Bitcoin was built for exactly this.
January 2009: the first block carries a headline about a second bank bailout. 2020: up about 16x after the rescue. 2023: up 30% after SVB collapsed.
As the next financial crisis materializes, Bitcoin will be ready.
The stock market is now holding up the bond market.
The top 10% of earners do about half of all U.S. spending. That spending runs on their portfolios, and their gains fund the Treasury.
If stocks fall, the whole thing runs in reverse. Washington can't let that happen.
A rate hike cannot fix an oil shock.
Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti): this is push inflation - input costs rising from the Strait of Hormuz, not too much spending. The Fed can't fix that with rates. A hike only destroys demand, leads to recession, and then to more stimulus.
The 10-year just hit 5.1%, with oil back above $103.
TFTC episode 750.
The Bitcoin 4-year cycle just broke.
Every prior bear market fell 77% to 85% and lasted about a year. This one fell 52% in under 9 months.
A new buyer showed up under the price, and it doesn't trade the calendar.
Buy something online → merchants see your address, your balance, and every coin your change touches.
CoinJoin fixes this:
▪️ Full @WasabiWallet setup
▪️ Auto-mix to cold storage
▪️ Your own node
▪️ Private spending
Watch on @SOVsessions 👇
piped.video/iyWNgmKHkB8
Remember the people who said Bitcoin was going to $30k?
Or that Strategy and STRC was a "Ponzi" in a "death spiral"?
You can unfollow or block all of them now.
They've demonstrated their inability to think critically, and they will continue lying to you.
You're welcome 🫡
There it is.
Bitcoin closing above the 50-week moving average has historically had a 75% chance of marking the cycle low.
Apart from the COVID crash black swan, it has a 100% hit rate.
The bear is slain. Welcome (tentatively) to the bull market.
🟠 BTC CLOSES WEEK ABOVE 50-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FOR FIRST TIME IN 45 WEEKS
regaining the 50w MA has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are “in”
bitcoin is up 29% in 35 days
This is specifically referring to major cycles (4y/halving cycles) and not minor swings where the 50w reclaim failed.
If we include all swings, it still has a 67% hit rate (83% hit rate ex. COVID).
Bitcoin just crossed $80,000, two days after the Fed's first rate hike in 3 years.
Both times that Bitcoin experienced rate-hiking cycles, it bottomed while the Fed was still hiking, and then ran.
Rate hikes historically aren't that bad for Bitcoin.
And Bitcoin does not care.
Yields have been rising for months at this point. Restrictive monetary policy has already been priced in.
Expect some volatility when Warsh speaks, but not much else.
And Bitcoin does not care.
Yields have been rising for months at this point. Restrictive monetary policy has already been priced in.
Expect some volatility when Warsh speaks, but not much else.
BREAKING: The Federal Reserve officially hikes interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its first rate hike since July 2023.
This ends the longest Fed interest rate pause since 2008.
Six weeks ago, the odds of a September rate hike were basically zero. They're 93% now.
Bitcoin is higher today than it was back then.
It spent six weeks pricing in the most hostile thing that can happen to it and went up anyway.