Today's Fed rate decision will be announced at 11am PT / 2pm ET. The market is currently projecting a 93% probability that there's a 25-bp rate hike. One other place this probability shows up is with 1-Month Term SOFR. We simplify loan pricing by saying "SOFR + 2.50%", but the reality is almost every lender is using 1-Month Term SOFR which is based on futures contracts and reflects market expectations for SOFR over the coming month. For most of 2026, overnight SOFR and 1-Month Term SOFR tracked in the 3.60s. However, these rates started to diverge at the beginning of September when the market began repricing the probability of a Fed rate hike on September 16th (today). 1-Month Term SOFR has already increased 25 bps to 3.89% this morning, while overnight SOFR is still 3.64%. For those that have floating rate agency loans, it's worth noting that the agencies do not use 1-Month Term SOFR, but 30-day Average SOFR which is backwards looking. So the impact of today's hike will be reflected gradually in your interest expense over the following 30 days, rather than immediately.

I think Jones is him. @PFTCommenter

I feel like @chesk770 is really pro Trump. @Dk12796

Love the Blake chants as Brooks tees off. #suspendedBlake @PardonMyTake @hen_ease @PFTCommenter @BarstoolBigCat

Judge walking into arbitration tomorrow. @PFTCommenter @Billyhottakes @PardonMyTake

Judge is a wagon @Billyhottakes @PFTCommenter @PardonMyTake

USWNT getting paid the same as men now… but what is a woman? 🤔 @MattWalshBlog @Dk12796