Thread of threads: 1/ Prewar BTRZ count:

In its tactical map published on September 24, Russian Defense Ministry claims the encirclement of Ukrainian troops inside the town of Dobropilla located on the Donetsk front. So far there's no visual evidence to support this rather bold claim, and taking into account the long history of paper victories declared by the Russians that later turned out to be made up, it needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. You can also compare the RuMoD map with the current assessment of the situation in that sector of the frontline by DeepState (from September 23). Russian troops have been attempting to reach Dobropilla since at least August 2025, as the town sits at the junction of important roads, including the T0514 highway linking it to Kramatorsk, and is considered to be an important logistics and transport node on the southwestern approach to Ukraine’s "fortress belt" of Kostiantynivka–Druzhkivka–Kramatorsk–Sloviansk. Until now, the Russians haven't been able to consolidate their gains around that settlement.

Earlier this week, the @UAControlMap team ran a small scenario for the wider Owl community based on the standard Narva wargame scenario. Narva has been used for decades because the fundamental dilemma remains largely unchanged: an adversary creates a situation designed to fracture NATO by forcing member states to decide how, when and whether to respond. Unsurprisingly, our largely untrained participants struggled. Only a handful produced a credible Day 1 response that avoided creating a serious risk of NATO and EU division. But the more interesting point is that Narva is just a scenario. The same problem can be replicated across Europe in many places. What happens if it isn't Narva, with 50,000 people, but Grebnova, a Latvian village of just 10? Is your response the same? What if it isn't one village, but ten? Or twenty? A deliberately created chain of small "buffer zones" could present the same political dilemma without ever resembling a conventional invasion. If you enjoy investigating these scenarios for yourself, and seeing what you can actually find with open source intelligence, join the wider Owl OSINT community on Discord. There are plenty of people digging into these questions, sharing research and testing their assumptions. discord.gg/projectowl

I don't even know how to interpret what's going on in the Kremlin anymore. In over four years of war i've never seen more delusion than what's actually happening at the frontline today and what the russians are trying to present. If let's say last year you had 1-2 sectors with delusional maps, now it's basically the entire front. Last summer for example you had a flurry of "flag waving" which was "on credit" the way the russians were presenting it, but at least they were you know, there waving a flag. Now it's endless faked videos, with AI, with old videos from months ago or the new favorite, they simply show a village and claim they took it, with no soldier visible. I'm starting to believe more and more they have basically done a pact to keep Putin in a complete bubble of information and they are just feeding him bullshit, hoping that either Ukraine dies or he dies, i cannot otherwise explain what i'm seeing.

Russian Fuel Crisis II Update - 24 September 2026 🧵 Round 2 of the 2026 fuel crisis continues to deepen across Russia. We've introduced a 5th category, "Supply at or near collapse," and, to support red/blue color blind viewer, changed the no-shortages color to a pale green. 1/15

Daily Ukraine map thread for Thursday 24th September 2026 A look at the Zaporizhia / Dnipropetrovsk direction, where little has changed since the Air Assault Corps tore Russian positions apart in two broad swathes earlier this year. Yet one curious anomaly remains: a few Russian positions some 15 km behind the line have still not been cleared. At Svitla Dolyna, a solitary Russian soldier has raised the flag on the outskirts - presumably the same enterprising fellow seen at Zorivka and elsewhere, emerging from whatever cellar he has occupied until the coast appears clear. They're still communicating with their command, hence why the Russian drone is there for them for talk to, and yet the position still exists. The more dangerous Russian presence is the one that does not announce itself. Just men remaining concealed, communicating and waiting. The uncomfortable question is therefore not how many flags we can see, but how many Russians remain who have been careful enough not to raise one. Geolocations follow:

This remained largely undercover, but Russia 🇷🇺 is trying to isolate Ukraine 🇺🇦 from Romania 🇷🇴 and the southern part of Odessa oblast Russia is targeting border outposts, gas stations, bridges and ports in this "southern Bessarabia" region. 🧵THREAD🧵1/14 ⬇️

Inside Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi That Sees Its Troops Gaining Ground In The East Ukraine Situation Report: Ukrainian Colonel gives insights into how his forces have been slowly advancing on the eastern front. twz.com/news-features/inside…

BREAKING: French President Macron says there are "several indications" that Russia is preparing a new wave of mobilization, calling a scenario of 300,000 additional troops "credible."

According to our data @CITeam_en, in 2024-26 alone, and only in Kherson city itself, at least 402 civilians have been killed and another 4288 wounded. Around 60,000 people are still living in the city, which means nearly 8% of its population have been victims of russian attacks

Systemic lying about the battlefield situation by Russian commanders will only lead to bad outcomes for them.

We’re off, then. Full-scale war has returned to Ethiopia.

TPLF forces have seized control of an airport in Mekelle, the capital of Ethiopia’s Tigray region, according to sources cited by AFP. The takeover comes after seven Ethiopian militias—including the TPLF—formed an alliance aimed at overthrowing the current government.

Ukraine : pourquoi les blindés russes deviennent-ils plus difficiles à détruire ? Le commandant du corps ukrainien Azov, Denys Prokopenko, avertit que les chars russes sont désormais plus difficiles à neutraliser. Cette évolution ne repose pas sur un nouveau blindage révolutionnaire, mais sur l’accumulation de protections complémentaires et sur une meilleure coordination tactique. Les véhicules reçoivent davantage de blindage réactif explosif, notamment sur les flancs et les parties autrefois moins protégées. Les premières « cages » artisanales sont également remplacées par des structures mieux conçues, parfois installées directement en usine. Leur fonction est de provoquer l’explosion des charges creuses transportées par les drones FPV avant qu’elles n’atteignent le blindage principal. Certains chars sont aussi équipés du système de protection active Arena-M. Celui-ci détecte la menace et lance une contre-munition afin d’intercepter les roquettes, les missiles antichars et certains drones. Après les premiers retours du front, la Russie envisagerait de porter le nombre de ses effecteurs de 12 à 36. Des dispositifs mécaniques ou électromagnétiques de déminage complètent cette protection en déclenchant les mines avant le passage du véhicule. Mais l’évolution la plus importante est tactique. L’infanterie russe cherche à s’infiltrer jusqu’aux positions des opérateurs ukrainiens de drones, tandis que l’artillerie frappe leurs zones de lancement. Les blindés peuvent ensuite être engagés en plusieurs vagues : la première force les défenseurs à consommer leurs drones et leurs munitions antichars, la suivante tente d’exploiter leur épuisement. Lors d’un affrontement, une unité ukrainienne aurait ainsi employé près de 125 drones FPV pour arrêter seulement deux ou trois chars russes. Ce chiffre illustre les limites d’une défense reposant principalement sur ces appareils : tous n’atteignent pas leur cible, les brouillages et les protections réduisent leur efficacité, tandis que les stocks doivent être rapidement reconstitués. Le char russe n’est donc pas devenu invulnérable. Il faut simplement davantage de drones, des attaques successives ou des armes antichars plus puissantes pour obtenir le même résultat. L’idée selon laquelle les drones auraient rendu les blindés obsolètes apparaît une nouvelle fois prématurée : la Russie apprend de ses pertes et transforme progressivement ces enseignements en solutions produites en série. defence24.pl/wojna-na-ukrain…

This shows the reality of Gaza in shocking resolution. I've scraped and exported all the imagery, totalling around 2.5 billion pixels at 13cm resolution, for safe keeping, in case they decide to take this imagery offline. If this happens, keep an eye out for access.

People comparing the current situation to the 2021-2022 build-up doesn't seem to realize that back then we had plain, objective evidence of things moving south in form of satellite imagery and new, geolocatable clips of Russian military columns every day. Right now we only have written media coverage, speculations and mixed signals via some intelligence reports.

BREAKING: The U.S. is now directly posturing for a large-scale attack, with intense Air Force activity across the Middle East and particularly near southern Iran. At least seven U.S. aerial refueling tankers are operating over the Persian Gulf, while an MQ-4C Triton conducted a reconnaissance flight just hours ago. Iranian media is also reporting unidentified fighter jets over Bandar Abbas, though the claim has not been independently verified. The activity comes directly after Iran’s Central Military Command warned it had intelligence indicating possible renewed U.S. strikes and threatened retaliation against American bases and interests across the region. Tankers are surging. Reconnaissance aircraft are active. Unknown jets are reportedly over southern Iran. Tehran is warning of an attack.

Earlier this month, ballistic missile strikes disabled Ukraine’s three major remaining steel plants in the industrial heartlands of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, killing 17 workers and threatening an industry that helped drive the country’s growth for decades after independence. “As of today, [Ukraine] doesn’t have a steel industry any more,” Oleksandr Vodoviz, head of the chief executive’s office at Metinvest. @fabrice_deprez on Russia's strikes against Ukraine's economy: ft.com/content/0ecc81ad-2119…

Esta declaración es oro puro. Lukashenko 🇧🇾 admite que si hubiera dimitido tras perder las elecciones en 2020, Rusia 🇷🇺 habría invadido Bielorrusia 🇧🇾 de la misma forma que a Ucrania 🇺🇦.