Weather Enthusiast and NWPAC Climatologist. Director and Chief Forecaster at @IPTCWC. Racing fan WB24 KL5 CH77馃弫. ROLL TIDE 馃悩 FL Everglades Photographer馃悐馃Ι馃
Florida, USA
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I was right
The current situation in the Eastern Pacific. Credit to @ViridWx
Also, I do think this is a rare backloaded EPAC season. After July 20-25 I think it鈥檒l start to produce.
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North Atlantic when it鈥檚 finally about to produce a major hurricane, when the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific have a combined 7 category 5s this season
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#Isaias is taking shape in the Bay of Campeche. It is steadily organizing, and is gaining some curvature to the cloud pattern and stronger outflow developing especially northeast, which will aid convective development over 29C SSTs of the Gulf. (1/
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The set up is very similar to STY Suriage last week in the WPAC. Similar latitude, SST, and direction as it interacts with subtropical jet with trough enhanced outflow. Also, interestingly, enough STY SURIGAE energize the jetstream, allowing right front entrance region to open.
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Between 36-48/54 hours the system should interact with the string subtropical jet as it is steered towards it by the trough. The ULAC beneath Cuba will impart southerly shear but the forward speed should be able to overcome. (3/5)
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Riley Doxsee retweeted
12Z AIGFS vs. operational GFS illustrates this discrepancy nicely. AIGFS is faster and has a much more favorable orientation relative to the trough. GFS has been trending slower and ends up with more westerly shear and less trough interaction.
I'd tend to trust the AI more for track right now, but it'll be tough to say for sure until we get a defined LLC.
There's a bit of an interesting paradox for #92L that could cap its intensity somewhat. Normally you'd expect a slower-moving system over the Gulf to get stronger (more time to sit over the very warm water). But in this case, a faster storm actually will likely be stronger, because it will stay in a favorable alignment with the jet rather than being sheared to death.
Contrast the slower-moving 06Z GFS, which has trended weaker due to westerly shear, with the faster-moving 06Z AIFS, which is in a pocket of lower shear with a more favorable jet interaction.
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Now going on 6 days of having very weak signal at my house. A mile up the road or down the road the signal is good. Verizon keeps saying that we鈥檙e working on fixing the problem. They鈥檝e set 48 hours now for the last week..
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Riley Doxsee retweeted
What would the AP Poll Rankings look like if only Big Ten affiliated voters counted?
The SEC would occupy the top 2 spots and 9 of the top 18 spots.
Virtually nothing changes to the SEC team rankings.
Turns out this narrative that ESPN props up the SEC in the rankings is FAKE.
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This should be known by now. But if not, here it is as we do this Everytime in late September and early October. There is ONE thing in meteorology that you DO NOT bet against. The West Pacific Ocean.
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Choi-Wan was the 7th Cat 5 in the pacific this year (4 WPAC, 2 EPAC, 1 CPAC). Will the pacific as a whole reach 10 Category 5s this year?
Also, Surigae and Nolo were both borderline storms than can teeter either way.
Over/under 9.5 total Pacific Cat 5s this year (current 7)
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Riley Doxsee retweeted
After 33 games at Alabama:
Kalen DeBoer 25-8
Nick Saban 25-8
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Out in the Everglades with my girlfriend.
JK, she鈥檚 AI. Everyone who knows me knows I鈥檒l never get a girlfriend 馃槀
Made with AI
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Riley Doxsee retweeted
Please help! The #Dominator F150 is stuck in a flood road near Olmitz, Kansas 500 yard south of Highway 4. Anyone with truck and tow strap could use a tug
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Collier-Dade training and transition airport (FORMER ALLIGATOR ALCATRAZ LOCATION). I visited the location where the former immigration detention center was held from July 2025-June 2026. It now returns to the limited use/semi-abandoned airstrip in Big Cypress National Preserve.
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