Can Stripe build Circle before Circle builds Stripe?
There’s an opportunity for someone to use a regulated, USD-backed stablecoin to significantly disrupt the global payments ecosystem.
This is not a big direct revenue generation opportunity because the economics of stablecoins aren’t that good (especially if there’s any competition). However, it is a big indirect revenue generation opportunity if you can stack value-add services on top of a ubiquitous stablecoin rail.
Circle is well on its way to owning that regulated, USD-backed stablecoin rail. More recently, it has been working to build out those value-add services (CCTP, CPN, USYC, agentic payments capabilities, etc.)
Stripe obviously has a ton of value-add payments services already built. It has been working to retrofit those services for stablecoins and to build new, stablecoin-native value-add services.
The problem for Stripe is that it doesn’t control the underlying stablecoin payment rail. Circle does and it has been working to vertically integrate it in order to lock the Stripes of the world out of the more lucrative opportunities higher up in the stack.
Stripe’s initial response was to acquire Bridge and (through Bridge) to issue its own stablecoin (USDB).
What Stripe seems to have realized is that this strategy for building out the Circle side of its business is going to take too long. Circle has too big of a lead.
So, Stripe has taken a page out of the big banks’ book and has launched a consortium (Open Standard) which will develop its own regulated, USD-backed payment stablecoin (OUSD) to compete with Circle. It has convinced quite a few other companies to be a part of the consortium as well, including Adyen, Visa, Mastercard, American Express, U.S. Bank, Coinbase, Google, and Shopify.
Stripe is incentivizing participation by creating a somewhat-decentralized governance structure for Open Standard and is incentivizing adoption by eliminating fees to mint and redeem and sharing nearly all the float revenue with the partners who are using OUSD.
Essentially, Stripe is teaming up with everyone who makes money in any part of the payments stack (except Circle) and creating a new stablecoin business model that makes stablecoin issuance unsurvivable as a standalone business.
This puts Circle in a tough spot, because, unlike Stripe, Circle can’t adopt a consortium-style approach to building out the Stripe side of its business. It needs to own that side of the business, which means it needs to build (or acquire) it itself.
OUSD isn’t guaranteed to succeed. It has some massive execution and governance challenges ahead of it. And regulators will have their say, at some point. But it is an indicator of how important Stripe (and its partners) think regulated, USD-backed stablecoins are as foundational payments infrastructure.