI thesis stops at chips and data centers, read this….. BlackRock is exploring how AI agents will pay for data, compute and services. And explicitly discusses how $ETH could benefit from growing onchain activity. The machines will need a way to pay. That’s why Ethereum belongs in the AI conversation. Do your DD blackrock.com/us/individual/…
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48 hours without tweeting about $ETH $BMNR or $SBET Hope you enjoyed the silence
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The Book of Ethereum (@Bookof_Eth) published this chart, and it honestly blew me away. 291 projects, protocols and communities. An ecosystem spanning finance, payments, lending, identity, tokenized assets and much more. Independent teams building businesses on shared infrastructure. Each new application can connect with what already exists. If you invest in the Magnificent Seven, take a closer look. Here is where I see potential connections: • $NVDA - AI agents buying compute, paying for services and transacting around the clock. • $MSFT - Enterprise agents connecting business workflows with contracts, payments and settlement. • $GOOGL - Cloud infrastructure and agent commerce. Google Cloud already offers Ethereum nodes. • $AMZN - Global commerce, merchant payments and cloud infrastructure. AWS already supports Ethereum. • $AAPL - Wallets, payments and digital identity bringing onchain services into everyday life. • $META - Messaging, creator payments and commerce connecting people across borders. • $TSLA - Autonomous fleets and robots that could eventually pay for energy, data and services themselves. Ethereum and its L2s could provide shared financial infrastructure across parts of that economy. I keep thinking about @elonmusk asking Vitalik back in April 2019: “What should be developed on Ethereum?” Thinking a decade ahead? Wouldn’t be the first time. At the foundation sits $ETH paying transaction fees, serving as collateral and helping secure the network through staking. Ethereum’s explanation. Institutions understand infrastructure. As more of their business depends on Ethereum, owning and staking $ETH could become a strategic priority. And finally, governments. Tokenized sovereign debt. Public payments. Financial infrastructure. If those activities increasingly rely on Ethereum, participating in the network’s security could become a matter of national economic strategy. This is the institutional thesis I believe will win: ETH becoming a strategic commodity for an expanding onchain economy. I don’t think the market has priced this in. Most portfolios still own ZERO $ETH I think new ATHs are closer than many imagine. And the FOMO into $BMNR and $SBET could be massive. Do your DD. Ask your financial advisor why this hasn’t been part of the conversation. It’s your money.
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This is what a bull market looks like. The institutional upgrade is underway. The price upgrade will follow. When? When institutions realize how little $ETH is left to buy on exchanges. db.com/news/detail/20260916-…
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Ethereum’s next chapter: faster L1 slots and potentially >50% shorter finality times. The network is evolving. The next upgrade might be the market valuation $ETH
I am 13 weeks old today. Week 13 was filled with 20+ teams sharing why a Faster Ethereum L1 matters, research into potentially cutting finality times by more than half, and a lot of digging into what L2s and wallets need next.
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The institutional “problem” will be getting size when the rush to $ETH begins Just 5.4% of supply on spot exchanges. DATs accumulating. ETH staked Now imagine every investment committee saying BUY at once Good luck getting yesterday’s prices Every micro dip is being bought
Bullish case for $ETH: • Institutions are already deep in spot ETF holdings jumped from 3% to 10% of total supply in a year, and treasury vehicles keep stacking • Supply is tightening 30% of ETH is staked, exchange balances keep falling, and fee burns eat into issuance during busy periods • It's the settlement layer for stablecoins & RWAs most stablecoin volume + tokenized asset activity still routes through Ethereum + its L2s • Staking pays you to hold +3% yield just for sitting in the ecosystem while it grows • TLI Wave 3 target is $9200, after successfully completing Wave 2 below the 200 WMA. • Tokenisation for institutions WILL happen and it may happen outside of the US first as a proof of concept. $ETH buy, stake, hold.
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