@CookPolitical Report with @amyewalter Senate & Governors Editor. Senior author @The_Almanac. TN native/Vols fan. #1 Dolly Parton stan. @FurmanU alum. Dog mom.
Washington, DC
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Jessica Taylor retweeted
SUNDAY 8a & 11a ET: Pres. Trump campaigns in red states as more GOP lawmakers break ranks ... PLUS: @mkraju catches up with Sen. John Cornyn about Republicans' worries about the Texas Senate race. @DavidChalian, @JessicaTaylor & @mikeallen join #InsidePolitics.
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And on this Dolly Day, I would kill to be working just 9 to 5 these days, but we are 39 days out
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It's national Dolly Day today, but if you think I haven't been wearing a Dolly shirt almost every day since she died (and pretty regularly before that), do you even know me?
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Jessica Taylor retweeted
The Cook Political Report is moving 15 House races, all in Democrats' direction, as the worsening political environment for Republicans has made the GOP's chances of keeping control of the chamber almost impossible.
Read @ercovey's overview here:
cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
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Dems are Friday Night Lights fans
JUST IN: Chuck Schumer's Senate Majority PAC registers a new affiliate SuperPAC, Texas Forever #TXSen
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SLF/NRSC did warn about this in particular. #NCSen also would be closer right now if Trump hadn’t pushed Tillis into retirement over OBBB
This NYT focus group of Trump-->swing voters in Texas is brutal. They just keep saying over and over again the problem is Paxton, they'd have been fine with Cornyn, what was wrong with Cornyn, etc etc etc nytimes.com/interactive/2026…
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Jessica Taylor retweeted
Thune said he understands if GOP candidates need to rhetorically distance themselves from Congress or even fellow Republicans in D.C., including himself.
"I tell candidates, you know, do what you need to do. Be you."
NEW: Thune plans to run for another term as GOP leader — even if Republicans lose the chamber's majority
"That's ultimately up to the conference," he emphasized when I asked if he'd run again for leader, but "that's the plan."
axios.com/2026/09/23/john-th…
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It was a madhouse trying to get into Neyland for the Furman game. For one with Secret Service….eesh.
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A second piece today, with a look for subscribers where each Toss Up Senate race stands
Our current outlook for the Senate predicts Democrats could net between one and five Senate seats come Election Day. But where could those gains come from among our Toss Up column?
Read @JessicaTaylor for a quick recap of each contest.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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Jessica Taylor retweeted
New @CNN poll shows 66% of US adults say Trump's policies have worsened economic conditions.
The most who said that about Biden was 58%.
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Jessica Taylor retweeted
Here's an eye-popping graph, illustrating the steep slope of national GOP money pouring in for Ken Paxton in #TXSEN:
SLF-backed Texas PAC is up to $68.5M in ad buys, surpassing Talarico's $56M, per @AdImpact_Pol.
texastribune.org/2026/07/20/… via @TexasTribune
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Jessica Taylor retweeted
President Trump told people earlier this month to pretend he’s on the ballot.
The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll out today shows voters are already doing that…
…just maybe not in the way he is hoping.
More: npr.org/2026/09/23/nx-s1-597…
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NEW this morning from @CookPolitical — with under 6 weeks to go, our revised Senate outlook. Dems poised to pick up b 1-5seats. We are moving three ratings:
#GASen from Lean D to Likely D
#KSSen from Likely R to Lean R
#SCSen from Solid R to Likely R
cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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Jessica Taylor retweeted
Thune says he’s “hopeful” but “also realistic” about Republicans’ chances of retaining control of the Senate
“It’s a very competitive environment out there. A lot of tight races, many of them in the margin of error.”
But said R’s have set themselves up for success with candidate quality, a “compelling message,” fundraising & “a good ground game”
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Jessica Taylor retweeted
NEWS:
Here comes the crypto industry’s big spending against Democrats.
Fairshake is going to spend $30 million against Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s Senate race.
It’s payback after Senate Dems torpedoed the CLARITY Act.
nytimes.com/2026/09/21/us/po…
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Jessica Taylor retweeted
The number that should worry Trump the most: Americans say his policies have hurt rather than helped the economy, 26/55.
-29.
That’s worse Biden in Sep 2022 (-24).
And a stunning turn from this time in 2018, when Trump was 41/26, or net +15 and seen as *helping* the economy.
New @NBCNews poll
Trump approval: 41%
Generic ballot: 50% D, 45% R
On handling the economy, voters prefer Ds by 1 point. (In Oct 2018 they preferred Rs on the economy by 15 pts.)
30% say they’re more likely to vote for Trump endorsee; 52% less likely.
nbcnews.com/politics/2026-el…
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Jessica Taylor retweeted
This is going to be a really cool panel. We'll have someone from the left (@chuckrocha), someone from the right (@jackpandol) and a nonpartisan expert (@JessicaTaylor) talking about 2026 midterm elections with one of my faves @freedlander. Register now: youngamericanmen.com
On Day 2, we'll be discussing the fight for the male youth vote from both sides of the aisle. Register today or tune in via the livestream: youngamericanmen.com
@Freedlander @JackPandol @ChuckRocha @JessicaTaylor
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#AKGov moves again this week toward Democrats at @CookPolitical, from Lean R to Toss Up: cookpolitical.com/analysis/g…
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Jessica Taylor retweeted
Related: Cornyn says Republicans might be making a mistake by plowing too much money into Texas: “pouring another $100 million in Texas jeopardizes other races, and I think the most important thing in the end is that Republicans maintain the majority in the Senate.”
Cruz says without that money Paxton’s message will not get seen by enough voters, putting the seat at risk.
“I’m glad we’re investing money that is needed in the race because if the voters don’t know Talarico’s record and Paxton’s record, then we could easily lose it,” Cruz said. “And to communicate that takes money.”
New - Some Republicans say party needs to considering shifting strategy to have the best chance of keeping the Senate -- and move money from North Carolina and Georgia to more winnable races. Some see MI/OH/AK/IA/NH as more fertile
GOP senator: “These are always tough decisions, but it's a zero-sum game. It's important that resources are directed where there's a high probability of a winning outcome ... North Carolina and Georgia have consistently shown us behind. It's not an easy environment."
Sen. Cornyn says GA and NC “not looking good ... Georgia looks like it's pretty close to done. And North Carolina seems to be close to that. I'm still hopeful that something will change. But you know, at some point things get baked in"
Leader Thune says it's too early to bail on those races; he's going to Georgia soon to help Collins. But he said tough decisions are coming
“We'll have to obviously make decisions when it comes to resources about where we're going to invest the most ... it's all about keeping the majority and protecting the majority. So you know there are certain firewall states we just have to win"
Sen. Budd says the party needs to stay in NC and warns the state breaks late: "What you don't want is a self-fulfilling prophecy"
But Sen. Kennedy says Senate Leadership Fund and NRSC will pull money in a "nanosecond" if they think candidates can't win. Those decisions might not be for a couple weeks
Sen. Cramer on NC and GA: "Move on? Maybe. Obviously we have limited resources, and we want to put them where we’re likely to win. And it would really suck if we lose in Alaska, for example, where we aren’t spending the resources"
semafor.com/article/09/17/20…
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