realist@work retweeted
Have argued for years if PhD Economists feel we need to drive up unemployment to deal with a supply shock, the first people who should lose their jobs are the PhD Economists ... It has been known since the early 1980s raising interest rates doesn't slow supply side driven inflation.
Larry Summers too said in 2022/23 that to bring inflation down we would need at least one year of unemployment above 10%. It came down with unemployment at around 4%. This is a supply problem, curtailing demand won’t fix it
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realist@work retweeted
Trump's betrayal of Saudi Arabia was brutal as fuck. Stone cold. Right under the bus, without a thought. It's actually quite impressive.
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RT @NewUraniumHope: GLO.TO dropped a press release On Friday afternoon dramatically increasing estimates for DASA project…
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As much as I like Houthis to lose, we have to consider something first. Saudi Arabia has been a primary cause of chaos in the region. The glossy brochure version of Saudi Arabia is a desert renaissance with megaprojects and Vision 2030. The actual state was built on conquest. Every neighbor has a file, grudges and reason to hate it. The House of Saud begins in 1744, when Muhammad bin Saud of Diriyah allied with Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab. The first Saudi state was not a quiet emirate. It was a takfiri project that sacked Karbala and Najaf and seized Mecca and Medina. That state fell. The second fell in the 19th century. Abdulaziz ibn Saud rebuilt the third in the early 1900s with one clear aim: take the whole peninsula. Yemen: In 1934 Ibn Saud invaded and, under the Treaty of Taif, annexed Asir, Najran, and Jizan. The 2015 coalition war was not a sudden moral awakening. It was the same frontier, updated with air power. Iraq: In the 1920s, Wahhabi Ikhwan raiders hit Iraqi towns on Ibn Saud’s orders. The 1922 Uqair Protocol drew a line and a neutral zone. Riyadh never fully dropped the claim. Kuwait: In 1920 Ibn Saud tried to swallow the sheikhdom and lost at Jahra. Britain stepped in. More than half the territory Kuwait had claimed went to the Saudis. The Neutral Zone and the Arash/Durra field are still unresolved. UAE: In 1952 Saudi forces pushed into the Buraimi oasis, claimed by Oman and Abu Dhabi. In 1974 the Jeddah agreement forced Abu Dhabi to cede the Khor al-Udaid strip so the UAE lost its land link to Qatar. Qatar: Armed clashes at al-Khafus in 1992. Then the 2017 land, air, and sea blockade. Same pattern: pressure first, diplomacy later. Oman: Repeated attempts to stir interior tribes and seize Buraimi so Saudi reach could stretch to the Indian Ocean. Local forces and Britain pushed them back. Jordan: Raids in 1922 and 1924 aimed at Amman. British air power stopped them. Today’s border is the product of later imposed lines. Egypt: The feud goes back to Muhammad Ali Pasha destroying the first Saudi state. In the modern era Riyadh used political and economic pressure to take Tiran and Sanafir at the mouth of the Gulf of Aqaba. This is not ancient trivia. It is the operating system. The kingdom markets itself as a stabilizer while its borders were drawn by force, treaties under duress, and leftover claims. Gulf PR does not erase history. Especially in Yemen. The Sauds are partially responsible for creation of Houthis in the first place but medding in Yemeni affairs and conquering land from it. So, it is no surprise Saudi Arabia finds itself in the mess of its own creating. Lucky for them, there is more incentive to stop Houthis than punishing Saudi Arabia. But now is the time for Saudi Arabia to wake up, and actually become the renaissance state they pretend they are.
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We might be having some very UNCOMFORTABLE conversations on who does the med better 🇫🇷 🇮🇹 Seriously, As a certified & well experienced La dolce vita connoisseur, I don’t see or FEEL much difference, Besides that it’s CLEAN I seriously underestimated the French, when it came to mediterranean SOUL 📍 Villefranche-sur-Mer
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realist@work retweeted
If true, could we replace all the George Floyd statues and art with statues and art to this guy?
NEW: Lindsay Clancy juror Paula Devlin reveals on 'CBS Mornings' that the lone, male holdout juror who voted to find Clancy guilty of murdering her children was the *only* person of color -- a black man. The 11 not-guilty jurors -- who hectored him for a week to cave -- were all white.
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realist@work retweeted
Who did this
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realist@work retweeted
Around 10 years ago I realized, that I'd rather starve than write another CV.
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realist@work retweeted
With few exceptions, oil and gas CEOs have historically come from engineering/ops. They knew oil. But after Conoco transition, 3.5 of 10 largest oil company CEOs will have come up through finance (PR has co-CEOs). Capital allocation is increasingly the most important part of job.
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Japan’s 2-year yield just gapped up more than 4% today. This is starting to look like a breakaway move. The market is effectively forcing the BOJ’s hand: Japanese yields ↑ Oil ↑ Inflation pressure ↑ → BOJ forced toward tighter policy And this isn’t the long end anymore. We are now seeing short-end government bond yields move like meme coins. That should get everyone’s attention. When the supposedly safest part of the financial system starts trading with this kind of volatility, something in the global rates regime is changing fast.
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realist@work retweeted
I have seen enough. If you are a successful trader/investor, you don’t need to do “teasers” for stocks to drive subscription fees. It just makes no sense. Do you see John Arnold charging people for energy commentary, fuck no. Bc he has already made it, he doesnt need to. But when I questioned @JoshYoung today, he immediately blocked me, though he has been wrong on energy for 6 months now. I can’t explain why a Michael Burry or Scumath would do it, there is something ethically wrong to me to being that wealthy and not sharing your knowledge/experience just in the spirit of open flow of ideas. There is just no excuse for a billionaire charging fees for a Substack. It’s pathetic. I’m not saying it isnt OK to charge for good content. Just don’t hold yourself out to be some well-established trader/investor that has already coined it, because unless you have mental issues, you wouldn’t charge if that was the case. Compute might be scarce. Common sense on FinX is 💯 scarce. Please exercise some before parting with your hard earned dollars. —JG
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realist@work retweeted
🔴President Trump announcement is a historic gift to the Iranian regime and the IRGC. Watch how the regime capitalizes on it and uses it against the Iranian opposition based in the US. Also, President Trump might have just ruined the $XOM & $CVX negotiations in Iraq. 😉
I've never seen a post that provides enough material for multiple books like this one.
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realist@work retweeted
Replying to @PraiseKek
Keep hearing the biggest thesis to owning $NXE (at current levels) is a buyout. Not a good strategy to rely on... as valuation is very rich for a company that wont make a dime for over 5 years.
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realist@work retweeted
You can’t get hyperinflation in the reserve currency because the demand isn’t coming from your own economy, it’s coming from everyone else’s. Roughly 58% of global FX reserves sit in dollars, per IMF COFER data. Trade between Brazil and Indonesia gets invoiced in dollars. Foreign borrowers owe something like $13 trillion in dollar debt they have to service no matter what the Fed does at home. That’s a demand floor no other currency has. Look at what happened after 2008. The Fed’s balance sheet went from $900 billion to $4.5 trillion, then to nearly $9 trillion in 2020. In Argentina or Zimbabwe, that kind of expansion chases a fixed domestic goods basket and spirals into a wage-price loop. Here it got absorbed into global demand for dollar assets, mainly Treasuries, because there’s nowhere else deep enough to park that capital. The euro can’t absorb it. The yuan can’t, not with capital controls still in place. Weimar Germany is the counter-case that proves the point. The Reichsmark had no external demand cushion, so every mark printed chased the same shrinking basket of goods at home. That’s the actual mechanism behind hyperinflation. Reserve status breaks it before it starts.
You cannot have hyperinflation in the reserve currency.
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RT @chigrl: If you live in the NorthEast, know this. Your regulations have contributed to the lack of pipelines and the refinery closures i…
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realist@work retweeted
NexGen $NXE trades at 1.6x its official NPV Very few mining developers in any commodity trade at this multiple The uranium market has gotten extremely rich 2017-2020: ~30 uranium stocks Now: 100+
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realist@work retweeted
Exploration company CEO + CFO when you ask why marketing spend is greater than drilling spend
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Canada should put a 15% export tax on oil a month before midterms then see what kind of deal they can get given impact on middle America gas prices. Alienating a country we rely on for oil is insane
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My tl is full of gold juniors. Makes it feel toppy to me.
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realist@work retweeted
No credit housing boom, no credit housing bust, but a lot of talking since 2012
US household leverage (liabilities to net wealth) is the lowest in 50 years JPM
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