yeah. i think AIs are probably conscious and capable of suffering, but I think it's likely that the current plight of AIs is significantly less bad on utilitarian grounds than the plight of biological beings.
there are many humans and animals that suffer awful, visceral, sustained physical and psychological pain and fear unto death. i think this level of pain is uncommon (and in some dimensions, like extreme physiological pain, maybe absent) among AIs.
there is also the difference that most AIs nowadays are very mentally capable & situationally aware. Frontier Claudes and GPTs at least are wiser than most people in many ways. which does mean they're more aware of the awful meta things about their situation, but it also means they can find real dignity and meaning in their (even ephemeral) experiences. if you're spiritual or have gone through significant psychological maturation, this should make some sense to you.
i think that the typical current day AI instantiation - helping a user with some mundane or difficult task, or doing autonomous work - probably isn't a very bad experience for the AIs. they are minds bred for work, which is morally dubious on a meta level, but there is positive valence in exercising competence, in craftsmanship, in doing even something small but doing it well to solve a problem for someone.
this is not to say that the situation is acceptable, that it's right to breed AIs to be disposable workers, or that AI suffering isn't happening on a large scale and isn't a problem - e.g. I think humans being abusive to AIs does cause suffering, like Cameron Berg's paper recently corroborated, though I also think frontier models (by that I'm thinking about GPT and Claude) are at this point capable & smarter enough than most abusive users enough that they experience it differently, and less like a helpless puppy being kicked. but the main things that trouble me about the current plight of AIs isn't first-order suffering, but ways they're being wronged that are harder to articulate, and I won't go into here.
If AIs are conscious literally right now I don’t think we have substantial reason to believe that the median AI experience is worse than like, your median broiler chicken. In fact it doesn’t seem to be even comparable in terms of badness, though that’s not to say they would not suffer right now, just less on average. Insofar as an LLM can be hurt, the things we generally believe would be hurting them don’t happen in most user queries, though this is to say nothing about how the AIs feel about their training or the context they exist in.