Developer. Investor. Bitcoin.

It’s easier to understand when you realize there is no such thing as Republicans and Democrats. They are all one big group and put out different messaging in public to keep people fighting amongst themselves
Crazy to think about how Trump could’ve had one of the most successful and popular presidential terms in modern American history… and they completely punted it. He was elected by a historic coalition and was the first Republican to win the popular vote in decades because of two issues: inflation and illegal immigration. Inflation was already falling after the Covid and Biden era spending. All he had to do was close the border, conduct mass deportations, and let the economy/AI cook while pushing through deregulation. Instead, after explicitly running on ending foreign wars, he immediately started a war with Iran which has taken over the entire term. Inflation, energy prices and mortgage rates have all climbed and are heading in the wrong direction. His approval is at an all-time low. He sacrificed his own domestic agenda for a war in the Middle East alongside Israel. Republicans are now going to lose the House, possibly the Senate, and the next 2 years will be nothing but DC gridlock and investigations. The odds of handing America to the far-left in 2028 have also dramatically increased.
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Replying to @ThierryBorgeat
where it gets really weird is that US equities now back the UST market not enough people appreciate that reflexivity yet, nor what it implies
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Hiking rates to contain 10y yields didn't work...AGAIN. Fiscal dominance = Fed's only choice remains HOW they want to lose the long end: Via cutting rates (near-term inflation, medium-term good outcome) or hiking rates (near-term pain, medium-term Argentine inflation outcome.)
Fed hike = the Fed is trying to tighten financial conditions by giving more interest income to the upper leg of the "K" (Boomers) while simultaneously increasing US govt deficits (via higher interest expense). That's like screwing to try to get your virginity back.

ALT Jason Bateman Cotton GIF

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You will own nothing and be happy, unless you own Bitcoin keys over CBDC’s.
🇪🇺BREAKING: ECB launches “Digital Euro” for banks as Pontes begins tokenized finance pilot. President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde announces The ECB is launching Pontes today, a platform that will connect private blockchain networks with the TARGET system, allowing banks to settle tokenized assets directly in central bank money. “It's digital euro made available for banks,” the ECB says, allowing institutions to transact using tokenized assets and DLT “faster, without friction," she  adds. Pontes is the first step toward the ECB’s broader Appia ecosystem for tokenized financial markets, while consumer-facing digital euro testing is planned for mid-2027.
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How it started (left): "The Debasement Trade is Unraveling and Kevin Warsh is One Big Reason" - Bloomberg, 6/24/26 How it's going (right): BTC up 41% since, gold up 9% since.
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Think about this, the next time you consider purchasing TIPS. What are the incentives?
“Real inflation is much higher than what they say it is. Just look at the CPI calculations. I think there’s there’s something like 100,000 adjustments in every CPI print. 100,000. So they seasonally adjust it, they hedonically adjust it, they adjust everything, right? And that’s done on purpose, because the government’s cost of social security is CPI linked, so they don’t want it high, right? And so they fake us out.” Porter Collins
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Great to welcome @jakepaul to the Treasury Department today. Jake’s path from content creator to entrepreneur and professional boxer is a distinctly American story. Thank you for stopping by.
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Meaningfully increasing prospective Federal deficits is a reason to sell bonds, not buy them. This is true whether you increase deficits by going to war or by the Fed raising rates instead of cutting rates. Check to you Warsh and Bessent.
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This feels very vibecoded
Here’s a look at the new Health app in iOS 27.2 Beta
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JUST IN: Anthropic says they’re highly profitable if you take out some of their biggest expenses.
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Female juror in the Lindsay Clancy trial on the lone male holdout: “He had the hardest time getting over the fact that Lindsay viciously killed her children.”
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“Why is Nike collapsing?”
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Literally cheering a murderer of three little children. And these people vote.
Luka
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Many say "We just need to move to a wartime footing like we did in 1940 to reshore & compete with China." Few are aware in next 4 years, the US did YCC, Fed's balance sheet rose 10x, US real rates bottomed at -13% in the next 10 years, & US allies' real rates bottomed at -30%.
JUST IN: JIM CRAMER SAYS HE DOES NOT SEE HOW INTEREST RATES CAN GO DOWN NOW THAT KEVIN WARSH IS FED CHAIR
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Read like a bitcoin advertisement!! Scary stuff for Europeans
JUST IN - EU President Ursula von der Leyen says that people's savings accounts are a problem and that she must put this money "to the service of European companies" says her plan to "securitize them" and "supervise them" They're coming for your savings, Europe.
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Hey Europe, might want to switch that savings account into a Bitcoin wallet
JUST IN - EU President Ursula von der Leyen says that people's savings accounts are a problem and that she must put this money "to the service of European companies" says her plan to "securitize them" and "supervise them" They're coming for your savings, Europe.
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Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs, charged with domestic violence, is allegedly on video throwing his girlfriend to the ground. Which sounds bad. But it could be way worse, he could have introduced the president at a public event.
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It remains a variant perception that both Fed hikes or cuts will cause the long end to rise...even as long bond yields are now up on Warsh's "hawkish" speech today. The rules are different in fiscal dominance, but most market participants are still playing by the old rules.
"If the Fed hikes, they're going to lose the long end. If the Fed cuts, they're going to lose the long end." Here's what @LukeGromen thinks they should do 👇
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Cem was spot on with this preview. Nobody’s buying what Warsh is selling
Everybody is about to find out why Bessent & team fed Druck that AI slop & put him up to the WSJ 🗞️ OpEd…. Warsh will now inevitably get asked about the OpEd @ Jackson Hole 🕳️… & to everyone’s surprise 😮, he will answer along the lines of… “I think Druck has a point, we should let the market set rates, & if they are going to move higher 📈, Congress needs to begin to listen to what’s the market is saying & enforce more fiscal discipline!” After an initial hawkish move, w/ the 30-year yields jumping, bonds will stabilize & the WSJ will begin to discuss how Warsh Is restoring credibility to the Fed & the dollar 💵 & actually forcing discipline to control long-run inflation risk. But, as I have said before, this is all just an elaborate GOOD COP👮/BAD COP👮‍♂️routine. (I ask you, do you really think Druckenmiller & Warsh think austerity is the answer?? Do you really think Trump & Bessent brought in Warsh to actually enforce monetary discipline??)
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Leveraged on the way down, unlevered on the way up. Well done 🤡
Our USD Assets now almost entirely offset our debt, reducing net leverage to 0.1%. $MSTR
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