FLORIDA 2026 GUBERNATORIAL PROJECTION Nov 2024 Registration- 🔴+1,077,927 Registration Today- 🔴+1,545,358 Net Change since 2024- 🔴+467,431 2024 Election- 🔴Trump +13.1 Key Race: Senate- Byron Donalds (R) vs David Jolly (D) ***Long Post Warning/Analysis Inside*** Over the next month until the midterms, I will be projecting Governor/Senate Races based off of a combination of registration trends, historical data, mail/early voting trends, and candidate strengths. These predictions will be independent of polling. So we will see how this version of projecting races compares against the struggling polling industry. This race is of particular interest to me because three polling firms have shown Jolly leading or tied in the race. Those three firms are Hart Research Associates (D), St. Pete Polls, and Change Research (D). Registration Trends- The GOP has added a net of over 467k registrations since the 2024 election. Interestingly enough, Dems have actually lost voters since the 2024 elections. The GOP has also outregistered the Dems in every single month over the last two years except the most recent update. What was once a lead of over 300k regs for the Dems back in 2016 has been flipped on its head as the state has become a rightwing firebrand and stronghold. Advantage Donalds. Historical Data- The last time a Democrat won a gubernatorial election in Florida was back in 1992 when the Democrats won by 1%. DeSantis recently carried the state in 2022 by 20%. This state has been voting purple in recent decades but the GOP has had a stranglehold on gubernatorial power for the last 30 years. And although the elections for governor have been close historically, the state has never been this red. Advantage Donalds. EV Trends- The GOP has actually improved on their mail voting from 2024 in terms of percentage so far in 2026. This is a great sign for the GOP, even if we assume that indies break more towards them Dems in this election compared to 2024 (a safe bet to make). For Jolly to be competitive in this state he would really need to be getting a significant enthusiasm gap with Dem voters showing up in bigger numbers by percentage than 2024, and he is not getting that. Advantage Donalds. Candidate Strengths- The Democrats never get tired of running party switchers in Florida and David Jolly is another one. He left the party in 2018 saying that Trump was a “racist” and “wrong for the country.” He doesn’t just flip flop parties but also his views. He was strictly against abortion, believing that life “begins at conception”, but he now supports abortions up to 24 weeks. He also has said that he is anti-second amendment and would not support a ban on sex change treatments for minors. Of course, he is trying to paint himself as a moderate option to the people of Florida, but I doubt they will be fooled. Donalds on the other hand has vowed to be a MAGA Republican, support ICE, and continue the policies that DeSantis has put forth in Florida. Donalds is a better fit for the people of Florida. Advantage Donalds. Bottom Line- Due to the fact that the GOP has such a strong registration edge and the fact that they are performing to expectations in the mail voting so far, it leaves little hope for Jolly to win this race. Despite some polls showing this as a race Jolly can win, when you examine the historical data and look at the crossover appeal of each candidate, it really leads us to one conclusion, a comfortable Donalds win. Race Projection: R 🔴 - Byron Donalds by 8%

FLORIDA 2026 SENATE PROJECTION Nov 2024 Registration- 🔴+1,077,927 Registration Today- 🔴+1,545,358 Net Change since 2024- 🔴+467,431 2024 Election- 🔴 Trump +13.1 Key Race: Senate- Ashley Moody (R) vs Angie Nixon (D) ***Long Post Warning/Analysis Inside*** Over the next month until the midterms, I will be projecting Governor/Senate Races based off of a combination of registration trends, historical data, mail/early voting trends, and candidate strengths. These predictions will be independent of polling. So we will see how this version of projecting races compares against the struggling polling industry. This race is of particular interest to me because two polling firms have shown Nixon tied in the election. Those two firms are St. Pete Polls and Change Research (D). Registration Trends- The GOP has added a net of over 467k registrations since the 2024 election. Interestingly enough, Dems have actually lost voters since the 2024 elections. The GOP has also outregistered the Dems in every single month over the last two years except the most recent update. What was once a lead of over 300k regs for the Dems back in 2016 has been flipped on its head as the state has become a rightwing firebrand and stronghold. Advantage Moody. Historical Data- No Democrat has won a statewide federal race since 2012, however the Dems held the registration edge in the state at that time. The last time a Democrat presidential candidate carried the state was back in 2012 when Obama won the presidency. Trump recently carried the state in 2024 by 13.1%. This state has been voting purple in recent decades but the GOP has had a stranglehold on power for the last decade. These recent shifts have been fast and furious and are likely to hold up even in the event of national blue wave. Advantage Moody. EV Trends- The GOP has actually improved on their mail voting from 2024 in terms of percentage so far in 2026. This is a great sign for the GOP, even if we assume that indies break more towards them Dems in this election compared to 2024 (a safe bet to make). For Nixon to be competitive in this state she would really need to be getting a significant enthusiasm gap with Dem voters showing up in bigger numbers by percentage than 2024, and she is not getting that. Advantage Moody. Candidate Strengths- Angie Nixon is a self-proclaimed DSA candidate. She has campaigned on abolishing ICE, freezing the rent, unlimited access to abortion, and universal healthcare. The GOP candidate Ashley Moody is the incumbent and was appointed to the senate seat by Ron DeSantis when Marco Rubio became SOS. She has a long track record of stellar electoral performances and served as the AG for the state of Florida before becoming a senator. She will be very hard to defeat. Advantage Moody. Bottom Line- Due to the fact that the GOP has such a strong registration edge and the fact that they are performing to expectations in the mail voting so far, it leaves little hope for a radical DSA candidate like Nixon. Combine that with the strong electoral track record and popularity of Ashley Moody, and the math just isn’t there for this race to even be competitive. This is going to be a blowout despite what some terrible polling groups have put out there. Race Projection: Safe R 🔴 – Ashley Moody by 10%+

Based on the Early Vote data from Ohio I have seen so far (diminished Black and youth turnout), the registration trends for the country over the last two years, and accounting for the political environment/election fundamentals. What DR said is where I have had the race more or less, I think we are looking at a Husted win by 3% or a bit more, and the exact same (or very similar) margin for Vivek. An older, whiter electorate will dampen the supposed "blue wave."

**PA WEEKLY VOTER REG UPDATE** 10/5-10/12 Net🔵+7,752 Overall Lead🔵+60,941 Gains Since Dec 24🔴+69,978 Very rough week for the GOP in PA. Lost nearly every county and actually lost net voters for the whole week. Dems continue to surge down the stretch here. The only silver lining here is that the GOP is still up since 2024.

OKLAHOMA 2026 GUBERNATORIAL PROJECTION Nov 2024 Registration- 🔴+606,286 Registration Today- 🔴+681,239 Net Change since 2024- 🔴+74,953 2024 Election- 🔴 Trump +34.26 Key Race: Governor- Mike Mazzei (R) vs Cyndi Munson (D) ***Long Post Warning/Analysis Inside*** Over the next month until the midterms, I will be projecting Governor/Senate Races based off of a combination of registration trends, historical data, mail/early voting trends, and candidate strengths. These predictions will be independent of polling. So we will see how this version of projecting races compares against the struggling polling industry. Registration Trends- The GOP has added a net of almost 75k registrations since the 2024 election. The GOP has also outregistered the Dems in the most recent monthly update, meaning the Dems have not capitalized on the momentum that is present in many other states nationwide. The GOP has a supermajority in the state and outnumbers Dems and Independents combined. Advantage Mazzei. Historical Data- No Democrat has won a statewide gubernatorial race since 2006. This is a strong state for the GOP for any gubernatorial race. The last time the state of Oklahoma voted for a Democrat presidential candidate was in 1964 with LBJ. The closest governor election since 2006 was R+12, so that does not bode well for Munson. Advantage Mazzei. EV Trends- Not much to note in Oklahoma. IPEV begins on Oct 28th. Mail voting has begun but there is no data available so far. Candidate Strengths- Neither candidate has an incumbency advantage. Mazzei is running on reducing taxes and eliminating the state income tax. He has described himself as a “MAGA warrior” and has earned Trump’s endorsement. It should be noted that he narrowly won a hotly contested primary against a more moderate Republican that will almost certainly cost him some votes among the softer Republicans in the state. Munson on the other hand, won her primary rather easily and is trying to position herself as a “moderate” option. However, she supports raising taxes to help fund education, trans children legislation, and has vowed to bring back DEI to the state of Oklahoma. I doubt Oklahoma will be fooled. Advantage Mazzei. Bottom Line- There is no reason to believe that Oklahoma is in an environment that would put Mazzei at serious risk. The state is more red than it was in 2024, the history of the state favors the GOP, and the candidate profile of Mazzei should put him over the top comfortably. Race Projection: Safe R 🔴 – Mike Mazzei by 10%+

OKLAHOMA 2026 SENATE PROJECTION Nov 2024 Registration- 🔴+606,286 Registration Today- 🔴+681,239 Net Change since 2024- 🔴+74,953 2024 Election- 🔴 Trump +34.3% Key Race: Governor- Kevin Hern (R) vs N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) ***Long Post Warning/Analysis Inside/DSA Candidate Warning*** Over the next month until the midterms, I will be projecting Governor/Senate Races based off of a combination of registration trends, historical data, mail/early voting trends, and candidate strengths. These predictions will be independent of polling. So we will see how this version of projecting races compares against the struggling polling industry. Registration Trends- The GOP has added a net of almost 75k registrations since the 2024 election. The GOP has also outregistered the Dems in the most recent monthly update, meaning the Dems have not capitalized on the momentum that is present in many other states nationwide. The GOP has a supermajority in the state and outnumbers Dems and Independents combined. Advantage Hern. Historical Data- No Democrat has won a statewide federal race since 1990. This is a strong state for the GOP for any statewide federal race. The last time the state of Oklahoma voted for a Democrat presidential candidate was in 1964 with LBJ. The closest federal election since the year 2000 was R+11, so that does not bode well for Thomas. Advantage Hern. EV Trends- Not much to note in Oklahoma. IPEV begins on Oct 28th. Mail voting has begun but there is no data available so far. Candidate Strengths- Neither candidate has an incumbency advantage, but one of the candidates does have their sanity while the other is a communist lunatic. N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas is a self-proclaimed DSA member and has proudly supported the following: Trans children operations/men in women’s sports, the downfall of capitalism, abolishing ICE, the impeachment and removal of Trump from office, and she wants to institute a “fair socialist economy.” These stances might play well in a state like Washington or Oregon, but these views are a non-starter for a GOP state like this. Bottom Line- There is no room for a DSA candidate in a state like Oklahoma. Pigs will fly when a candidate like N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas makes this a competitive race. She is simply too radical and her candidacy is dead on arrival. Race Projection: Safe R 🔴 – Kevin Hern by 20%+

**NC WEEKLY VOTER REG UPDATE** 10/3-10/10 Net🔵+3,823 Overall Lead🔵+490 Active Voter Lead 🔴+97,101 We have a flip in the Tar Heel State. Democrats had a surge in the final week of registration to allow them to take the registration lead back from the GOP. The deadline for registering for the midterm has now passed so we should see a massive slowdown over the next month until after midterms. Going forward, the GOP needs to figure out how to make inroads in urban areas if they are going to reverse this trend.

SOUTH CAROLINA 2026 SENATE PROJECTION Registration Data- Not Tracked by Party ID in South Carolina 2024 Election- 🔴 Trump +17.9 Key Race: Senate- Darline Graham (R) vs Annie Andrews (D) ***Long Post Warning/Analysis Inside*** Over the next month until the midterms, I will be projecting Governor/Senate Races based off of a combination of registration trends, historical data, mail/early voting trends, and candidate strengths. These predictions will be independent of polling. So we will see how this version of projecting races compares against the struggling polling industry. This race of particular interest to me because two Democrat polling firms have shown Andrews with a lead in the state. Those two firms are Impact Research and Abacus Data. Registration Trends- South Carolina does not track its registration by party ID. However we do get a breakdown of demographic information from the state. The latest published report that was published October 1st reveals that there are 3,434,868 registered voters in the state. The racial breakdown is as follows: White 71.19%, Black 23.63%, Hispanic 2.46%, and All Others 2.72%. The racial breakdown is significant because it shows that nearly 1 in 4 voters will be Black and Democrats routinely win massive margins with black voters. The caveat though is that Democrats need to turn them out as they tend to have less enthusiasm for midterm cycles. EV Trends- No mail data is currently available for South Carolina. In person early voting starts on October 19th, so there isn’t any data to report yet. However, to continue the above discussion, in order for Annie Andrews to have a real shot to pull the upset in South Carolina she will need to have near maximum Black turnout across the state. The question is, will she get that in a midterm when Blacks are typically less engaged and lower propensity? If the data we are seeing from Ohio and NC (low Black voter enthusiasm) are consistent with what will happen in South Carolina, she isn’t going to get the Black turnout that she needs to pull off the upset. Advantage Graham. Historical Data- No Democrat has won a statewide federal race since 1998, when a 6 time Democrat incumbent fended off a GOP challenge by 7%. At the presidential level, South Carolina has not gone Democrat since 1976 when the state voted for Jimmy Carter. This is a very strong state for the GOP for any statewide federal race and Trump recently carried the state in 2024 by 17.9%. In a pretty poor environment for the GOP in 2020 when the Generic Ballot was D+3.1% and black turnout was very high, Lyndsey Graham won his Senate race by 10.3%. Advantage Graham. Candidate Strengths- Annie Andrews has sold herself as a “moderate” to the people of South Carolina. However, as it is always the case with Democrats pretending to "moderate", she is anything but moderate. She is a strong proponent of trans surgeries for minors and for men in women’s sports. She also wants to ban semi-automatic rifles, which she refers to as “weapons of war.” Her political profile does not match someone who is aspiring to win political office in a deep red state like South Carolina. On the other hand, Darline has vowed to be a reliable vote for the Trump agenda in Congress and has espoused that she lacks the same enthusiasm that her brother had for foreign affairs, which may actually serve as a benefit for her. She also receives a pseudo-incumbency advantage due to the sympathy for the loss of her brother. Advantage Graham. Bottom Line- Due to the overwhelming GOP advantage in the state, there is no viable path forward for Andrews in a state that voted for Trump by almost 18%. She would need to maximize Black turnout and win a very large margin with independents just to make the race close. Combine that with pseudo-incumbency factor for Darline and the radical views of Andrews, and the math just isn’t there for an upset. Despite some surprisingly close polling from some Democrat and GOP pollsters (and proclamations from some X personalities that SC is a toss-up), I see this race as a comfortable win for Darline. Race Projection: 🔴 Safe R – Darline Graham by 7-12%

IDAHO 2026 SENATE PROJECTION Nov 2024 Registration- 🔴 +496,042 Registration Today- 🔴 +525,148 Net Change since 2024- 🔴 +29,106 2024 Election- 🔴 Trump +36.5 Key Race: Senate- Jim Risch (R) vs Todd Achilles (I) ***Long Post Warning/Analysis Inside*** Over the next month until the midterms, I will be projecting Governor/Senate Races based off of a combination of registration trends, historical data, mail/early voting trends, and candidate strengths. These predictions will be independent of polling. So we will see how this version of projecting races compares against the struggling polling industry. This race of particular interest to me because two Democrat polling firms have shown Achilles with a lead in the state. Those two firms are Advanced Targeting Research and Bullfinch Group (though they may want to rename to the Bulls*** group after this election finishes). Registration Trends- The GOP has added a net of over 29k registrations since the 2024 election. Interestingly enough, Dems have actually lost voters since the 2024 elections. The GOP has also outregistered the Dems in the most recent monthly update, meaning the Dems have not capitalized on the momentum that is present in many other states nationwide. Republicans outnumber both the Dems and Indies combined in this state and a hold a massive edge in any federal election because of that. Historical Data- No Democrat/Independent has won a statewide federal race since 1974. This is a strong state for the GOP for any statewide federal race and the last time a Democrat presidential candidate carried the state was back in 1964 when LBJ won the presidency. Trump recently carried the state in 2024 by 36.5%. Jim Risch is a 3 time incumbent, going for a fourth term. His closest race so far was a 23% win. EV Trends- Not much to note in Idaho. Mail voting has begun but there is no data available so far. Candidate Strengths- The Democrat candidate dropped out and endorsed Todd Achilles, who is running as independent and trying to appeal to Democrats and moderates in the state to build a winning coalition. He is an Army veteran a public policy professor at Boise State and running as a “moderate alternative.” Jim Risch is a very strong 3 time incumbent with a history of high approval with the people of Idaho. Advantage Risch here. Bottom Line- Due to the overwhelming GOP advantage in the state, not only would Achilles need to get every single independent, Democrat, and a large chunk of GOP crossover voters to have a chance. Combine that with the strong electoral track record and popularity of Jim Risch, and the math just isn’t there for an upset. This is going to be a blowout despite what some Democrat biased polls have put out there. Race Projection: Safe R 🔴 – Jim Risch by 20%+

MONTANA 2026 SENATE PROJECTION Registration Data- Not Tracked by Party ID in Montana 2024 Election- 🔴 Trump +20 Key Race: Senate- Kurt Alme (R) vs Alani Bankhead (D) vs Seth Bodnar (I) Over the next month until the midterms, I will be projecting Governor/Senate Races based off of a combination of registration trends, historical data, mail/early voting trends, and candidate strengths. These predictions will be independent of polling. So we will see how this version of projecting races compares against the struggling polling industry. Registration Trends- Not Tracked by Party ID in Montana so there is no way to know the registration statistics for either major party. Historical Data- No Democrat has won a statewide federal race since 2018 when Jon Tester won by 3.5%. This is a strong state for the GOP for any statewide federal race and the last time a Democrat presidential candidate carried the state was back in 1992 when Bill Clinton won. Given the fact that the last time a Democrat carried the state was the last time a midterm occurred under a Trump presidency, that should raise some warning signs for the GOP if another blue wave were to happen. EV Trends- Not much to note in Montana. Mail voting has begun but there is no data available so far. Candidate Strengths- There are three serious candidates in this election which really is going to be the story of the election. The Republican, Kurt Alme is a popular attorney who has received the endorsement of his predecessor Steve Daines and President Trump (which carries weight since Trump carried the state three times). Any chance for the Dems to make this seat competitive were ruined by the presence of a viable third party candidate (Seth Bodnar). Alani Bankhead, the Democrat candidate is to the left of Bodnar and will only capture the Democrat vote, while Bankhead will appeal to the moderate/independent voters of the state. Bottom Line- Due to the presence of an independent candidate on the ballot in a strong GOP state that Trump won by 20%, combined with the limited success of Democrat/Independent candidates at the federal level in the past, it is safe to say that Alme will run away this seat and there will be no serious threat posed to him. Race Projection: Safe R 🔴 Kurt Alme by 10%+

CALIFORNIA 2026 GUBERNATORIAL PROJECTION Nov 2024 Registration- 🔵+4,716.872 Registration Today- 🔵+4,658,425 Net Change since 2024- 🔴+58,447 2024 Election- 🔵 Harris +20.1% Key Race: Governor- Xavier Becerra (D) vs Steve Hilton (R) ***Long Post Warning/Analysis Inside*** Over the next month until the midterms, I will be projecting Governor/Senate Races based off of a combination of registration trends, historical data, mail/early voting trends, and candidate strengths. These predictions will be independent of polling. So we will see how this version of projecting races compares against the struggling polling industry. Registration Trends- The GOP has added a net of almost 58,447 registrations since the 2024 election. However, the Dems have outregistered the GOP in the most recent monthly update, meaning the Dems have some registration momentum behind them. The Dems outnumber the GOP by 4.65 million in a state that Harris won by 20%, a very steep hill to climb for Hilton. Historical Data- No GOP candidate has won a statewide gubernatorial race since 2006 when Arnold Schwarzenegger last pulled off the feat. The closest gubernatorial election since 2006 was D+13, so that does not bode well for Hilton and it would take a herculean effort for him to even lose by that margin. EV Trends- Not much to note in California. Mail votes have just been sent out and return data is not yet available. Candidate Strengths- Neither candidate has an incumbency advantage. Hilton is running a spirited campaign to “give him a chance” after years of failed Democrat governance. He wants to cut taxes and focus on decreasing the waste of government programs. Becerra is running as another big government Democrat like Gavin Newsom. He has a scandal from when he was the head of the Department of Health and Human Services when he placed migrant children with unsafe sponsors. In a state like California, this is unlikely to leave a big dent in his support since it is a “Vote Blue No Matter Who” type of state. Bottom Line- The Democrat advantage is just too big to overcome. Hilton would need to win indies by a large margin and would also need a decent percentage of Democrats to cross over in order to be competitive in a D+ 4.65 million state like California. Are Californians tired of Democrat governance of the state? My analysis points to a resounding no and a landslide victory for Becerra. However, as a silver lining, Hilton is running a spirited campaign that will help get the GOP base out and salvage some down ballot races that would’ve otherwise been lost. Race Projection: Safe D – Xavier Becerra by 10%+

**PA WEEKLY VOTER REG UPDATE** 9/28-10/5 Net🔵+4,940 Overall Lead🔵+53,189 Gains Since Dec 24🔴+77,730 Another bad week for the GOP. It is two weeks until the registration deadline, after which the bleeding will stop. The GOP is still in a better spot today than it was in 2024, so hopefully those new voters go out and vote in the midterms to salvage some of the downballot races in PA.

LOUISIANA 2026 SENATE PROJECTION Nov 2024 Registration- 🔵+86,738 Registration Today- 🔴+7,557 Net Change since 2024- 🔴+94,295 2024 Election- 🔴Trump +22 Key Race: Senate- Julia Letlow (R) vs Jamie Davis (D) ***Long Post Warning/Analysis Inside*** Over the next month until the midterms, I will be projecting Governor/Senate Races based off of a combination of registration trends, historical data, mail/early voting trends, and candidate strengths. These predictions will be independent of polling. So we will see how this version of projecting races compares against the struggling polling industry. Registration Trends- The GOP has added a net of almost 100k registrations since the 2024 election. The GOP has also outregistered the Dems in the most recent monthly update, meaning the Dems have not capitalized on the momentum that is present in many other states nationwide. While the GOP only outnumbers the Dems by 7,557 in this state, there is a very strong ancestral Dem effect and Trump won in 2024 by 22% despite a Democrat advantage of 86,738. Historical Data- No Democrat has won a statewide federal race since 2008. This is a strong state for the GOP for any statewide federal race despite the close registration margins. The closest federal election since 2008 was R+11, so that does not bode well for Davis. EV Trends- Not much to note in Louisiana. IPEV begins on Oct 20th. Mail voting has begun but there is no data available so far. Will Blacks come out in force for Davis? If Black turnout is down in the midterm cycle (as it often is), then the mission becomes impossible for Davis. Candidate Strengths- Neither candidate has an incumbency advantage. This race has not garnered much national attention and neither candidate is involved in any major scandals. Bottom Line- There is no reason to believe that Louisiana is in an environment that would put Letlow at any risk. The state is more red than it was in 2024, the history of the state favors the GOP, and there are no scandals plaguing Letlow that would bring her to a point of vulnerability. Race Projection: Safe R 🔴 – Julia Letlow by 10%+

**NC WEEKLY VOTER REG UPDATE** 9/26-10/3 Net🔵+1,851 Overall Lead🔴+3,333 Active Voter Lead 🔴+104,971 With the NC registration deadline fast approaching (Oct 9th), I expect that the GOP will hold the overall registration lead going into this midterm election. Dems add another chunk but only have one more week to try and get over the hump.

**PA WEEKLY VOTER REG UPDATE** 9/21-9/28 Net🔵+4,964 Overall Lead🔵+48,249 Gains Since Dec 24🔴+82,670 Dems with another big gain this week. Over half the gain came from Pitt and Philly. And there were over 1k reactivations as well. Expect this to continue until the midterm is over.

**NC WEEKLY VOTER REG UPDATE** 9/19-9/26 Net🔵+1,769 Overall Lead🔴+5,184 Active Voter Lead🔴+106,902 The Democrat gains are getting bigger each week in NC. It is clear that the Dems have the registration momentum in urban areas at the moment. If you are Whatley, I am sure you are thrilled with all the gains you made over the last 2 years, but you have to hate seeing the Democrat gains in the final weeks before the election. At this rate, North Carolina registration may flip before the midterm elections. Only time will tell. On to next week!

BREAKING: I have seen enough. I am updating the ME Senate Race from Lean R ➡️ Likely R 🔴 Collins with a lead now in her second consecutive poll. This is after the polls grossly underestimated her in 2020 and never showed her with a lead against Gideon. With Collins tack record of overperformance (listed below), this race is likely over barring a major change in the political environment of the race. Here is the list: Maine 2008 RCP Avg- Collins +14 (Actual: +23) Maine 2014 RCP Avg- Collins +29 (Actual: +37) Maine 2020 RCP Avg- Gideon +8 (Actual: +9 Collins) She has overperformed the polls by an avg of 13% This is a terrible place to be in the polling if you married to your cousin