...I delete my tweets. Message is my only goal.
Master Corporate Finance.
Technical analysis.
Bitcoin OG.
Independent offgrid farmer.
Mensa Sverige.
Wealth
THE BINANCE HACKER IS DUMPING ALTCOINS FOR ETH
this hacker sold $UNI, $ENA, $PEPE, $LINK, $AAVE, $ONDO and $WLD, converting everything into around 70,480 $ETH worth of $158.25m.
we’re talking millions in selling pressure across multiple altcoins
and the significant positions in $ARB, $RSR, $ZRO, $ZAMA and $FUN too
the market is already dealing with enough uncertainty
Now this one
Tbh people can keep drawing bullish trendlines, but when a wallet this big is actively selling, i’m watching the transactions before i start buying the dip
Don't try to catch the falling knife until its over
Funny how everyone is bullish this hack.
Refering to start of a bullmarket.
Buy the dip etc
I'm not joining that camp just yet lol.
To heavy crowded.
Alot of trapped longs atm.
I catch the knife when they sell.
Stonks crashed in earnings. Dems winning. ANT dilution.
Aint over
This is just cancer.
I expect 3 waves of selling.
There is always three.
To early to spot.
When I can count three, we might be done.
I'm a knife catcher. But I'm not catching this falling knife. Because we just started the move down.
$Bitcoin$ASST$MSTR
INTEL: On-chain data identifies approximately $5.643B in outflows from Binance-labeled wallets as Tether and Circle freeze at least $2.316B in stablecoins
• Ethereum: $3.528B
• Bitcoin: $1.449B
• Tron: $628M
• Arbitrum, Optimism and Base: $38M combined
Stablecoins frozen:
Hacked and stolen funds are actually bullish...after the initial kneejerk.
Because those coins can not be sold 😅
Thats at least how it worked in the early days.
Not saying that will happen now.
IF $ASST team start to fear a BTC collapse ahead, they will do a Saylor and ATM the shit out of it to build buffer IF Bitcoin would drop heavily...
Oh shit NTC just droped while I wrote this 😅.
This is SPARTA!
$ASST - most likely candidate for the next DAT panic.
$2.1B of debt at a 13% blended rate against $3.4B of BTC. At $50k BTC, the equity has 0 book value while interest still accrues
Meanwhile volume has decayed to ~$60M/day against >$1M of interest due per trading day. That is 1.5% of daily volume sold just to service coupons. At volumes from two months ago, it’s 5%. This simply isn't sustainable
current mNAV of ~1.75x seems excessively rich and in my view should trade at a discount steady state given the interest burden borne by the equity
with both debt instruments now steadily trading below 100 the only way the company can continue buying bitcoin is by selling more common, perfect storm for the common to re-rate to the downside
So where do I pick up $ASST!?
Dono.
Bitcoin will tell me.
But these stocks often bottom far prior to when Bitcoin does.
So I will likely miss the dead low.
$BITCOIN most likely going to revisit the 200 day moving avarage.
Currently at 73,4k
It could flush below a quick spike but it will not stay below.
Buy with both hands all prices below 74k.
We are headed towards 100k.
$ASST$MSTR
$SATA losing par and $STRC stealing a share should not discourage you.
This will resolve.
Not by my wishfull thinking, but from economical incentives.
Yield from STRC will be reinvested in SATA because it offers a higher yield AND lowers investors risk thru diverisification.
But it can take time, lemmings scare and flee, $Strive might need to do buybacks on behalf of $ASST common being strained by such actions.
Could be a mess.
But that will, with a 100% certainty resolve, because of incentives.
New products needs attacks to become strong.
Daily divs was the moat.
Left now is higher yield and lowered risk thru diversification.
That will not go away, that incentives will resolve the waves.
The meaning of life is a very simple question to answer.
The meaning of life, is to create life.
Because if the creation of life ends, life will end with it.
If life no longer exist, then the word life has no meaning.
The money in this space is very agile & sensitive. Dont need much for lemmings to move.
We all are stuck in a prisoners dilemma.
You need to move before the other guy moves to reap the greatest reward.
So money will ebb&flow on very light information.
The threshold is low. $ASST
I sodl alot of $ASST, bought at $12.
I realized this stock is not for hodling.
Just holding BTC instead makes more sense at the moment.
I will most likely revisit.
Institutions want Bitcoin exposure. They can't hold BTC or an ETF.
But they can hold $MSTR or $ASST.
Institutions therefore want dilution, they want to keep mcap at 1:1 and dont buy it with a risky premium.
They want to buy high amounts and that can only be done if ATM is used
...so how do we as retail go about this!?
We buy low mnav and sell high mnav.
Because that is very likely what Strive team going to do.
This shifts ownership from a pure buy and hold into a swap between hold ASST at low mnav and holding BTC at high mnavs, rinse and repeat.