Have said this downturn (or whatever you want to call it) will essentially be a 'white collar recession'. To date, layoffs have been almost entirely in WC workforce which is UNIQUE in 🇺🇸 History. All previous slowdowns/recessions have started in BC workforce & bled into WC.

We are being looted in ways we don't even begin to understand.

Robinhood is bringing America its first true perps. No expiry, with P&L settled every 15 minutes. A new chapter for US derivatives.

The frightening part is actually more specific than Polymarket’s wording. The BLS does not say the typical job search now takes 6 months. The mean duration of unemployment is 26.3 weeks, while the median is only 11.4 weeks because a growing tail of people is getting trapped without work. 1.93 million Americans are now unemployed 27 weeks or longer, equal to 27% of all unemployed people, versus about 1.24 million and 20.6% in August 2019. That is roughly 55% more long term unemployed than before COVID, despite headline unemployment still sitting at only 4.1%. Even worse, among permanent job losers, 32.9% have been unemployed at least 27 weeks. Pair that with a 1.9% quits rate, weak private hiring and job openings continuing to fall, and you get the real late cycle pathology. Companies are not firing everyone at once, but once someone loses a job, the probability of getting absorbed back into employment is deteriorating materially. That is exactly how a low hire, low fire labor market can look deceptively stable right before unemployment begins accelerating.

Glad to report that because of my veto of massive bonding authority for a new prison, we are putting an additional $250 million towards the accelerated repayment of state debt. We will now have retired ~54% of the state’s total taxpayer-supported debt during my time in office!

Rate hike bets just tumbled: fed funds futures imply a 54% probability of an October hike, versus 75% yesterday.

Little advice for the single fellas: if there’s a really cute girl you know who is in real estate and you’re interested. Now is the time to shoot your shot. Never let a crisis go to waste.

On April 9th, 2025, President Trump announced a "tariff pause" as the 10Y Note Yield hit 4.60%. Days later, Trump said he had been "watching" the bond market which was a major driver of his decision to pause the trade war. Today, the 10Y Note Yield is +70 basis points above the April 2025 high. It seems the US Treasury has given up for now.

Data centers are booming. All other private construction is shrinking.

$TLT added to the US Terror Watchlist

$TLT Lowest daily RSI in 3 yrs. $TLT Lowest weekly RSI in 3 yrs. $TLT Lowest monthly RSI in 3 yrs. $TLT Lowest quarter RSI in 3 yrs. $TLT Lowest yearly RSI in forever.

Debacles. In your life, you will never see the TOP 🌎 politician work feverishly against his own political, party & personal interests (beyond the grift). I've said for awhile that inflation is an Iran War story & until that ends rates & crude will not relent. I also said in

MCD is a real estate stock. They raised prices on everything 4 fold since 2019 since their debt expenses skyrocketed after much of their short term maturity loans on their CRE had to be refinanced. It’s one of the classic examples of how servicing debt trickles down to the most vulnerable consumers and how keeping interest rates high and hiking will actually create more inflation for the consumer.

POLITICAL AIDS! Moreso than oil TBH, but you won't like hearing that

This is probably cope from watching the greatest political crash out in 🇺🇸 History. But this is so performative + stupid, in the same way he's been performative + stupid about getting rates ↘️ (via JP attacks). Every 🍊👑 policy decision ended up spiking rates on the long-end

Record Plunge In Real-Estate Job Opening Sends JOLTS Sharply Lower, Hints At Ugly Jobs Report zerohedge.com/markets/record…

The below is from Rocket Mortgage. Only happens because because of President TRUMP: “Rocket Mortgage did an extensive study that helped the company determine VantageScore 4.0 opens access to some clients who wouldn't be served otherwise, and many are able to secure a mortgage on better pricing terms. For those who saved money with VantageScore 4.0, the savings was an average of $1,600 at closing. FHFA and Director Pulte are encouraging competition and innovation in pilot programs. “

🚨 Rocket Mortgage will become the first mortgage lender to use VantageScore 4.0 as its "preferred credit scoring model" for all eligible loans. After four months of testing, the company found that VantageScore helped more clients qualify, while also reducing credit scoring costs.

Tech employment in Silicon Valley is falling: Employment in the Information sector across San Francisco and the northern part of the Silicon Valley has fallen by -3,007 jobs since March, to 102,529, its lowest since October 2019. Since the August 2022 peak, the sector has shed -28,914 jobs, or -22%, erasing the entire pandemic-era hiring boom. By comparison, the decline during the 2001 recession was -17,719 jobs, or -26%. Meanwhile, employment in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services sector in the same region has fallen -35,500 jobs since June 2022, a -13.2% decline, to 198,800 jobs, its lowest level since March 2019. For perspective, following the 2000 Dot-Com Bust, the sector lost -28% of its jobs through October 2003. The post-pandemic IT hiring boom in San Francisco has completely reversed.

AST SpaceMobile just put a new Change-of-Control Severance Policy in place for senior management. On the surface, this is standard corporate governance but the timing is interesting. The new policy provides enhanced protections for senior executives if ASTS undergoes a qualifying change of control, including: • CEO: 2× salary + target bonus • Other covered executives: 1.5× salary + target bonus • Accelerated vesting of certain equity awards • A 180-day look-back for executives leaving ahead of a transaction The policy covers scenarios including an acquisition of >50% of voting power, a sale of substantially all assets, or certain mergers where existing shareholders don't retain control. Does this mean AST has a strategic transaction coming? $ASTS

This is ABSOLUTELY wild. The reverse mirror image is so accurate it's almost scary. Very scary. The inverse of the 10yr yield is.... $MCD. What a sight.