Markets, macro & asset analysis — my research, my positions, my opinions. Not financial advice, not a recommendation.
- Tweets 548
- Following 63
- Followers 105
- Likes 244
Pinned Tweet
How I read markets.
Not a shopping list.
Positions move. The filter doesn't.
Four areas I still want when today's winners, rails and settlement look old:
• AI + robotics
• Energy
• Blockchain / BTC rails
• Biotech / longevity
Multi-decade view.
Circle of competence first. Then size.
Not financial advice.
1
849
TSMC on a log chart.
A lot of the great compounders look like a straight line on log. Steady exponential. Amazon, Apple, Google for long stretches.
This one is not sitting on a straight line.
The slope is steepening. Growth rate itself looks like it is accelerating.
I have not seen many charts do that on log. That is the interesting part, not the total return since listing.
Watching it. Financials and competitors next. Personal book only if the numbers hold.
Not financial advice.
1
14
Adirindin retweeted
I have known @Scaramucci for years.
He has a rare combination of Italian humor, Italian intellect, and Italian poetic writing.
No one does it better.
Get a copy of his new book All The Wrong Moves.
Hardcover: amzn.to/4rrdYwj
Audiobook: amzn.to/4h6SLnQ
105
20
591
85,340
Adirindin retweeted
And 2026 will mark an important point in the book.
18 years ago, @Phil_J_Anderson published The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking and mapped out the 18-year real estate cycle that most investors still don't see coming.
Happy 18th anniversary to the book that's still ahead of the curve!
2
2
14
950
Since 6 October, Bitcoin has been going down.
Every rally printed a lower high. Until this one.
Price tagged a daily high just over US$87,000. That took out the May ~US$82,800 swing for the first time in nearly a year.
It has now closed multiple days above that level and is sitting on it. That line is the one to watch. Breaks back under it would look like weakness. Holding above it is more strength than a lot of people allowed for.
The move out of the US$60k region was fast after months of chopping there. It trapped people who were waiting and did not want to chase.
I had already flagged an accelerated breakout across the whole Bitcoin move. This still looks like Bitcoin doing what it usually does.
All assets respond to activity behind the scenes.
Bitcoin just does it louder.
Growing adoption, rising demand, fixed supply.
It is hypersensitive to money supply, liquidity and policy. It has also done strange, useful things in wars and supply shocks.
Even if you do not own it, that behaviour is worth watching.
I watch all of it. Bonds. Pokémon cards. Collectables.
I am trying to understand why people buy and sell what they do, then forecast the next behaviour well enough that my purchasing power does not quietly die.
Not financial advice.
63
Adirindin retweeted
AI is pouring money into the economy at an extraordinary speed.
$450B spent in 2025.
$900B expected this year.
And potentially $1.4T by 2027.
But here’s the interesting part.
We’ve seen this story before.
In the 1840s, Railway Mania sent huge amounts of capital into railways. But beneath the stock market boom was another boom: land.
Railways needed land. Stations needed land. New towns needed land.
The AI boom could have a similar story hiding underneath it. We urge you to read Akhil’s book about the stage of the cycle.
The Secret Wealth Advantage – Page 156
Chapter 10: The Land Boom
3
6
30
1,853
Grok @Bot usage is growing faster than anything we’ve ever seen
News: SpaceXAI's Grok Bot hits 418,000 weekly users ending Sept. 14, WoW growth of 24% through that date. It was outlined in a presentation by SpaceXAI staff last week in London.
A sign of modest but early demand for a key product
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2,040
2,922
35,334
47,673,749
Beta site’s up.
Charts and tools I actually use for market research — cycles, relative returns, the desks I run my own process through.
adirindinfinance.com
Not financial advice.
81
How I use the 18.6-year land / property cycle.
Not a prediction engine.
Not a valuation model.
Not a timing signal.
It is a schematic of a historical pattern.
Homer Hoyt mapped it first in 1930s Chicago land prices. Fred Harrison revived it and took it across the UK, US, Japan and Australia — The Power in the Land (1983), then Boom Bust (2005). Phil Anderson is why a lot of charts now say 18.6 and label the last two years of the boom the Winner’s Curse (The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking).
The shape those writers described is recovery → mid-cycle slowdown → land boom → downturn. Roughly 14 years up. About 4 years down.
That is a study framework. One of several cycle tools I use when I am speculating about where we sit in a long credit / land loop. The yellow years on the graphic are the current lap of that schematic. Framework dates. Not forecasts.
I care whether live prices rhyme with the shape. I do not treat a year on a diagram as “due.”
Not financial advice.
1
129
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National: 1989 peak, 2006 peak, 2012 trough, 2022 local high, then another grind into a February 2026 record near 332. June 2026 print 331.89 — flat, not a collapse.
Same rule as the AU chart. This is the actual price path. The 18.6 diagram is the theory overlay people put on top of paths like this.
1
31
This is the home builder chart, not the house-price index.
23 Sep 2026 close $140.17. 52-week range $131.75–$176.22. About 20% under the high. July: FY26 revenue guide cut to $32.5–33.0bn, closings 83.8–84.3k. Q3 EPS $3.20 vs $3.36. Orders basically flat. Cancellations up. Incentives still on.
That is demand and affordability showing up in the largest US builder. It is not a proof the 18.6 clock just struck.
Not financial advice just research and observations.
14
