Satya Nadella reveals his coding agent pulls every hyperscaler and neoclouds' SEC filings into a dashboard that refreshes every day for real-time ROIC "And this is the other aspect of it, which is the enterprise context combined with the world's context. In fact, I go to the SEC filings of every cloud provider, hyperscaler, each of these neoclouds. It's in real time." "I have a data runner in Fabric that brings all that data, puts it into a semantic model that then gets read by my coding agent and then surfaces it as a dashboard. And every day it's fresh." "So I have the entirety of every SEC filing that goes out there, plus all of my internal analysis constantly coming together, giving me real-time ROIC by layer."

If you’re curious about Effective Altruism, the origins of the cult, their tactics, and their influence network — check out my conversation with Tucker from two years ago:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. opens up on his slump year: “They didn’t pay me to hit 40 every year. They paid me for what I already did.” I want people to understand one thing. The money they gave me wasn’t for what I’m going to do. It was for what I already did. They didn’t pay me because I’m going to hit 40 every year. They paid me for what I already accomplished. People are confused about that, but I think the same way they do. Like, sometimes I even say to myself: bro, they gave you all that money and you’re out here doing nothing. I try. You know how it is with fans, when you’re good, they’re with you 100%. But when you smell like shit, like we like to say here, nobody supports you. The ones who support you are the ones who stay with you. Those are my fans. My family. Via VeronicabatistaTv/IG

08/10: I love the HEATMAP view - I keep on a TV in my office ... another lens for factor moves YIELDS are really starting to spook people ... whats interesting to me is SHORTS are being RE-grossed ... EVERY SINGLE FACTOR is red, you rarely see that a) people are grossing back up (need something to fund longs) b) people getting more defensive (closing up net longs) *I suspect b* ahead of Jackson hole and pre-labor day volumes dry up MACRO PULSE has said last 1m/3m very disinflationary... now today "inflationary" ... one day doesn't make a trend ... but the action today is subtle shifts in the force

"AGENTIC BUILDOUT" ... as my favorite cape cod baseball coach use to say ... "a freak of natuhh" *FYI...recently added the AI REGULATION LOSERS basket

Opening access for developers to build Muse connectors. You bring the API -- Muse brings the agent, the browser, and the context of what the person actually wants. People reach your service just by asking for it, and their agent takes it from there. New connectors are live today. Come build with us. muse.ai/platform

OAI ECOSYSTEM (v4) update 8/26 People seam to be losing their minds again so I wanted to give a quick update on my graphic TLDR: The Circle is BIGGER, Not TIGHTER .. we have paid for ~23GW ... how do we pay for 100GW is the only question BULLS and BEARS have to answer UPDATES IN V4: - OAI raise closed. $122B at an $852B valuation ... IPO likely in the Fall (my guess) - SoftBank came back as a co-lead - $NVDA got smaller, not bigger. The $100B headline is now ~$30B of actual equity... the $500bn is an ecosystem partner check not an OAI check... though they will benefit - $CRWV went from rounding error to real: $0.35B of equity became $6.3B (+) $22B of compute bought - $ORCL 3x ... $100–200B range firmed into a $300B commitment - $AMD $90B for 6 GW, not $100B - there's a credit line now ~$4.7B undrawn across eleven banks - employees took $7B off the table in August, at the same $852B mark. No markdown - the IPO is real but quiet: a confidential S-1 went in during June... does ANTHROPIC go before? - the $MSFT fight is over. Exclusivity gone, AGI clause deleted, licence runs to 2032 - OAI partners now carry ~$1.2T of the build up from ~$1.0T, and the total still lands at $1.4–1.5T IF YOU ARE A BULL... it seems like there is infinite demand for TOKENS IF YOU ARE A BEAR... you point right to slide #2

1/2 Lets think about this from the ground up. You are a modal L/S HF and you want to make sure you will be around in 10 years, so you decide you need to make some serious changes. You probably have never hired anybody technical or you have less than a handful of technical people of questionable quality on staff to do this (maybe a DS/SDA + a SWE). You will have to outlay significant upfront cost to build infra + hire expensive technical talent in a market where you are much more likely to be outbid for high quality talent (and mid to low quality is arguably worse than nobody here). While prop firms have a longer time horizon to do this, you will need to convince LPs and GPs substantially invested in the fund that it is worth the firm's time and energy to undergo this transition and expense + you will have to convince your LPs that you will be able to pull this off without it seeming like a red flag and strategy drift. Say you do all that, you hire 1-2 actual QRs, 1-2 actual SWEs, nice to haves would also be a dedicated risk quant + microstructure quant/qt instead of relying on just the manual execution trader(s) you probably have. Now you have to go about the process of building the commercially useful things without burning too much time + adding value to the desk so your LPs and GPs maintain faith in what you are doing. You will need to build or buy a risk model and a portfolio optimizer but what's this, if you want to do optimization correctly you will need to calibrate a market impact model because you are probably overtrading and have never really thought about TCA, temporary impact, and permanent impact so you will need to procure or generate a dataset of your trades and the market's response to them only to find out that your long horizon alphas would have a better transfer coefficient if you overlaid short term execution alphas. But then you run into a few problems: 1) doing research at the microstructure scale requires much more complex infra, larger and more expensive datasets, 2) Do do this effectively you essentially need a team dedicated to stat arb style signal research but you are just a MT/LT fundamental investor, 3) even if you were able to put a small team on optimal execution signal research + monetization you will come to the realization that you are trading against counterparties at this frequency that can outcompete you on both speed and cost fronts since they are market makers/HFT firms with rebates and colocation you are unable to afford or procure. What this optimal path ends up looking like is exactly a prop firm and why I believe they will outcompete even the Citadels/Millenniums/Balys of the world

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U.S. Markets to begin trading 23 hours a day, Monday-Friday, beginning on December 6 🚨 A 1-hour break will be given so that we can all eat, perfect! 🥳

LIQN FACTOR OPTIONS (beta) lets take a look at what options are telling us about FACTORS heading into FOMC ... another lens for Liquidation Nation 1. EVERY ONE OF THE "HF SHORT" BASKETS ARE PRICED TO SQUEEZE: 18 of 18 have calls more expensive than puts. Crowded & Beaten-Down: calls cost 23 pts more. Vol 37% above realized. That's a chase, and it's already in the price 2. CYBER & SOFTWARE are "cheap": Cybersecurity group prices vol at 0.75× what it realizes: AI Security 45% implied against 64% realized, Identity Security 37% against 52%, Cybersecurity 44% against 62%. Enterprise Software is 0.90×, with AI Monetizers at 0.66 3. The AI complex is where the dollars and the biggest priced moves are, and the dollars are all calls....Complete AI Stack traded $5.37B of options premium today...Vol itself is fairly priced across the AI groups at 1.0 to 1.05× realized, so this is size and direction Good luck for Warsh