Bitcoin is already 177 days in its deep-value zone relative to its power-law trend. Historically, this far in a deep drawdown is unlikely. Only 0.1% of past days this far in were followed by a 30%+ drawdown within 90 days.

Jul 25, 2026 · 2:37 PM UTC

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To be fair, though, we currently are still at a much lower price drawdown from all-time high than during previous bear markets (-49%). It may be a shallower bear due to Bitcoin maturing, or there is more to come.
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But for now, price is holding up. Either way, this cycle is different.
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The chart is from my Bitcoin Market Structure Dashboard; more live data online. janwuestenfeld.github.io/btc…

Bitcoin Market Structure Dashboard

Where Bitcoin stands: its link to the stock market, its place in its own cycle, the odds of a deep fall next quarter, and what the derivatives market is pricing.

janwuestenfeld.github.io
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Replying to @JanWues
It would take a black swan. 99.9% sure that won't happen. Few
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Replying to @JanWues
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