Edu only • Not advice • Not RIA Housing/Mortgage Intel → Data, not headlines May hold $BTC $ADA $ONDO $FMCC $FNMA $OPEN $ONDS $SOFI long

California, USA
How FHFA & Treasury Can Lower 30-Year Mortgage Rates By 0.75% - 1.25% TODAY Without The Fed Make Home Buying Affordable Again - 6 Step Counter-Cyclical Plan (For BOTH Fannie & Freddie) [Details in comment below] @Pulte @SecScottBessent @WhiteHouse $FNMA $FMCC Policy proposal for discussion only. Not financial advice, IMO.
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Director Pulte + Secretary Bessent: You can cut 30-year mortgage rates 0.75-1.25% TOMORROW — no taxpayer cost, no Act of Congress. Cut G-fees 50bps, raise retained portfolio $225B → $500B each to absorb QT, deem Senior Preferred PAID ($193B drew, $300B+ returned), make retained earnings permanent ($176B), uplist FNMA/FMCC to NYSE, expand CRT for $150B private equity. Full 6-step plan in original below 👇 @pulte @SecScottBessent — Please review. Housing moves America again.
How FHFA & Treasury Can Lower 30-Year Mortgage Rates By 0.75% - 1.25% TODAY Without The Fed Make Home Buying Affordable Again - 6 Step Counter-Cyclical Plan (For BOTH Fannie & Freddie) [Details in comment below] @Pulte @SecScottBessent @WhiteHouse $FNMA $FMCC Policy proposal for discussion only. Not financial advice, IMO.
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30-year mortgage rates can drop 0.75-1.25% TOMORROW — no taxpayer cost, no Fed needed. My 6-step plan: Cut G-fees 50bps = save $5K/yr, raise portfolio $225B → $500B to absorb QT, deem $193B preferred paid (got $300B+ back), uplist FNMA/FMCC to NYSE, expand CRT for $150B private equity. Full plan in original below 👇 @JoeSquawk @jimcramer @KellyCNBC — Housing = 70% of GDP. Would love your take.
How FHFA & Treasury Can Lower 30-Year Mortgage Rates By 0.75% - 1.25% TODAY Without The Fed Make Home Buying Affordable Again - 6 Step Counter-Cyclical Plan (For BOTH Fannie & Freddie) [Details in comment below] @Pulte @SecScottBessent @WhiteHouse $FNMA $FMCC Policy proposal for discussion only. Not financial advice, IMO.
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Housing = 70% of GDP. We can cut 30-year rates 0.75-1.25% TOMORROW - no taxpayer cost, no Fed needed. My 6-step FNMA/FMCC plan — original below 👇 @LizClaman @larry_kudlow @CherylCasone — would love your take on Fox Business. This gets housing moving again.
How FHFA & Treasury Can Lower 30-Year Mortgage Rates By 0.75% - 1.25% TODAY Without The Fed Make Home Buying Affordable Again - 6 Step Counter-Cyclical Plan (For BOTH Fannie & Freddie) [Details in comment below] @Pulte @SecScottBessent @WhiteHouse $FNMA $FMCC Policy proposal for discussion only. Not financial advice, IMO.
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HOUSING = 70% OF GDP. We can cut rates 0.75-1.25% tomorrow with no taxpayer cost. 6-step FNMA/FMCC plan below 👇 @cvpayne @LizClaman @Varneyco - would love your take on Fox Business. This moves housing.
How FHFA & Treasury Can Lower 30-Year Mortgage Rates By 0.75% - 1.25% TODAY Without The Fed Make Home Buying Affordable Again - 6 Step Counter-Cyclical Plan (For BOTH Fannie & Freddie) [Details in comment below] @Pulte @SecScottBessent @WhiteHouse $FNMA $FMCC Policy proposal for discussion only. Not financial advice, IMO.
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How FHFA & Treasury Can Lower 30-Year Mortgage Rates By 0.75% - 1.25% TODAY Without The Fed Make Home Buying Affordable Again - 6 Step Counter-Cyclical Plan (For BOTH Fannie & Freddie) [Details in comment below] @Pulte @SecScottBessent @WhiteHouse $FNMA $FMCC Policy proposal for discussion only. Not financial advice, IMO.
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FULL BREAKDOWN - How Each Step Lowers Rates & Why Investors/Taxpayers Still Win (For BOTH Fannie & Freddie): 1. CUT G-FEES & LLPAs TEMPORARILY - BOTH (Instant 0.30-0.50% off borrower rate) G-fee = annual insurance (~50-65bps) both charge lenders, passed to borrower. LLPA = upfront fee by FICO/LTV. 2022 FHFA added ~50bps extra on BOTH. Cutting = instant payment relief for homebuyers. How they still profit: VOLUME > MARGIN. Lower fee on $2T volume > higher fee on $1T frozen market. 2. CUT CAPITAL RULE 4% → 2% - BOTH (Free ~$150B+ combined to buy MBS) ERCF 4% is worst-case buffer. Banks hold 4-5% on riskier assets. 2% is safe for agency MBS. Frees capital for BOTH to support market and buy MBS. Reversible to 2.25-2.5% when rates fall. 3. RAISE RETAINED PORTFOLIO $225B → $500B EACH - BOTH (Tighten spreads 25-40bps) Current $225B cap is per company. Fed QT selling $35B MBS/month keeps spreads wide = high rates. Let BOTH absorb supply (up to $1T combined), spreads tighten = lower 30yr directly for homebuyers. 4. MAKE RETAINED EARNINGS PERMANENT - BOTH (Fannie $116.5B + Freddie ~$60B = ~$176B Combined = Core Capital) Right now if EITHER retains earnings, liquidation grows $1 for $1 per Letter Agreement. Should count as core capital for BOTH, not grow Treasury claim. Instant recap for BOTH, no taxpayer cost. This capital is what lets them cut fees for homebuyers. 5. DEEM SENIOR PREFERRED PAID - BOTH (Drew ~$193B Combined, Paid $300B+ Combined, Liquidation ~$385B Combined) Technical fix for BOTH. Drew ~$191B total, Paid $300B+ dividends, Liquidation now ~$385B combined with add-ons. Treasury already made ~$100B profit. Deem face paid for BOTH, credit overage to capital. Ends overhang. Taxpayer still holds 79.9% warrants in BOTH = upside. 6. UPLIST BOTH TO NYSE + EXPAND CRT - BOTH (Raise $75B+ each, $150B+ combined) OTC can't raise efficiently. NYSE lets BOTH raise equity/preferred at 5% not 8%. CRT sells credit risk to private (Blackstone/PIMCO) lowering capital need for BOTH. RESULT - MAIN STREET & HOMEBUYERS: This is about homebuyers first. Lower 30yr 0.75%-1.25% = ~$300-$600/month lower payment on a $400k-$500k loan. That's the difference between renting forever and owning. For first-time buyers, move-up buyers, and families stuck on sidelines - this brings them back. Housing moves again = builders $DHI $LEN $PHM build, construction jobs back, $HD $LOW furniture movers title companies busy. Counter-cyclical & reversible: Trade margin for volume while rates high. When rates fall, FHFA can raise fees/capital 10-20bps on 2x volume. Homebuyers win NOW, workers win NOW, $FNMA $FMCC investors & taxpayers win bigger LATER via volume + warrant value. --- Illustrative estimates only, based on my own calc from 10-Qs, FHFA ERCF, Fed H.4.1. Actuals may vary. Policy proposal for discussion only. Not financial advice, IMO. Not affiliated with FHFA, Treasury, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
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Adding context - why mortgage rates stay high: The Fed stopped buying mortgages. Every month billions get paid off and they don't replace them, so there's no big buyer left. Private market isn't filling the gap, banks are constrained, so spreads stay wide and rates stay high. $FNMA & $FMCC were built for this: providing liquidity when the market won't. If FHFA lets the GSEs step in to buy MORE supply during QT, mortgage spreads compress and buyer rates drop, without changing Fed policy. @pulte already announced they're ramping large MBS buying again - our proposal just gives them more liquidity to buy more and sustain it through QT. IMO, Edu purposes only. Not financial advice.
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If you agree homebuyers need relief NOW - $300-$600/month lower - please help get eyes on this: Repost + tag @pulte @SecScottBessent @WhiteHouse @FHFA This is a Main Street solution: 0.75%-1.25% off 30yr, reversible, no taxpayer cost, volume > margin for BOTH $FNMA $FMCC. Homebuyers win NOW, taxpayers win LATER via warrants. Let’s get housing moving again. 🏠🇺🇸
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Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS retweeted
$FNMA $FMCC @Wize_Markets is well worth a follow if you're engaged in the Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac saga.
IMO / My Read - Educational Only. Not Financial Advice. Please do your own DD. Why I think $FNMA $FMCC weakness to $4.85 is interesting before any potential recap news. This is my opinion on how large deals often work: 1. Banks lined up for a potential IPO/secondary typically prefer low volatility / quiet tape pre-deal. FNMA is OTC, wholesale flow dominated. IMO this can lead to price being walked down. 2. Treasury optics: My read is selling 5% and marking 95% to market could look better if baseline is low BEFORE and higher AFTER - textbook taxpayer win headline. IMO low now could help optics later. 3. SPS overhang: In my opinion, any potential Senior Preferred resolution might be easier to explain at lower levels vs higher. AIG, Citi, GM, BAC all traded like distressed during TARP exit until structure was revealed - then repriced. That is historical pattern, not a guarantee this does same. I see $195B+ retained, $30B+ annual, $0 draws in ~10 yrs, backing $10T+ housing. 18 yrs conservatorship is long - in my opinion. If/when structure drops (SPS, PSPA, IPO path) - IMO commons could rerate, but could also go lower. Risk is real. We hold. Long $FNMA $FMCC since 2013. NFA. $FMCC $FNMA - IMO, My Read, Educational, Not Financial Advice.
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989 followers. 11 from 1K. Pulte's tenure at DNI is done since early August. He's 100% back at FHFA now. No more distractions. He should be 100% focused on what shareholders want: UPLIST + RELEASE for $FNMA $FMCC Follow along - we've held since 2013.
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Eddy makes a fair point. Shareholders have won unanimously - 3-0, 8-0. At some point DOJ continuing to defend the old conservatorship structure works against the admin's own goal to release and rebuild. Time to align policy with court wins. $FNMA $FMCC
Replying to @IMFpubs
@realDonaldTrump @pulte Why r u DEFENDING prev admin who FRAUDED American shareholders? Why keep fighting after 3-0, 8-0 UNANIMOUS WON at Shrholders ! Y'all just talk No Commie while being HYPOCRITE TO THE MAX ! So many of us so upset, we will be NO RUSH TO THE POLL. NOT #MAGA
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Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS retweeted
$FNMA $FMCC Under HERA (2008), the FHFA holds conservatorship over the GSEs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and FHFA Director Bill Pulte can amend the Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (PSPAs) bilaterally—restructuring debt and warrants without a vote in Congress.
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Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS retweeted
It's been a historically bad month and bad week for mortgage rates. Today's movement is in the top 5 one-day deteriorations since 2011. A mortgage rate with zero points yesterday now requires approximately 1.2 discount points to lock. This is why we are building Opendoor Home Loans - to help Americans buy homes.
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Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS retweeted
Replying to @Rep_Clyde
How about Americans' right to own private property? Why are Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac still in a TEMPORARY conservatorship after our government has already looted $301 billion of their equity? Why does COMRADE @DirectorPulte fight the unanimous Jury & Appeals Court verdicts?
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IMO / My Read - Educational Only. Not Financial Advice. Please do your own DD. Why I think $FNMA $FMCC weakness to $4.85 is interesting before any potential recap news. This is my opinion on how large deals often work: 1. Banks lined up for a potential IPO/secondary typically prefer low volatility / quiet tape pre-deal. FNMA is OTC, wholesale flow dominated. IMO this can lead to price being walked down. 2. Treasury optics: My read is selling 5% and marking 95% to market could look better if baseline is low BEFORE and higher AFTER - textbook taxpayer win headline. IMO low now could help optics later. 3. SPS overhang: In my opinion, any potential Senior Preferred resolution might be easier to explain at lower levels vs higher. AIG, Citi, GM, BAC all traded like distressed during TARP exit until structure was revealed - then repriced. That is historical pattern, not a guarantee this does same. I see $195B+ retained, $30B+ annual, $0 draws in ~10 yrs, backing $10T+ housing. 18 yrs conservatorship is long - in my opinion. If/when structure drops (SPS, PSPA, IPO path) - IMO commons could rerate, but could also go lower. Risk is real. We hold. Long $FNMA $FMCC since 2013. NFA. $FMCC $FNMA - IMO, My Read, Educational, Not Financial Advice.
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Update 9/23: Still holding same thesis as of today. Long $FNMA $FMCC since 2013. Nothing changed for me. For more context on my SPS view, see my recent replies. IMO - Educational Only - NFA - Do your own DD.
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Resolving the Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac ($FNMA / $FMCC) conservatorship isn't just about housing finance - it's a test of contract integrity and government credibility in U.S. capital markets. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and FHFA Director Bill Pulte focus on housing market stability, the roadmap to exit conservatorship must avoid destructive, unnecessary shareholder dilution. 1. The Accounting Reality: The Principal is Paid Taxpayers were made whole long ago. Fannie and Freddie drew ~$191B in crisis funding but have paid back over $300B in cash dividends - the original principal plus $100B+ extra. The current ~$300B+ Senior Preferred liquidation preference largely reflects unpaid dividends added to the balance and the Net Worth Sweep preventing paydown, not additional new taxpayer cash since 2012. 2. Why "Converting the Senior Preferred" is a Mistake Converting hundreds of billions in paper liquidation preferences into common stock would severely punish existing shareholders who stayed invested through 18 years of conservatorship. A healthy U.S. market relies on property rights and contract law, not punitive dilution. 3. The Rational, Fair-Market Solution - Deem/Cancel Senior Preferred: Recognize that the government's initial principal has been fully satisfied by past dividend sweeps. - Address Warrants Cleanly: Settle or exercise the 79.9% Treasury warrants in a controlled, non-disruptive way. - Adjust ERCF Capital Rules: Modernize the FHFA Enterprise Regulatory Capital Framework so the GSEs can safely exit without needing unrealistic amounts of new cash. - Uplisting: Relist $FNMA and $FMCC on NYSE, unlocking true market valuation. If the U.S. wants to invite private capital back into government-adjacent enterprises, it must show that contracts are honored and that success is rewarded - not penalized. 🇺🇸📈 Disclosure: Long $FNMA $FMCC since 2013. Not financial advice. Opinions are my own. Do your own due diligence. @Pulte $FNMA $FMCC
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Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS retweeted
$FNMA $FMCC Great to see @pulte referencing U.S. Fintech. For those that don't know, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac had a baby...it's gonna be a big deal.
U.S. FinTech is taking the lead on technology for Fannie Score and Freddie Score. Their technology and technology team is second to none. Great work, guys!
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Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS retweeted
Pershing SQ has 90 Mil Freddie common - impressive !
I was not aware Pershing Square $PS owns 90 million common shares of Freddie Mac almost 15% of the company $FMCC $FNMA
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Elie Najm | WIZE MARKETS retweeted
$FNMA $FMCC Director @pulte, that's commendable, Sir. Do you have any idea of the tremendous capacity Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac shareholders would collectively have to donate if you simply uplisted us?
As promised, during my time as Director of National Intelligence of the United States and Director of Federal Housing, I have donated my Government Salary to Wounded Veterans, and the total is now $130,598.86 which has been donated. ✅
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