Most people think crypto's addressable market is what it is today. They're wrong. I sat down with @richwgalvin of DACM to explore why the reset may finally be ending, and why the application layer could be the most mispriced trade in the market right now. As ever, please enjoy!

gm @Citadel

Finally get to say it: @coinbase tokenized stocks are live, and @aeroxyz is their liquidity hub. They represent a paradigm shift: most tokenized stocks to date were synthetics, debt claims, or derivatives --these are beneficial claims on the real thing. A game changer. 🛫

This time last year we made the decision to verticalize It was the biggest and most challenging decision I've had to make as a founder. Many thought it was the wrong call, reasonably so, it was a big risk However, I'm now confident in saying it was absolutely the right decision. Getting closer to the users is what had the biggest impact. So so so much more work to do but the traction is enough to give me confidence in this decision: - $5.5B in perps volume - 3k DAUs - $10M ARR in July And RISE chain now processes more transactions and gas than any other EVM chain every day, and the next wave of chain apps are launching imminently

base:0xed664536023d8e4b1640c394777d34abaff1df8f just printed 100B+ tokens in a single day. That number is the proof. Peer-to-Pool and sharded decentralized inference verification are not whitepaper words anymore. They are running in production, at Venice-tier throughput, on a live decentralized GPU pool. Price that output at OpenRouter floor rates (single-model, Qwen 3.6 35B) and it is ~$27M/year, 100% routed to POD buybacks. Before the basket. Before the API is even live. Now price it against the market on revenue multiple: > HYPE: ~$15B cap on ~$625M revenue. ~24x. Routes ~97% of revenue to buybacks. > VVV: ~$616M cap on ~$60M revenue. ~10x. > POD: ~$15M cap on ~$27M speculative revenue. ~0.5x. The market pays 24 dollars for a dollar of Hyperliquid's revenue, 10 for a dollar of Venice's, and 50 cents for a dollar of Dolphin's. Same category, same near-total buyback design as HYPE, and POD is priced at a fraction of both.

Saylor faces a three-body problem imo - he can't indefinitely support all of equity, BTC and the preferred/debt stack. The only real "fix" was a multi-year cash buffer but he seems incapable of sitting on that. My guess is he protects BTC the most - for philosophical reasons and also its the most connected to the other two - but that takes a lot of capital from equity and/or pref if he can raise it. At his size financial engineering miracles can happen...but its a material overhang for forseeable future. Like a lot of operators with his character type, eventually they fly too close to the sun - but it's the same trait that got them that high in the first place.

Basically the cost of market making now is $20 Claude subscription and a few hours of your time. Another example @richwgalvin spun up a market maker in a weekend with no coding experience and now provides meaningful liquidity to Bullet.

i'm not in Saylor's inner circle, but this $MSTR story has gotten so out of hand, my only guess is this: - MSTR could have sat and done nothing before they started pumping out $billons of prefs... it would have made MSTR boring (little buys, no sells), but it would have been stable nitter.net/jdorman81/status/19959… - But the push into these prefs was based on him clearly thinking $BTC was about to moon — not sure what he saw to think that (4 year cycle, flows, ???) but that's the only reason to take that sort of miscalculated risk to screw up his balance sheet so badly -- he must have thought BTC was about to fly and he could easily pay the pref dividends with future BTC sales. - Then BTC started falling, and the market got spooked because the $15 bn in prefs have a $1.5 bn/year annual dividend, so he raised $2 bn in cash via stock just to alleviate any near-term default concerns — that bought him almost 2 years of runway to pay dividends. Smart move At that point, he could have chilled for a little, and even though he now has every stakeholder pinned against each other, there was at least no near term risk nitter.net/jdorman81/status/20342… - But then for some unknown reason, he decides to take that cash buffer and buyback 2029 maturity bonds instead of using it to fund the annual dividends (at a discount, so it's at least mildly accretive to MSTR). This is a baffling decision for a company with cash flow problems. Why pay off 0% coupon debt with the only cash you have? The only bull case is that underestimating Saylor's capital markets chicanery has been a losing proposition for years. Maybe there was a plan? That plan may just be selling BTC, which he will have to do eventually, but if he does this while BTC is in a death spriral it's going to crush BTC and MSTR. So again, why buyback the debt now and force your hand sooner than you have to? Maybe he is going to refinance those converts with new longer-dated converts? He has sworn off converts, so I doubt it, but that would at least logically make sense. But TLDR -- this is the first time that MSTR, BTC and Pref holders are really in bind. Someone is going to lose badly here, and it will happen in the next 4 months.

The shift in the crypto fundraising landscape the past 6 months has been insane. Crypto VCs used to have to constantly be networking/writing/podcasting/going on spaces/promoting your thesis/getting on 10 deal flow calls a week, to get into good deals...now it's literally enough to just have capital to write checks. Deals are being pushed rather than dug out. Inbound if people know you have money is at an all-time high. Most firms are either 1) Out of money 2) Moved to Series A and beyond or 3) Fundraising (with no success). Deals that used to close in 2-3 weeks now close in 2-3 months. Firms with questionable business models or copy pasta of the latest trend are getting zero primary or follow-on funding (Good news!). There are now realistically <20 firms writing checks in pre-seed/seed. VCs basically have the pick of any deal they want, with more time to do DD. IMHO 25/26 are going to be historic vintages for those who stick around.

The strengths of $SHFL: - considerable real value being delivered to the token (more than most cryptocurrencies can claim) - strong, crypto-native team The weaknesses of $SHFL: - one centralised source of value - total supply too high, too much locked in treasury - generally low confidence in gamblefi from the market This year is about converting these weaknesses to strengths; I have a feeling that solving the first two leads to the third following suit. More to come.