Before AI kills us, can we at least have a few years with the sex bots who do laundry?

This is a good example of the power of free markets. Prediction market exchanges are not the only way for sports insurers to offload risk. They could go to specialty re-insurers. But they're expensive, opaque, and limited to large clients. They also often decide not to take on the risk, because they don't know how to price it or have limited warehousing capacity. Re-insurers operate Over-The-Counter (OTC): you ask for $3m of insurance on LSU winning and they quote you a price, but they don’t tell you why that’s the price, often because they don’t want you to know how much of that is embedded premiums that go straight to their pocket. On an exchange, the price is not set by any one counterparty, but through transparent price discovery by participants who compete on an open order book. The competition drives prices (premiums) down. The deeper the participation, the better the end-consumer prices. Our job as an exchange is to establish clear and fair rules that increase participation, foster competition, and promote liquidity. The difference is real: if the price of a hedge on Kalshi is 22% (22 cents on the dollar), the re-insurer would quote 22% + ~10% (premium) = ~30-35%. So for $3M of protection, you'd pay ~$660K on a liquid exchange with open price discovery and ~$1M with a re-insurer with closed and opaque price setting by one counterparty. The hedge is ~$300K cheaper on an exchange. The other critical benefit of using a standardized and fungible instrument traded on a liquid exchange is that you can actively manage your hedge and trade in and out of it at will at fair-market-value prices. This is because price discovery is continuous and your position gets marked-to-market in real-time. Exchange hedging is a better product and I expect it to progressively take market share from re-insurance.

1/ I'm a cardiologist. I've practiced for twenty-five years, through a lot of "breakthroughs" that turned out to be press releases. So understand the weight of what I'm about to say: I have never seen a single week in medicine like the one we just lived through. In the span of a few days, four separate scientific breakthroughs landed. The stock market treated them as four unrelated stories and sent a handful of biotech companies soaring. But that's the shallow read. Look closer and they are not four stories at all. They are four faces of the same story — the biggest shift in medicine since the discovery of antibiotics. Medicine is becoming programmable. Individualized. Written for one human being instead of the average of millions. Let me walk you through exactly what happened, in plain language, and show you where this is actually headed. Because the future arrived quietly this week, and most people scrolled right past it.

This: "The hard part isn't the code, it's knowing what you want."

Did you know that you can make webapps avoiding JavaScript altogether, having real Python running in your browser? And that it actually works well enough to use? Web does not have to be built on the sh*t it is built on!

Not forecasts. Not hot takes. Just careful observation.

🚨 Breaking: Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu: “I call on the Spanish government to show restraint and refrain from a disproportionate response. Only a two-state solution can bring a long-lasting peace to Spain and to the Moroccan population living in its occupied territories.” 🤣

Slack built a massive business by allowing you to organize your chats into Channels GMail organized your emails into conversations, saving your inbox and sanity Notion allows you to organize your Pages within Pages Telegram allows you to organize your chats within Folders Many such cases The best products give you the power to not only create information, but organize it. Your UX can be beautiful and your AI magical. But if users can't find what they created last week, your product is cooked. What other products have great organization?

Interesting. Sergey Korolev (the man behind Sputnik and Gagarin launch) used exactly the same principle for rockets

It's an easy thing to do to support Lefteris.

RT @mzeller: Now that you can read this, here's what changed over the past few months: @ambire is the best wallet, Rabby still great. @eth…

Guys, dolphins know how to get high. 🤷🏼‍♀️ And here is how. ​They use pufferfish. When a pufferfish gets threatened, it releases a potent neurotoxin. The dolphins figured out that if you bite the fish just gently enough, a tiny dose won't kill you, it just completely alters your perception. ​So they pass it around to their friends like a joint, taking turns for 20 minutes straight. Afterward, they just float near the surface, barely moving, staring off into nothing. ​Besides humans, they are the only animals known to intentionally seek out altered states just for the pleasure of it. Pure stoners of the sea.😏

Really, who could have possibly predicted this? finance.yahoo.com/markets/cr…

Seems like a decent idea. I wonder what you do with it when you get to the restaurant.

On July 4 2012 in San Diego, California, 7,000 fireworks accidentally went off all at the same time. What was supposed to be a 17 min show, lasted just 30 seconds, thanks to a computer glitch It is one of the greatest firework shows of all time Happy 250th birthday, America 🇺🇸

Elon Musk just put a price tag on obedience. It costs $200,000. Musk: “You don’t need college to learn stuff. Everything is available basically for free. You can learn anything you want for free.” Every lecture. Every textbook. Every framework ever written. Free on any screen in any country right now. The entire knowledge monopoly collapsed in a decade. Nobody updated the price tag. Musk: “Colleges are basically for fun and to prove you can do your chores. But they’re not for learning.” Strip the ivy and the branding. What’s underneath is a four-year obedience trial. Can this person follow instructions on a schedule without asking why. Musk: “There is a value that colleges have, which is seeing whether somebody can work hard at something, including a bunch of annoying homework assignments, and still do their homework assignments.” That is the entire six-figure value proposition. Not what you know. Not what you can build. Whether you can be managed. The establishment doesn’t need you educated. It needs you domesticated. Musk: “If you’re trying to do something exceptional, you must have evidence of exceptional ability. I don’t consider going to college evidence of exceptional ability.” The system doesn’t produce exceptional. It produces manageable. It takes the most creative years of your life and teaches you to wait for instructions. That is not education. That is containment. Musk: “Gates is a pretty smart guy, he dropped out. Jobs is pretty smart, he dropped out. Larry Ellison, smart guy, he dropped out.” They didn’t leave because they couldn’t keep up. They left because the ceiling was underground. 8 billion people now carry the same library in their pocket. The one these institutions charged a lifetime of debt to access. The only product the university still sells is the belief that you need one.

Crypto explained in 24 seconds.

Obvious trade: US Gov buys a few billion from Saylor & co who uses the process to repay his debt.

Brilliant! “Trump, the peacemaker.” - Jonathan Pie “Back to you, Sophie. Thank you. It's interesting, isn't it, that Trump signed this deal in Versailles, you know, the location of another famous humiliating, total capitulation. But you know, of course, Trump will spin this as a massive success because he's got form in declaring he's won when clearly he hasn't. But this war was a success in the same way that paying $14 million to have large chunks of blue paint floating in an algae-infested reflecting pool was money well spent. The truth is, the United States has rarely looked weaker, and Iran has rarely looked stronger, having now worked out that if anyone doesn't do exactly what they want them to, they'll just close the Strait of Hormuz, and they've got the whole world by the bullbags. We went from week one: "I will win. Victory will be easier than that time I kidnapped the president of Venezuela." To week two: "I won." To week three: "Why aren't you helping me win?" To week four: "I don't need your help to win, but if you don't help me win, I'm going to destroy NATO." Week five: "If you don't let me win, I'll annihilate an entire civilization." It's quite a feat to give the Iranian regime the moral high ground, but luckily, Donald Trump shattered the illusion of American morality a long time ago. Week six: "We're winning, and to prove it, here's an AI picture of me dressed as Jesus.” Week seven: "The Pope is a soy-filled, woke, Guardian reader." Week eight: "I'm getting bored now." Weeks nine through to 14: "Really bored now, and I've got ballrooms to build and cage fights on the White House lawn to organise." And four months later, victory! Thank you very much, where's my peace prize? And if the rest of the G7 can just clear up the mess and pay the bill, that would be great. The outcome was always inevitable, but you know, it's been fun to watch. Most of Trump's posts on Truth Social around the conflict have sounded less like the leader of the free world and more like a 14-year-old boy who's the only one left in the class not to have fingered anyone. One particular highlight being on Easter Sunday, when Trump went on to Truth Social to write, "Open the fucking strait, you crazy bastards." Which are the words of a true diplomat with supreme control of the situation. He then spent some time at the White House Easter Egg Roll, where he gave a speech to a bunch of bemused primary school children about how he's thinking of starting World War III in Iran and Joe Biden's auto-pen. But this conflict hasn't all been plain sailing. Trump got really angry with the UK, and Spain, and Canada, Australia, Italy—in fact, anyone who raised any objections to this gross example of imperial overreach was branded a coward. It was as if he felt like we should all be grateful that his latest piece of American expansionism didn't involve making Canada the 51st state or carpet bombing the sleepy village of Greenland. Perhaps if you want your allies to be good allies, then maybe start treating us like allies. Don't bully your allies, or slam illegal tariffs on your allies, or interfere with their elections by overtly promoting far-right parties across Europe whilst hurling insults at our leaders and threatening to invade Allied sovereign territory, and then demand we come to your aid just because you started a war because one, Benjamin Netanyahu told you to, and two, to distract from the fact that you appear in the Epstein files more times than Jesus is mentioned in the Bible. But at least someone did all right out of this whole thing. Well, for me, the highlight of the whole shit show was the $2.1 billion in bets placed minutes before presidential announcements about the war in Iran. 1/2

If you're curious as to how US IPOs actually work, or know someone who is, or if you spent some time on Wall Street and think you know it all, @rleshner 's podcast "The Pop" will be informative, helpful, and/or humbling. piped.video/VIWis6z2VPE?is=sFGp…