I know you guys are starving for a kaspa:native update, so here it is :)
This one will be a bit more detailed, hope you enjoy.
In the last update I said that kaspa:native needed to break the resistance trendline and print a BOS to confirm the bullish structure we had already started anticipating after the earlier ChoCh.
And it did.
We got a daily close:
above the resistance trendline ☑️
above the 4 cent supply ☑️
above the former Swing High, confirming BOS ☑️
above the most relevant HTF Swing High ☑️
That gives us a much clearer HTF bullish structure after a prolonged period of sideways price action / accumulation and adds further evidence to the idea that the bottom may be in.
After the breakout, kaspa:native continued rallying toward 4.5ct before rejecting for now.
The rejection itself is not particularly surprising: two 7D HOBs were sitting in that area and have acted as resistance to the move so far.
Price could still push somewhat higher, but from my perspective a retracement becomes increasingly likely either from here or, at the latest, around the 2D supply + 1D HOB sitting slightly above around 4.7ct.
So this is probably not the area where I would want to chase the move with FOMO buys.
Regarding the potential path from here:
As long as kaspa:native does not close below the most recent major Swing Low at 3.17ct, the HTF structure remains bullish, and continuation after a retracement remains the scenario I am primarily watching.
The more interesting question is therefore:
Where could that retracement end?
If we assume the rejection has already started from the two 7D HOBs, the technically most interesting areas for me are:
- the 0.705 Fib, which aligns with a 1D HOB, although I would consider that level somewhat weaker because the HOB has already been mitigated by roughly 50%
- the EQ of the 3D Demand around 3.4ct, which sits below and would represent the deeper retracement scenario
So overall:
HTF structure looks good
At the same time, after the recent rally into higher-timeframe resistance, I would much rather see a healthy retracement into support than chase price up here.
The important part now is watching how price behaves once it reaches those areas.