While I'm just as bad as everyone else at forecasting prices, I don't think there needs to be a post 10/10 zombie trading firm or FTX-like situation out there to explain coin prices falling while other assets rally.
A simpler explanation is that crypto is going through a painful adolescence where the value destruction of bad ideas has become too great to ignore but the value creation of good ideas has yet to materialize.
Here's a list of both, starting with the bad ideas:
Memecoins: Memes were a mass extraction event. If you add up the money taken out by industrial farmers, MEV sandwiches, KOLs waxing poetic about a new asset class while secretly leading pump and dump schemes, and platform fees & gas fees, you end up with a casino that has an insanely high take rate.
Back when the mob ran traditional gambling, it understood that you can't rig the odds too badly. The memecoin industrial complex didn't, and bled its customers dry. Now there are no players left.
DATs: This was a mass exit event. Beyond a few majors, most of them bought "locked" tokens. This was a step-function increase in the supply of that token. Whatever the market thought was the supply had to be adjusted higher.
Once the "lock" sham was exposed, markets then had to discount all remaining "locked" tokens as for sale.
Also, the bankers, lawyers, and insider grifters launching these DATs all had to get paid somehow. As will the lawyers who will soon sue many into oblivion.
Lastly, even the BTC and ETH DATs are now more liable to sell than to buy. There is no free lunch.
High FDV/Low Float: The vast majority of new tokens launched over the past 5 years designed their process to maximize insider and early investor profit, as opposed to long-term success or value accrual.
They succeeded.
Raising too much has always had a high failure rate in crypto. What changed over the past year is that the industry ran out of suckers to convince otherwise.
Bad equity/foundation/DAO models: This one is playing out before our eyes. Whatever the motivation, it has spooked token investors, and rightly so.
Ecosystem Funds: Slush funds with little transparency and zero accountability.
BizDev: It almost never works, but everyone keeps doing it, just so they can get CT brownie points for announcing some clueless TradFi/Web2 firm "chose" that chain.
Corpo Chains: Tokens issued by permissioned (or fully DINO) networks are worthless.
Politics: If you align yourself too closely with one side, it's logical for prices too fall when its fortunes wane.
...
I am quite optimistic that the next few years will see many of these practices cleaned up. To quote a late old friend, the one thing everyone responds to is pain, and there's now plenty of it across the board.
As that happens, adoption will also grow, and lead to value creation. Some areas I'm excited about:
Non-sovereign money: I never loved "digital gold" analogy for Bitcoin because it undersells what makes it unique and special. As the world continues to polarize and fracture, demand for an apolitical money that rides its own censorship-resistant platform will grow.
Neutral settlement layer: Many of the worlds most valuable corporations operate centralized networks. All of them are enshettifying themselves to death. As they do, users, assets, and entrepreneurs will eventually find their way to the one platform that won't screw them.
Markets will then orient themselves around that platforms native coin, the greatest HQLA asset ever invented.
Stablecoins/RWAs: Self-explanatory
DeFi: It's just better-FI, as measured by the ideals that have defined the evolution of financial services for centuries: fairness, transparency, guaranteed outcomes, minimized settlement and counterparty risk.
Better FI will eventually attract most of the asset and investors.
NFTs/Digital Art & Collectibles: The idea was always good, but the execution terrible. The generation that grew up online will make it work for them.
Privacy: The world is slowly realizing how badly it has become compromised. The industry built on cryptography is the most likely place it will find solutions.
Scarcity: AI creates over-abundance, crypto will reestablish a balance.
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The value creation of these benefits will take years to play out, and there's no guarantees any one coin will benefit. But I'm confident those who stay the course and stay humble will benefit.