To elaborate on my interview last week on @BloombergTV, as well as my response to @elonmusk, a thread. Restrictive policy rates have succeeded in slowing the rate-sensitive segments of the U.S. economy (including goods inflation), but a >5% Fed Funds rate is not doing much to slow the insensitive, services-oriented segments. In fact, given the unique historical context, we believe >5% cash rates are doing unnecessary damage to certain cohorts today and may even be supporting services inflation. 1/13

Today, @mjmauboussin published an amazing paper on Capital Allocation, and it's a gold mine. Let's take a look at the 15 best charts 🧵 "IT & healthcare went from ~20% of S&P 500 in 1985 to >40% in 2021. Over the same time, energy, materials & industrials went from 34 to 13%":

(Academic) economists no longer obsess over the balance of payments. And talk of global imbalances is now considered a bit stale. That is a shame, because imbalances have actually exploded in the last few months, in an interesting way. 1/x

Over the years we have identified five countries that tend to over-invest in residential property at the end of the global business cycle. Housing markets in the ASR CANNS (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden) are now imploding at close to record pace...

Actual risk is almost as high as the Volcker peak

What I learned at IMF/WB meetings 1. No consensus on monetary policy. Most policy makers want to keep hiking aggressively, most market participants want central banks to slow. Best quote I heard: "When I drive into fog, I slow down." There's massive global uncertainty. Slow down!

how my journey into Solana NFTs has gone so far.

This discussion between a Google engineer and their conversational AI model helped cause the engineer to believe the AI is becoming sentient, kick up an internal shitstorm and get suspended from his job. And it is absolutely insane. washingtonpost.com/technolog…

Residential Investment as a % of GDP ticks higher! 🤦‍♂️

In a flash, Judy Allen, 75, had $1.5M in mortgages on her bungalow, and she faces ‘financial ruin.’ We asked Tony the Contractor and Harold the Jewellery Buyer, how did this happen? thestar.com/news/investigati… via @torontostar

UK PM johnsons says "if russia invades its neighbor...we will open up the matryoshka dolls of russian-owned companies and russian-owned entities, to define the ultimate beneficiaries within, [and sanction them]." now that would be something.

💨👑

THAT'S WHY YOU DRAFT A KICKER!

RT @nic_carter: we're at the point where the government is teaming up with ripple to create paid opposition research on Bitcoin mining htt…

And this person is not doing jail time why exactly? This is such a disgrace.

Weidmann's parting shot as Bundesbank president is aimed at the man who haunts him to his day. #ECB #Draghi

Many Ontarians now associate lockdowns with successful control of a virus. Many see getting sick with Covid as a moral failure. Many are willing to donate precious years of their lives to the cause. The mass psychosis must be treated. Individual risk analysis must be taught.

It’s 2-for-1 day so Vote #FredVanVleet to be an #NBAAllStar

Seems unthinkable rn, but wouldn't be surprised if the 2021 inflation scare rapidly became a 2022 recession scare. ("Scare" because the chance of a genuine recession seems pretty low)

Hospital capacity is a real concern. But no parent in Ontario should accept it when someone whose actual job is to protect the hospitals tries to flip it around on them and tell them that it’s in fact the job of their children to protect the hospitals. torontosun.com/opinion/colum…