Diary for speculative market analysis and frequent political musings. L/S enjoyer
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The name of a killed service member covered up by a Dow Jones index ticker is a pretty grim metaphor for how America often operates.
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Frothy Assets retweeted
Great graph (from @EtraAlex ) on the net supply of duration in US bond markets over time
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Unfortunately for Republicans, the situation is very easy to describe:
1. Trump won a cost-of-living election
2. Then he publicly announced a plan to raise the price of imports
3. Then he even-more-publicly started a war that raised the price of gas
4. Meanwhile, he got rich on crypto scams, while engaging in downright Pynchonian misadventures with the reflecting pool and ballroom, which sent the unmistakeable signal that "I care more about random bullshit than America's money problems ... and also I'm not even good at executing on the random bullshit"
For the midterms, I think corruption/self-dealing is issue 1b behind cost of living as 1a.
It's not just that people feel things are unaffordable for themselves, they think those in power are helping rich friends get richer.
From our latest "America in Focus" focus group...
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Frothy Assets retweeted
For the midterms, I think corruption/self-dealing is issue 1b behind cost of living as 1a.
It's not just that people feel things are unaffordable for themselves, they think those in power are helping rich friends get richer.
From our latest "America in Focus" focus group...
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Very impressive amount of free data on here neatly compiled to view market shifts.
Solid visuals, great work @JaredKubin
liqn.ai/landing
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AGENTIC FLOWS day 2.. more AI/RISK ON ... monster Z moves
*AGENTIC BUILDOUT: +$3.5bn NET (4 z move)
**INFERENCE CAPEX: +$2bn NET (3 z move)
***AI PICKS & SHOVELS: +$1.9bn NET (3 z move)
NET FLOWS:
- Every bar per stock: dollars traded is volume times price rolled up into the factor ... 2 roll ups
- Split it into buy/cover & sell/shorts: compare the bar's price change to how much that stock usually moves per minute... measured over its last 60 min (big up move relative to normal means most of the dollars count as buying. A big down move means most count as selling) A flat bar splits close to 50/50
- Net for that bar: buy/cover dollars minus sell/short dollars
Z SCORE IS CALCULATION HEAVY:
- Same minute NOT same day: at 2:15pm we compare today's flow so far... against flow up to 2:15pm on EACH PAST SESSION. That means a separate "normal" for every minute of the session, around 390 of them per factor...think of it like expanding but using stock bars
- Per window: we build those curves for 5D, 1M, 3M, YTD and 1Y. Each window needs a minimum number of clean sessions, for example 17 for 1M and 60 for 1Y
- Robustness: we use the median and the typical deviation from it, not the average and standard deviation. One freak session like an index rebalance or a half day can't wreck the baseline
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Frothy Assets retweeted
If you are good at scoring on IQ tests, but not particularly imaginative, AI is in the process of making you obsolete.
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There's a new @SPDJIndices paper out on factor performance during various macro regimes. A couple observations:
-Quality had highest Sharpe overall
-Low Vol was the only one to have + Sharpe in every case studied
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Year-to-date, the GS Most Shorted Basket is up +40% while the GS Long Short Equity Hedge Fund Proxy is down -23%.
One of the best investment strategies this year was to buy the market's junkiest stocks while shorting the highest-quality undervalued businesses.
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Finally, the confirmation bias I longed after
FUCK.
Been a while since I posted something this interesting.
Today, QQQ was
▪ Up at least +2.75%
▪ On a day VXN (VIX for QQQ) was up at least +1.00 point
And how has QQQ done 2 weeks and 1 month after every similar event in the past?
Hahahahahahafuck.
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Look, I know...perma-bear blah blah blah.
But this is crazy stuff.
There are 2 days in history like today, when the S&P 500 $SPY rallied at least 1% to within 1% of a new high, and more of its stocks fell to new lows than highs.
• Jul 23, 1929
• Dec 21, 1999
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Frothy Assets retweeted
You’re showing left-handedness rising by roughly 300%.
Transsexualism was estimated at roughly 1 in 46,000 people in the 1990s. Today, 2.4% of Americans identify as transgender. That is an increase of approximately 110,700%, or more than 1,100-fold.
300 percent is plausible. 110,700 percent is social contagion.
This chart is one of the best examples that falsifies the "everyone is coming out as gay/trans because it's a trend" argument.
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It's tragic what trans activists have done to children by promoting a folk science of gender-affirming care.
A landmark Finnish study has found a sharp rise in psychiatric illness among adolescents following sex-alteration procedures.
The peer-reviewed study, published in Acta Paediatrica, tracked every young person under 23 who contacted Finland's gender clinics between 1996 and 2019.
A total 2,083 individuals were studied, with 16,643 matched controls. They were followed for up to 25 years.
Finland's health registers are mandatory, which means no one opts out — this is the complete national picture.
The numbers: psychiatric morbidity rose from 9.8% to 60.7% in adolescents who underwent feminising reassignment, and from 21.6% to 54.5% in masculinising reassignment.
Even after adjusting for prior psychiatric history, gender-referred adolescents faced five times the risk of male population controls, and three times the risk of female controls.
"Psychiatric needs do not subside after medical gender reassignment," the authors concluded.
Referrals after 2010 arrived sicker. 47.9% had already needed psychiatric treatment before their first clinic visit, against 15.3% among controls.
The authors' read: for some adolescents, gender distress may be secondary to other mental health challenges.
The evidence keeps mounting. The silencing continues anyway.
How many more adolescents will be told this is "care"?
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An Australian mother who stabbed her two young sons to death in their beds has avoided a prison sentence after a judge found she was not criminally responsible because she was suffering from "a severe case of major depression".
noticer.news/mother-killed-c…
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This is how wealth effect transmits to higher inflation
It’s increasing consumption relation to wages
Central banks focusing on wage growth / labor market are totally blind
1 in 5 Parents of 35 to 40-Year-Olds Are Still Helping Pay the Bills - RBC survey
rbc.com/newsroom/news/articl…
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See even the Houthis respect the American Stock market.
With 24/7 markets we would ensure World Peace.
NOW: Sirens are currently sounding in the Taif, Jazan, Yanbu, Khamis Mushait and Jeddah Governorates.
It appears that the Houthis are launching a large scale attack on Saudi Arabia. This is huge.
Contributed by: @BeamTracker_
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