I've said this a million times.
Luck is an underrated factor when it comes to trading memes. Beyond skill and liquidity, you need luck.
This luck is not the absence of hardwork, no. It's the fact that you need multiple factors to ALIGN before you can win.
Let me explain:
1. You can be early to a narrative. Buy token and wait for it to play out only for that token to get pvped.
E.g
$ASTEROID on Ethereum went from 20k mcap to 120m mcap in two weeks. But do you know there was an older Asteroid?
You could have been early and right but still missed out simply because the cabal didn't pick the particular Asteroid you hold.
Same with
$Ansem.
There were at least 3 other Ansem/BlackBull tokens. But what were the odds that the one you're holding is the one Ansem will choose to CTO?
2. You can be early and right and dev can decide to abandon the project. What do you do then?
Casestudy:
Noxa was the first launchpad on Robinhood and was successful way before Pons.
You could have bought
$Noxa and held because it was an obvious 'first launchpad token alpha' only for the dev to abandon the project and Pons to take over, reaching unprecedented heights.
3. You can sell a token at a loss only for it to hit 10,0000% the next day.
4. You can frontrun a narrative only for it to die as quickly as it gained traction.
5. You can diamond hand a 10/10 token only to roundtrip the gains and sell at a loss because there was FUD being spread about the dev.
Casestudy:
$Wire
$Ponsion
Point is, even with great skill, except you're the dev, anything can happen and it is not your fault.
Heck, I've seen cases where a dev seriously pushing his token and bagworking gets rugged by his own community.
But in all of this debate, liquidity remains king. A person with 200 nets in the River will evidently catch more fishes than the person with only one net.
Having liquidity increases your luck surface area. You buy more. Hold more. And therefore, win more.
Bottomline:
▪︎ Skill + Low liquidity = Trading from a place of lack, fear and desperation. Decreased luck surface area.
▪︎ Skill + Liquidity = Trading from a place of abundance with confidence. Increased luck surface area
▪︎ Skill + Liquidity + Luck = The golden trifecta