NEW: Both Kyiv and Moscow are growing tired of Trump's bumbling envoy, the ever hapless Steve Witkoff. At the same time, Trump's faith in his friend seems resolute. With @TimZadorozhnyy for the @KyivIndependent. kyivindependent.com/exclusiv…

Our exclusive for the Kyiv Independent reveals that Atlant Aero LLC, a major supplier of UAVs to the Russian military, is not currently sanctioned by the British government. This is something my many British politician friends and followers could easily do something about…

Interesting perspective from a Ukrainian soldier, currently fighting in Donetsk, on Russian strikes on Kyiv and some of the hysterical press coverage they have received. Worth reading in full... "Just tonight, the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck targets in occupied Luhansk, the oil refinery in Perm, military factories in Ulyanovsk and Voronezh… A few days ago, certain results of the operation north of Lyman "Vivaldi" were announced. The Russians have been pushed back a bit. There are certain successes on other fronts as well. The Ukrainian army stands firm. The Ukrainian army is destroying Russians on the territory of Ukraine and on the territory of Russia. While many in Kyiv are whipping up (deliberately) panic— the Ukrainian army continues to press the Russians! I'm not saying everything is fine and we're winning, but we're definitely not losing! When you say that it will be horrific for you in Kyiv and other cities this winter, remember that it's horrific for Ukrainian soldiers year-round. Hot in summer, cold in winter. Drones and Russian infiltrations everywhere. I'm not calling on you to compete over who has it worse; I'm calling on you to hold the line—there in the rear! The disappearance of some usual services and comforts is not a catastrophe. These are temporary inconveniences. Russian occupation—that's where the catastrophe lies! Because the soldiers at war and most of you in the rear are enduring all this for the main, absolute, common goal—to hold out and preserve Ukraine's independence and the existence of our people. And our resilience depends on each and every one of you. It will definitely be easier for you this winter than for a soldier in Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka!"

Owen Jones, witlessly regurgiting Russian propaganda? I'm shocked.

You aren’t journalists, you are propagandists for despotic regimes and atrocity deniers, and the Labour Party has no compulsion to allow you in to play your little games.

I'd encourage everyone to read the Danish military intelligence assessment in full, and not rely on excitable social media upsums. Here is the top line: "The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) assesses that Russia will intensify its hybrid war by carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO, with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past. This could include destructive cyber attacks that cripple critical societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties." In other words, Russia will continue doing what it's already doing (terrorist attacks against hard and soft targets, cyberoperations), only more so. This is an uncontroversial assessment across Western intelligence services, so far as I've been able to determine. DDIS continues: "At the same time, there is a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia....Such a limited military attack could take the form of isolated strikes with long‑range weapons on infrastructure that is vital to the support to Ukraine. In this situation, Russia might then claim that the weapons only struck NATO territory because they were jammed by Ukraine. It could also be a so-called false flag operation, where Russia uses Ukrainian‑made drones to attack a NATO country." The scenario envisaged here (a low but growing risk) is a plausibly deniable conventional attack by Russia. The objective would be twofold. First, to sow panic and confusion in the targeted country or countries, and encourage skepticism of the official government version of what just happened. "Maybe it was the Ukrainians." "Maybe it was an accident." "Maybe no attack took place and the deep state is trying to foment World War III." Thirty seconds on this hellsite should be enough to convince you that counterfactual narratives would be easy enough to amplify, especially in countries with elections forthcoming. A "limited military attack" psychologically would just be a heightened form of "hybrid" war because it's designed to overwhelm and demoralize the population and make its think that supporting Ukraine just isn't worth it since those not at war are now liable to become collateral damage. The second objective of such an attack would be to gauge NATO's response to it -- and this is key bit, because, as DDIS also states: "Russia will likely carry out military attacks only if it assesses that such attacks will not result in a war by triggering a collective NATO military response. However, Russia is likely uncertain about what could trigger such a war. Consequently, there is a risk that Russia assesses that the NATO countries will not respond collectively, especially if Russia assesses that the United States cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a potential war against Russia." (Italics added.) You wouldn't be wrong to detect a hint of political messaging here. (All intel services deny they do any such thing but they all do.) This is Denmark, a country that just stared down a possible U.S. invasion and annexation of Greenland, which would have meant the disintegration of NATO. Trump has spent his entire second term (and much of his first term) doubting the Inviolability of Article V. His Pentagon has given NATO allies questionnaires to fill out to prove their worthiness as allies, while it undergoes a force posture review with ominous media leaks about what Bridge Colby and his minion might do (25,000 U.S. troops withdrawn, a scuppered U.S. base in Poland, etc.) Now comes a frenzy of intelligence reporting across Europe about a possible Russian attack on NATO, all kickstarted by a CIA briefing delivered to the Poles, Scandinavians and Balts months ago with a warning that they're probably on their own if and when such an attack happens. Never let a good crisis go to waste... Russia isn't sure what would trigger a war with NATO, so how might NATO make it sure? A "limited military attack" can be deterred if Washington telegraphs its intent to enforce Article V in word and deed by stating clearly and repeatedly what would constitute a casus belli in 2026 and, of course, by keeping U.S. troops in Europe.

Public humiliation would be a problem for most people, but not Glenn Greenwald.

Paris surrenders to Azerbaijani hostage diplomacy, throwing Ukraine under the bus in the process. Ugly, self-interested weakness from France.

Average afternoon in Kyiv; a Russian “Geran-5” jet-powered drone just flew directly over our heads, closely followed by a number of screaming FPV interceptors. Then explosions and AAA.

Albanese's entire world view is not based on any fundamental moral principles or ethical beliefs, but rather the overt dislike of a particular ethnic group.

Trump posted days ago that this wasn't going to happen as Russia had committed to refraining from attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. (Russia hasn't.) So either Kyiv has no fucks left to give or another message was conveyed offline. At all events, Zelensky today confirmed he's meeting Trump in New York this week on the margins of UNGA.

The “Pelican” is not Fire Point’s FP-7 short-range ballistic missile, which doesn’t have the range (up to a maximum of 200km) to get anywhere near Moscow.

Sunday morning in Moscow is suitably post-apocalyptic as another Ukrainian mass drone raid embarrasses Russian air defences

This is more Colby fuckery. A Hill source told me the 25K figure may be this extreme so that DoD can come back with a lower figure (say, 10K) and look as if they’re compromising. Colby’s briefing at SASC this week was “dire” (same source). But even this “consideration” makes the U.S. look even more laughable. Give NATO allies a questionnaire to prove their worthiness amid intel warnings that Russia might put boots on the ground sooner than later. Now let’s cut our forces in Europe by a third.