Sports betting info and takes from a dumb guy that might help another dumb guy, Skol Vikings @+EVtimothy on TikTok

Minnesota
Sneaky spot in Texans vs Colts now that Nico is officially out, Jared Wayne over 15.5 Rec and I'm laddering to 25Yds +200, 40Yds +450 50Yds +750 all on Kalshi Wayne is probably something you haven't heard of but he ran a route 50% last week vs the Bengals got 7 targets and finished with 2/33, Colts have played Man Coverage at a top 5 rate through 2 weeks and even though Dalton Schultz had a monster game last week getting 14 targets none of those came on his 10 routes vs Man Coverage and he's generally been worse vs Man overall Wayne had 7 routes vs Man and was targeted on 3 of them with an ADOT of 10.33, Colts have allowed the most pass yds through 2 games and a bottom 5 pressure rate so CJ might have a little time in a dome😎 Definitely worth a shot IMO and if you're new to betting, or just an FYI, when you make bets like this, the quick injury snipe type bets, try to do them on prediction markets because this type of bet will lead to getting limited at soft books
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Little Ole me top 5% of bettors on Pikkit for TNF Falcons vs Packers
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Hot take, as someone that watches a lot of film i absolute hate Prime Vision, most likely because I'm a degen that has way too much $ on every game, but that half second sweat of is he throwing to my guy is awesome, it's like when you make a semi bluff on the flop in hold-em and get called, the moments waiting for the turn or river especially are amazing or brutal depending on the outcome
I cannot emphasize enough how much Prime Vision is must-watch for any TNF game. You can see stuff you're never going to see on a broadcast to understand how plays are developing.
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A kick has never been more screwed from the word go, the Falcons only had 10 men on the field, and buddy comes free instantly
The @AtlantaFalcons block the kick! @ATLvsGB on Prime Video Stream on @NFLPlus
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Cash The Watson Ladder and the London Ladder, side note, Drake London is pretty much the best WR in the league when Penix starts since the beginning of last year
I've shared a lot of data on reasons to like Drake London and Christian Watson on TNF so it's no surprise I'm playing both of them tonight Played London at 59.5 but the best number is 65.5 -106 No Vig right now still like it there Played Watson at 62.5, but current best number is 68.5 -114 at Bet Rivers, still like it there but not as much just because I'm a little worried about the Packers O-Line currently ranked 32nd by PFF not giving Jordan Love any time, still a play IMO though I'm laddering both guys to 80 individually + this little FD bonus thing i had, not a parlay endorsement,
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Falcons are generating great pressure rates while missing several key guys, this defense is gonna be terrifying if they ever get to full strength
According to @NextGenStats, the Falcons defense recorded 15 quick pressures vs Green Bay tonight, 2nd most in any game this season. The most was 17—which the Vikings defense put up against Green Bay.
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Kaleb Johnson under 10.5 Longest rush was sweat-free. How dare books disrespect Divine Deablo with a line like this
Taking Kaleb Johnson under 10.5 Longest Rush -105 at Score for TNF Falcons vs Packers Packers have a 3 man Backfield but Johnson got the most Attm last week with 8, Coach MLF has said he wants to use more zone concepts with Johnson which is perfect for this bet. Because the Falcons finished last season 7th best in YPC to Zone Concepts, and 4th best in EXP RUN% Vs Zone, So far this season they are 1 of only 4 teams to not allow an Explosive Zone run and rank 5th best vs zone overall allowing just 3.05 YPC and 40% Success rate 9th best And FYI all those Last season numbers improve when Divine Deablo is on the field for The Falcons, when he missed time last year the run defense tanked, but still ended up with good overall numbers because of how good it was with him Important for this bet Per @FantasyPtsData EXP RUN% with Deablo 8.8% 6th best last season EXP RUN% without Deablo 13.3% 6th worst last season👀👀 I didn't even get to the Packers injury riddled O-line, mostly because I just wanted to talk about how insanely underrated Divine Deablo is😄😄
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+EVtimothy retweeted
Guys, stop making fun of the Packers. The refs are the only reason the Falcons won. The NFL is shadow penalizing the Packers for rostering Jacobs.
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I gave out out 4 props for TNF Falcons vs Packers Christian Watson over 62.5 70+✅️ 80+✅️ Drake London over 59.5✅️ 70+✅️ 80+✅️ Kaleb Johnson under 10.5 Longest rush✅️✅️ never a fucking doubt Sky Moore over 10.5✅️ 20+✅️ 30+✅️ 40+😮‍💨 Absolutely crushed last TNF too so in honor of the I am March meme, I AM TNF 🤣🤣
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Cash every single London prop you ever had ✅️✅️ Drake London continues his God like dominance vs Zone with Penix
Here's some info you might find helpful for TNF ATL vs GB Last seasons Drake London and Kyle Pitts played in 9 games with Michael Penix as the QB In the 9 games Pitts and London had pretty crazy splits vs Man/Zone Coverage Per @FantasyPtsData Vs Man Coverage Pitts 23.4% TGT 1.89, YPRR 0.25, TPRR 21% AY Share London 23.4% TGT 0.91 YPRR 0.23 TPRR 23% AY Share VS Zone Coverage Pitts 16.4% TGT 1.20 YPRR 0.18 TPRR 14.4% AY Share London 31.8% TGT 3.76 YPRR 0.35 TPRR 48.1% AY Share 👀 Greenbay is playing Zone 84% of the time through 2 weeks and I don't see that changes significantly seeing as Gannon the Packers DC played over 70% Zone each of his last 2 years in AZ London🤟 Pitts😮‍💨
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Cash Drake London over 59.5 or any number you got him at
Early TNF Thoughts, Drake London in his last 6 games with Michael Penix starting averages 7/108/1TD🤯🤯
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Sky Moore over 10.5 Rec✅️ 20+✅️ now we hopefully keep climbing
Late Add for TNF ATL vs GB Taking Sky Moore over 10.5 Rec and a little ladder to 40Yds +680 DK, here's the breakdown He ran 16 routes last week 50% RTE Share and had 3 Targets 43 AYs, he is basically the WR3 now with Reed out Packers have had a hard time running the ball and the Falcons have been good against the run so far this season that should = plenty of passing situations Moore has run 47% of his routes from the slot where ATL has given up the 9th most FPs & Yds through 2 games Finally the Packers O-Line has been awful so it's possible Kraft will have to stay in protection more than usual
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Im fucking begging Packers media to stop bitching about the refs, your team has given up 140 1st half rush yards, your line can't protect anything, that might be a bigger reason ur down 10 at half
Love hit in the head harder than Penix. No flag. Someone, somewhere has something against the Packers... and its obvious
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These stats I brought up about Jordan Love under pressure seem pretty relevant right now #TNF
Falcons play the Packers on TNF and while it's obviously been a rough start for ATL 1 thing they have been able to do is get pressure on the QB without blitzing. According to @NextGenStats Falcons are blitzing at the 4th lowest rate 19.2% but pressuring the QB 41.5% 7th best, and Fantasy pts has them as the 3rd best at 43.2%, why is this important??? Well, Jordan Love has a banged up O-Line that just lost another starter on Sunday, RT Bako-Bewele, Love has not been great when pressured going back to last season, of 34 QBs that played in at least 10 GMs on pressured DBs Love ranks...... 34th in Pass TDs 1 31st in Comp% 41.9 32nd in QB Rating 53.6 25th in Succ% 34.1 12th Highest OFF TGT% 22.9 Pretty rough numbers, but its Not all bad there is some numbers were he looks better EPA/DB 11th -0.181 Pass Yds 11th 1034 ADOT 12th 11.18 DEEP% 9th 16.2% If the Falcons can pressure Love they might just be able to cover that 6.5 spread
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Is it just me or does Penix look real sassy right before he throws? Might be the lefty release IDK
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That kick never stood a chance, like it was 100% blocked from Go, 25 years of watching football and I can't remember the Packers ever being this bad at blocking
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This is textbook roughing the passer; if it does not get called it's simply a missed call
Imagine thinking this is roughing the passer. Same as week 1 in Minnesota. A 3rd down stop flips to a touchdown for the offense because a BS penalty. If you're gonna get called for this crap GET YOUR DAMN MONEYS WORTH!
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The worst thing Fox has ever produced and imagine the territory that takes in, Vikings 25th ranked defense????
The Vikings are ranked WHAT?!
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