Snapshot from our note in June 2025 laying out the bear case for
$CRM and application software….
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AI/Agent Technology & Interoperability Threatening System of Record Value:
The rapid advancements in AI, particularly the rise of sophisticated AI agents and initiatives like the Model Context Protocol (MCP), pose a potential existential threat to Salesforce's traditional "system of record" moat. MCP and new interoperability standards (from Google) aim to allow AI agents to seamlessly access and interact with data across various enterprise systems, regardless of where the data resides. If successful, this could mean that the primary interface for users and the "intelligence layer" shifts from the CRM system itself to these AI agents.
Salesforce could be relegated to one of many backend data sources, diminishing its strategic importance and the stickiness of its platform. The value could accrue to the AI model providers and agent orchestration platforms rather than the underlying record systems if they don't adapt quickly to become truly open and composable. While Salesforce is heavily investing in its own AI (Einstein, Agentforce), a future where open, interoperable AI agents become dominant could commoditize the underlying data storage and CRM functionalities.
Structurally Lower Software Development Costs Reducing Barriers to Entry:
Compounding the AI threat, the long-term trend of structurally lower software development costs - driven by advances in low-code/no-code platforms, open-source components, and AI-assisted development - reduces the barriers to entry for competing CRM systems. Niche players or even new entrants can potentially develop compelling CRM functionalities or equivalent business logic embedded within other platforms at a faster pace and lower cost than was previously possible. This could lead to a proliferation of more specialized, agile, and cost-effective solutions that chip away at Salesforce's broader market, especially if combined with interoperable AI agents that can orchestrate across these varied tools. It will also limit their ability to charge for additional modules and features.
While Salesforce benefits from a massive ecosystem and installed base, the ease of developing sophisticated software could empower a new wave of competition over the very long term. New entrants, leveraging reduced development expenses, are positioned to undercut incumbents on price. As a result, established players (like Salesforce) will likely face increasing pricing pressure, especially as the inherent value of their system-of-record status diminishes over time.