the more I learn… the more I realize how much I don’t know - Einstein. Partner of @aionanalytics
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Our internal Crash Probability model on the S&P went from 4% to 15% in three weeks. Half the index is in a bear market from its highs. Eight models, zero bullish. Timestamped so we can grade it together over the next 20 trading days.
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“TRUMP REJECTS AI INTEGRATION WITH CHINA”
“TRUMP REJECTS IRANIAN CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL”
The cycle continues…
Given the amazing developments between the US and China/Iran today… you should probably ask yourself:
Is this time different? Are these developments real? And if so, why aren’t indices up a few percent on this amazing news?
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Remember guys it’s impossible for October to be red, midterms.
We’ve been talking about it all year.
Everybody knows it.
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Deep Inference retweeted
Happy Friday. Nothing has changed.
The market is selling off this morning, which is nice, but that would be missing the point.
The point is the data has pointed us into a period of elevated risk. Not one red day. A window.
Think big picture.
Whether this continues or bounces doesn't change that.
Let's take a look at the data. 🧵
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Deep Inference retweeted
Will the market go down today?
Here's a cheat sheet for you guys. I start every day by looking at it.
Something I've put decades of research into.
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Deep Inference retweeted
This.
If you're expecting the rug it's never gonna come.
We need to go higher first.
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Deep Inference retweeted
“if you're early it is useless”
Getting close to October
just some clarity post here for everyone
October expectation from my opinions & research is $SPY 5%ish drawdown and $QQQ 7-10% by end of oct around 18-22nd and put in the floor there for a choppy uptrend into eoy
Buying that dip with both hands
$SPY $730-$735 if it gets there
$QQQ $680-$690 (more volatile ik, maybe even $700)
These are my own rough estimates from what i am seeing so please take it with a grain of salt and DYOR.
Things can change and moves can extend due to panic and things unravel / accelerate.
Indices can visit near ATHs/make new AThs but i will be more risk off as i stated earlier this week, near interim tops high beta names can be explosive so i may play some things with small size. Weird market we have been in for a while.
I will take advantage of oct to sell puts on names i want along with taking some put debits when the time is right, if you're early it is useless.
Markets tend to extend both ways so if we get there, things accelerate the models wont flinch until it starts to see a flip, it is better to be patient than to be early
Looking for model consensus flips, extreme measures hitting, heatmaps starting to flip and macro regime to shift
These are some of the things i look for along with analogues/quant tab that has the built in indicators as well
Can eat my alive in the comments, but that is my thesis and i believe big in "avoid ruin at all costs", so when these bigger windows for pain open up i take them seriously.
Hope this helps and if you want to eat me alive in the comments that also works
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Deep Inference retweeted
Our internal Crash Probability model on the S&P went from 4% to 15% in three weeks. Half the index is in a bear market from its highs. Eight models, zero bullish. Timestamped so we can grade it together over the next 20 trading days.
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Deep Inference retweeted
On March 4 I ran $NVDA through the Monte Carlo in the Aion Terminal. It was trading at 180. The median path said 213 in three months.
I just went back and checked. June 4, three months to the day, it traded at 213.
Not close to it. At it.
That same terminal is pointed at the S&P right now, and it does not like what it sees. My second article is out, and pinned to my profile.
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