97.4% chance that what I said was sarcastic. Tech entrepreneur. Hands-on market experience. Degrees in engineering, math and economics. Investing for 25+ years.
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Cookie Research retweeted
What Were You Thinking?
Half of the S&P 500’s market capitalization now sits in stocks trading above 10x sales.
What happens next?
It is not a prediction. It is arithmetic. And arithmetic does not care how you feel about it.
themarket.ch/english/thierry…
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Cookie Research retweeted
NATO’s European armies are more than twice the size of the US Army & Marines.
Europe has about 1.5x the artillery, AFVs and Tanks, and out produces the US in artillery shells.
Europe outnumbers Russia in every ground power category by about 2x.
Europe will be fine.
Withdraw from NATO and withdraw all US troops from US bases in Europe and see how many days it takes Russia to conquer Europe.
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Cookie Research retweeted
Two comments about the labor data and political noise surrounding revisions:
1] Establishment survey nonfarm payroll revisions tend to move with economic momentum (so much that rolling revisions look like an economic indicator)
2] The unemployment rate is much less revised.
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Fraud tops with the popping bubble... dexerto.com/entertainment/ai…
"You only find out who's swimming naked when the tide goes out."
I asked ChatGPT to retrieve fraud data from the FTC and create a graph of the average reported loss. Somebody please verify (It initially made an error). @ISABELNET_SA
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"You only find out who's swimming naked when the tide goes out."
I asked ChatGPT to retrieve fraud data from the FTC and create a graph of the average reported loss. Somebody please verify (It initially made an error). @ISABELNET_SA
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When you clearly do not hold any cards.. why should you give notice when you play them?
nypost.com/2025/06/01/us-new…
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Cookie Research retweeted
This is a pretty weak “month end buying” of Treasuries given how big a story it has been
Not boding well for long-end bonds
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Cookie Research retweeted
JUST IN: 67% of US consumers now expect higher unemployment over the next 12 months, the highest since 2008.
This percentage has more than doubled over the last 5 months.
Currently, more Americans anticipate higher unemployment than during the 1981-82, 1990-1991, and 2001 recessions.
In previous economic cycles, such a significant surge in pessimistic outlook has preceded a spike in the unemployment rate.
Consumers have rarely been this pessimistic about the labor market.
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Cookie Research retweeted
Yes, saw the conference board release yesterday. Recession probability dropping .. yearh right. I have a large chuck of iron for sale in the middle of Paris. You need to disassemble the structure yourself, but I will offer you a good price on it.
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