Nassim Nicholas Taleb
@nntaleb

Flaneur: probability (philosophy), probability (mathematics), probability (real life),Phoenician wine, deadlifts & dead languages. Greco-Levantine.Canaan. #RWRI

amazon.com/Statistical-Conse…
Joined September 2011
6,771 Photos and videos
Dear enemies, detractors, libellers, university rats, genocide propagandists, ethnic cleansing & baby murder promoters, & label conscious Davos midwits, it also happens that #Antifragility is the most influential 21st C. concept.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
@nntaleb
30 Jul 2024
Dear enemies,The Black Swan is now the most influential (that is, discussed/mentioned) 21st C book. While almost all books have a half-life between 2 and 6 months, it does not appear to have a half-life. #Lindy [Same with other 4 books in the Incerto. Graph is US only]
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Noise tends to grow in a concave way (for a Gaussian, sqrt[t]), signal adds up linearly. So over the long run signal tends to swamp noise.
Josh@NealPortenza
3h
Replying to @nntaleb
Nassim, could you please give a small real world example of noise being self-cancelling? I have many and love all of your books (the ones I can understand) but it's always great to get a real example from you for my marshmallow brain!
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To simplify the INCERTO: noise is self cancelling, signal is additive.
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2) Some are unable to detect signal; they mistake noise for signal.
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My new approach when facing harassment by people using AI to write long mails offering non-services such as "find readers for my book": ask AI to generate a 12K words complicated and labyrinthine reply.
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The 14,500 words reply to someone who wants to do a movie version of Stat Cons of Fat Tails and promote it.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb retweeted
Jeffrey West
@mathoncbro
13h
My mental model of targeted therapies: 1. Convex dose response (double the dose, get less than double response) 2. Concave resistance onset (cut the dose in half, reduce the resistance by more than half)
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Meanwhile I've planted 600 olive trees.
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Actually, 700.
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Actually, 800 in total
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Warning: Some oleophobic Israeli settler will come pull out this olive tree, just out of spite.
Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani
@NYCMayor
Sep 24
Last night I planted an olive tree at Gracie Mansion with Palestinian families from Gaza.  May peace be our future.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb retweeted
Kegham Balian
@kbalian90
Sep 24
William, a 9-year-old Armenian Christian boy, was pepper-sprayed by Israeli Jewish extremists while riding his bike in Jerusalem on Yom Kippur. He was listening to music when the terrorists approached him menacingly and told him to remove his headphones. They heard him speaking English, and one of them said "No English, Jews!", and attacked him. You can hear his mother trying to comfort him, reassuring him that his little sister Arev is okay.
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So to every AI generated letter I receive, I respond with an AI generated 12,000 word rambling reply.
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Interestingly, 6 European countries. This year.
Abier
@abierkhatib
Sep 24
That’s a huge crowd… 77 delegations reportedly walked out when Netanyahu started his speech. Arab countries 18 Syria Palestine Jordan Lebanon Iraq Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait Oman Yemen Egypt Sudan Tunisia Algeria Libya Mauritania Somalia Comoros Asia — 14 Türkiye Iran Pakistan Afghanistan Bangladesh Indonesia Malaysia Brunei Maldives Myanmar North Korea Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Africa — 20 South Africa Senegal Djibouti Angola Republic of the Congo Democratic Republic of the Congo Liberia Eritrea Chad Central African Republic Madagascar Niger Botswana Uganda Lesotho Eswatini Equatorial Guinea Mozambique Namibia Kenya Latin America & Caribbean- 17 Suriname Panama Venezuela Antigua and Barbuda Belize Barbados Colombia Dominica Nicaragua Peru Saint Lucia Bahamas Bolivia Cuba Guyana Brazil Chile Europe-6 North Macedonia San Marino Slovenia Bosnia and Herzegovina Spain Ireland Pacific-2 Tuvalu Tonga Total: 77 delegations.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb retweeted
Maria Aristodemou@maariaris
Sep 24
While state delegates walk out of Netanyahu’s speech at the UN General Assembly, Mitsotakis goes out of his way to meet and hug him. The shame of this. The ignominy. The disgrace. Don’t you dare pretend you represent Greek people Mitsotakis. You represent only your own obscenity.
i24NEWS English
@i24NEWS_EN
Sep 24
Netanyahu meets with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis on the sidelines of the UNGA to discuss furthering the strategic partnership between the two countries Read more here 👉i24news.tv/en/news/internati…
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb retweeted
Max Blumenthal
@MaxBlumenthal
Sep 24
"Of course we're conflated" Neocon David Frum all but confirms he was acting on Israel's behalf when he wrote Bush's notorious "Axis of Evil" speech, plunging the US into a war which killed 1 million Iraqis & left thousands of American soldiers maimed or killed Very dangerous
David Frum
@davidfrum
Sep 24
The "don't conflate Israel and diaspora Jews" gambit is pure extortion. It invites diaspora Jews to seek safety by condoning -and even validating- terrorist violence against Israel. It's an offer to spurn. Of course we're conflated, proudly so. piped.video/watch?v=qVymo7Qr…
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If a country (Zionistan) needs to spend 800 million dollars for an image problem, its problem is not an image problem. #Fragility
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Actually, come to think about it, academia is populated with wimps & gamma males good at taking tests but crippled with a total absence of imagination.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
@nntaleb
Sep 23
If you are good at scoring on IQ tests, but not particularly imaginative, AI is in the process of making you obsolete.
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Zionistas have some real issues with olive trees.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb retweeted
Dr. Annelle Rodriguez Sheline
@AnnelleSheline
Sep 22
Congratulations to @AkbarSAhmed, whose book, CROSSING THE RED LINE, is out today. Especially as Biden administration officials try to whitewash their reputations, Akbar's detailed reporting provides a vital resource for those who want to hold them accountable.
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