Starting to feel like the regime change of Q3'21...

We had this conversation today with our IC. Our conclusion was more 1872. Massive investment on top of real productivity gains.

Yo Muse randomly called me Arjun today and then started gaslighting me and stereotyping me

I just closed up one of the biggest trades of my life my 4000 lot $INTC 60/80 call spread I've been in since April. I got around 19.16 on average, max value would have been $20 in 7 more weeks but having all this money I will return far more in that timeframe.

Hey dumbass click the link on my page there’s thousands of people who subscribe to one of the biggest substacks in the world who can verify the trade yesterday. It’s ok if you’re a moron and don’t know what you’re looking at, many on here don’t.

You’re an idiot that’s why. How about you check the volume today on November 60/80 call spreads.

Okay Instinct is wild. Just found and filed for $2,182 in lost dollars owed to me. It even found my ssn proof and signed the forms using a photo of my passport for signature. 🤯 Prompt: “Search every state's unclaimed property database for money owed to me. Use my full name and every city I've lived in. For anything you find: tell me what it is, who owes it, and how much - then file the claims end-to-end. Walk me through any documents or signatures you need from me, and don't stop until every claim is submitted.” Thanks to @peterpham for the tip.

As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty: This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries Google’s response? Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for A few examples to illustrate: For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact -match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)” The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants) This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future This is now no longer the case At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose

Lara Trump reveals President Trump’s UNEXPECTED reaction the night he left the White House in 2021: “He told all of us that he wanted to have dinner that night. And none of us really knew how that would go. And the first thing he did, before he even sat down at the dinner table, is he looked around at all of us and he goes, ‘Well, kids, I’ve got to do it again.’” “Any one of the things that he had against him, especially in the four years in between terms, would have been enough for one person to say, ‘You know what? That’s it. I’m out of this. I’m never going to do it again.’ But he never gave up. He continued to fight for what he wanted, but what he, I think, knew was right to do.”

I’m 38. I make $175k per month. I owe it all to the world’s most boring strategy. Here’s what I do (& how you can too):

JAPAN’S GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING INTERVENTION IN CRUDE OIL FUTURES $USO $UCO $BNO

A thought I've been having: last summer the admin was very skillful in using/manipulating the media environment to create strategic deception & surprise in advance of attacking Iran's nuclear facilities

No again: US oil export ban discussion. If the Trump administration ends implementing an oil policy every Republican said it was a mistake when the Biden administration floated it, well, that would be quite something. Is MAGA outflanking the Democrats by going further left?

An Al Jazeera opinion piece on the American and Israel attacks on Iran — and how hugely successful and organized they have been — is somehow better analyzed than any American media piece I’ve read on Iran. Seriously, read it: aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/…

Most debates about the Iran war are focused on the opening strikes That misses the real strategic problem Across more than a century of warfare, conflicts often escalate through a simple pattern: Initial strike → retaliation → widening pressure for escalation As a political scientist who studies how wars escalate, I see four hard truths that repeatedly shape how wars like this evolve—and how they end A short thread

Truth #4: The most dangerous phase of war is the middle Initial strike → retaliation → widening pressure for escalation Imagine six weeks from now: --more strikes inside Iran, proxy attacks expanding, oil markets swinging, outside powers quietly intervening The most dangerous phase of war is the middle. The real question now: Has the middle phase already begun?

A shipping CEO with tankers near Strait of Hormuz used two words a few hours ago about need for the US to “immediately”, “urgently” open the Strait. Asked “does the White House understand what is at stake?”

BOOOOO!!! HISSS!!!!!

The country is 100% behind the president on fixing a global system of tariffs that has disadvantaged the country. But, business is a confidence game and confidence depends on trust. President @realDonaldTrump has elevated the tariff issue to the most important geopolitical issue in the world, and he has gotten everyone’s attention. So far, so good. And yes, other nations have taken advantage of the U.S. by protecting their home industries at the expense of millions of our jobs and economic growth in our country. But, by placing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and our enemies alike and thereby launching a global economic war against the whole world at once, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital. The president has an opportunity to call a 90-day time out, negotiate and resolve unfair asymmetric tariff deals, and induce trillions of dollars of new investment in our country. If, on the other hand, on April 9th we launch economic nuclear war on every country in the world, business investment will grind to a halt, consumers will close their wallets and pocket books, and we will severely damage our reputation with the rest of the world that will take years and potentially decades to rehabilitate. What CEO and what board of directors will be comfortable making large, long-term, economic commitments in our country in the middle of an economic nuclear war? I don’t know of one who will do so. When markets crash, new investment stops, consumers stop spending money, and businesses have no choice but to curtail investment and fire workers. And it is not just the big companies that will suffer. Small and medium size businesses and entrepreneurs will experience much greater pain. Almost no business can pass through an overnight massive increase in costs to their customers. And that’s true even if they have no debt, and, unfortunately, there is a massive amount of leverage in the system. Business is a confidence game. The president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe. The consequences for our country and the millions of our citizens who have supported the president — in particular low-income consumers who are already under a huge amount of economic stress — are going to be severely negative. This is not what we voted for. The President has an opportunity on Monday to call a time out and have the time to execute on fixing an unfair tariff system. Alternatively, we are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down. May cooler heads prevail.

What are the likelihood Trumps tariffs will boost the US economy and why?