IMO / My Read - Educational Only. Not Financial Advice. Please do your own DD. Why I think $FNMA $FMCC weakness to $4.85 is interesting before any potential recap news. This is my opinion on how large deals often work: 1. Banks lined up for a potential IPO/secondary typically prefer low volatility / quiet tape pre-deal. FNMA is OTC, wholesale flow dominated. IMO this can lead to price being walked down. 2. Treasury optics: My read is selling 5% and marking 95% to market could look better if baseline is low BEFORE and higher AFTER - textbook taxpayer win headline. IMO low now could help optics later. 3. SPS overhang: In my opinion, any potential Senior Preferred resolution might be easier to explain at lower levels vs higher. AIG, Citi, GM, BAC all traded like distressed during TARP exit until structure was revealed - then repriced. That is historical pattern, not a guarantee this does same. I see $195B+ retained, $30B+ annual, $0 draws in ~10 yrs, backing $10T+ housing. 18 yrs conservatorship is long - in my opinion. If/when structure drops (SPS, PSPA, IPO path) - IMO commons could rerate, but could also go lower. Risk is real. We hold. Long $FNMA $FMCC since 2013. NFA. $FMCC $FNMA - IMO, My Read, Educational, Not Financial Advice.