🩸 When can
$AAVE buybacks restart?
Five months after the rsETH bridge exploit they are still off. Here is the whole stack, in ETH, and what it means for the timing.
▸ THE HOLE
152,577 rsETH left the LayerZero lockbox on April 18. At the reference ratio that is 163,183 ETH.
▸ WHAT CAME BACK: 87,955 ETH
Kelp froze 40,373 rsETH, about 43,168 ETH.
The Arbitrum Security Council froze 30,766 ETH.
The hacker position on Aave liquidates for up to 12,323 WETH, the Compound one adds 1,845 WETH.
That leaves about 75,200 ETH to fund.
🎁 DONATIONS: 14,570 ETH
EtherFi, Lido, Ethena, Ink, BGD, Stani and others. A gift, nothing to repay.
🏛 FROM THE TREASURY: 25,000 ETH
Paid by the DAO itself. Not a loan either, just a hole in the balance sheet.
💳 THE LONG LOAN: up to 30,000 ETH
The Mantle credit facility. The Mantle governance puts it at up to 36 months at the Lido staking yield plus 1%. The Aave proposal left the terms to a later publication that never came.
⏳ THE SHORT LOANS: about 44,787 ETH
Easy to miss, and they come first in the queue. The coalition had to place the full 120,015 ETH into the lockbox up front, and that much of it was recoveries not yet liquid: the Arbitrum freeze and the two liquidations. A separate tranche of short duration loans from other partners bridges that window. Who lent it, and on what terms, was never published. Incoming recoveries repay those first, Mantle second.
📉 THE INCOME
Since April 29 the DAO has kept $24.0M of revenue in 144 days, about $167k a day. Gross fees over the same window were $181.2M. That revenue is 41% below the previous 144 days, when it was $40.5M.
🧮 THE ARITHMETIC
30,000 ETH at $2,639 is $79M. Every dollar of
@aave revenue pointed at it clears the facility in roughly 15.6 months. The April version of this post ran on $266k a day, where the same facility looked like ten months. The income halved, so the wait got longer, not shorter.
The last AAVE bought into the Aave treasury was on April 19.