ICYMI: Equis released today an analysis of Latino voters in the 2022 midterms. Read a summary here! medium.com/@equisresearch/20…

This week’s episode of America Actually is about Latino voters! We talk with @stephanievalenc of Equis Research and Democratic congressional candidate @MannyRutinel Here’s some of what we learned:

The Latino Vote Is Up For Grabs During the decade that Donald Trump has dominated American politics, no major part of the electorate has changed as dramatically as Latino voters. According to Pew’s validated voter data, Democrats’ advantage among Latinos fell from 38 percentage points in 2016 to just 3 points in 2024. Other sources show smaller swings, but the conclusion is the same: The rightward movement among Latino voters was larger than the shift within any other major group defined by age, race, gender or education. That transformation overturned much of the conventional wisdom formed during the Obama years. Latinos could no longer be treated as a reliably Democratic constituency, nor could immigration be assumed to determine their votes. On today's GD POLITICS episode, I spoke with @carlosodio, co-founder of Equis Research and author of the newsletter The New Dynamic, about what changed and what both parties still misunderstand. Carlos argues that the shift was not simply a reaction to one campaign, candidate or message. Trump benefited from broader class and cultural divides reshaping electorates across Western democracies. Latino voters were subject to many of the same forces pulling other working-class voters to the right, but their long-standing Democratic allegiance delayed the movement. Immigration matters, but it’s not the most important issue. Carlos also distinguishes between attitudes toward immigrants already established in the country and attitudes toward people seeking to enter. Latino voters can support a pathway to citizenship for longtime residents while also favoring stricter control of the border. In 2024, the latter concern dominated. Democrats have since regained some ground, but Carlos cautions against overinterpreting low-turnout elections. Republicans probably now have a higher floor among Latinos than they did before Trump. At the same time, many Latino voters remain genuinely persuadable and traditional campaign models often fail to identify them. Neither party has a lock on Latino voters anymore. What happens next will depend, in part, on what each chooses to do about it.

Most of Trump’s Hispanic gains came from vote-switching. But nearly 9/10 of those switchers wouldn't fit the campaign criteria for a persuasion target. What we saw in 2024, and why more people should be talking about the Steitz Voter...

Equis never released a 2024 post-mortem. We came to realize we needed to wrap our minds around an era, not an election. Out of that comes The New Dynamic, a project from me & @RachelMStein1 to look at Latino voters (and the broader electorate) with fresh eyes.

🎧NEW Odd Years pod! @amyewalter talks with @carlosodio about what new polling from @EquisResearch reveals about Latino perceptions of Trump and the economy - and what it all means for 2026. Listen: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…

Jack (@jherrerx) is always a must-read. Glad to be in this one alongside @mariadfq @ChuckRocha @madrid_mike Links below to article + the Beyond the Ballot project from @EquisResearch

In the NYT today talking about the midterms alongside some smart ppl. Data, to us at @EquisResearch, is about perspective, not prophecy. Here you get a little of both. Surprised to find myself more bullish for Dems than others!

“Some Latinos slipped away from Republicans with potential for more to go, too, if things continue as they are,” Odio said. “Latinos haven’t taken a seat. They’re still in motion. Equis' @carlosodio in the Washington Post‼️

New from @julito77 for @LatNewsletter New Equis Poll Shows Rising Latino Disapproval of Trump and No Gains for Democrats thelatinonewsletter.org/p/ne…

"Latinos have never belonged to Democrats" #CrookedCon2025

Carlos Odio: Democrats should not repeat the past mistake of "flattening any voters down to one dimension." #crookedcon2025

“During the government shutdown where employees are being furloughed, these government entities are still spending millions of dollars on advertising on TV and digital platforms.” Equis' @nataliacamposv in Rolling Stone‼️

on what we can actually learn about Hispanic and Latino voters from Tuesday's elections, with @carlosodio : vox.com/politics/467567/lati…

Safe to say after tonight's results that Trump discontent isn't a polling mirage. Partial end-of-night #s have Sherrill coming in at around '21 levels in key Hispanic cities in NJ: in aggregate, higher than '20/'24, but lower than '16/'17. Tape rewound a bit heading into '26.

Actual vote totals are going to be a better guide here. Even the *partial* Hudson county numbers show turnout was up in the most Hispanic municipalities (in bold).

NJ election is the first real measure of Latino support since last year. A test of whether the Trump discontent in polls is re-shaping behavior heading into '26: will Sherrill come in closer to '21 or '24 in Hispanic bellwethers? Here are cities to watch. Note '24 vs. prior.

“Equis’ research shows 56% of Latino men now disapprove of Trump — the same coalition that swung for Trump last year. And pocketbook issues rank among the top reasons why. ‘The cost of living was by far Trump’s weakest area,’” @mariadfq told Playbook.🗣️ 🖱️weareequis.us/research/memo-…