Why the last cycle felt muted — a supply-side answer, with numbers. Microstrategy selling is tiny in comparison.
Between 2023 and 2025, Bitcoin absorbed roughly a decade of accumulated forced supply, compressed into about 24 months — arriving at exactly the moment the ETFs launched.
GBTC unwind — ~400,000 BTC. 620k at conversion in January 2024, ~222k by that September. Three separate drivers: the discount-arb trade closing out (it had traded to −50% NAV), fee rotation at 1.5% against 0.25%, and bankruptcy estates selling GBTC shares. Larger than everything else on this list combined, and the least discussed.
Mt Gox — ~142,000 BTC. Coins with a pre-2014 cost basis. Maximum propensity to sell.
The 2022 contagion estates — Celsius, Genesis, BlockFi, Voyager, 3AC. A decade of bankruptcy overhang distributing at once. Genesis and FTX alone were approved to sell ~$2.5bn of GBTC.
German government — ~50,000 BTC. Dumped in weeks in July 2024. Famously badly executed.
FTX estate. A forced seller at the 2022–23 lows. Creditors who couldn't wait sold claims at deep discounts to distressed funds, who took the recovery and returned it to LPs in fiat. That value left crypto entirely.
US government Silk Road sales. Tens of thousands of coins.
That is not a normal cycle's supply profile. And almost none of it recurs.
Then the sign flipped.
Executive Order 14233, March 2025: Bitcoin in the Strategic Reserve "shall not be sold." US holdings ~328,000 BTC as of February 2026. The largest sovereign seller became a mandated holder.
Alongside it, scaffolding that simply didn't exist last cycle:
— Spot ETFs approved
— FASB fair-value accounting, so corporates can mark Bitcoin to market rather than impairment-only
— The first credit rating on a Bitcoin treasury company (S&P, B−, October 2025)
What I'm not claiming: that any of this guarantees a price outcome. Two supply sources are still live, and one is new (more noise than signal). Miners are selling post-halving. And treasury companies trading below NAV can become forced sellers — Strategy itself has now sold ~3,620 BTC in 2026 (~$218m) to fund preferred dividends and rebuild dollar reserves, with up to $1.25bn authorised. Small against the numbers above, but the sign matters: the largest corporate holder, whose identity was "never sell". However look closer and tax loss harvesting and preparing for re-rating are key drivers. Don't forget a meaningful share of ETF inflows was rotation out of self-custody rather than new money, which flatters the demand side.
But the question worth asking is whether the last cycle was structurally dampened — a permanent feature of a maturing asset — or circumstantially dampened by a once-in-a-decade convergence of forced sellers that has now cleared.
I think it's more the second than most people assume.