The world order you grew up with is dying. Not in a think tank paper. On the battlefield.
Almost every major war of the last decade comes down to one question: who writes the rules after America?
On one side, the US-led order that has held since 1945. On the other, an axis of Moscow, Beijing and Tehran that wants it gone. Simplified? Yes. Wrong? No.
Look at the map.
Russia launched the biggest war in Europe since 1945. Ukraine is still standing, at a cost of hundreds of thousands of lives. Iranian drones hit Ukrainian cities. North Korean soldiers fought in Kursk. This was never a "regional conflict". It was a test of whether borders can be redrawn by force.
Russia also tried to make the Levant its own. From 2015 it bombed Syria to save Assad. In December 2024 Assad fell and fled to Moscow. Ten years of Russian investment, gone in eleven days!
China played it quieter. Ports, loans, infrastructure, dependence. Soft power across Asia and beyond. No tanks needed.
And Iran? Weaker than at any point since 1979. Defeated in Syria. Hezbollah gutted in Lebanon. Hit hard at home since the war began in February. But still entrenched in Iraq, and through the Houthis now fighting for control of the Red Sea.
A wounded regime is not a harmless one. Ask anyone shipping oil through Hormuz this year.
Of course it is more complicated. India, Türkiye, Brazil and the Gulf all play their own game. Not every American setback is a Russian victory.
But here is what changed: Trump has sped everything up.
Love him or hate him, he made one thing crystal clear. American protection is transactional.
Europe got the message first. NATO allies committed to 5% of GDP on defence by 2035, and Europe has carried the heaviest load in supporting Ukraine's right to defend itself.
The Arab world got the same message the hard way. No Arab state gets the protection Israel gets. When the Houthis declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia and fired missiles at Yanbu and Taif, with alerts sounding as far as Mecca, Washington reportedly turned down Saudi requests for strikes.
So Riyadh acted.
On 7 August, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement. An attack on one is an attack on all. One of the signatories is a NATO member. The Kingdom is now fighting the Iran-backed Houthis on its own terms and taking responsibility for its own security.
And who stepped in? Not Washington. France. Macron is sending soldiers, radars and air defence to protect Yanbu. French ships already patrol the Red Sea under the EU's Aspides mission.
Read that again. Europe defending Saudi energy against an Iranian proxy. Without waiting for America!
That is the story nobody is telling.
Imagine Europe and the Arab world as real strategic partners. Not just meeting to issue statements on Palestine, but working together on counterterrorism, maritime security, energy, technology and AI. Standing together against Tehran's proxy networks and the extremist movements that threaten both our societies.
Europe has industry, technology and institutions. The Gulf has capital, energy, ambition and one of the youngest populations on earth. Together they sit between Russia, Iran and Africa. Together they are a power no axis can ignore.
Would it be easier with America fully on board? Of course. Russia and Iran are best contained by a coalition with Washington in it. But no nation should build its security on the hope that Washington always picks up the phone.
The end of a US-led order does not have to mean a Russian, Chinese or Iranian one. There is a third way. Sovereign nations, standing together, by choice.
Is the end of the American order good or bad? History will judge.
But one thing is already clear. The countries that take responsibility for their own security will shape what comes next. The ones that wait will be shaped by it.
Europe and Saudi Arabia have started. The question is whether they dare to go all the way.
ALT Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud waves to attendees during the first joint European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit, in Brussels, Belgium; October 16, 2024