Some more intel on the debate over an early election in this morning's @Telegraph: Several Downing Street advisers are now in favour of going to the country in the spring. Those of that view think that Andy Burnham's team is governing with "one hand tied behind our back" because of the constraints of the 2024 manifesto. A source says there are "lots of things Andy would want to include in a manifesto that he wouldn’t be able to do at the minute". They could include changes to the fiscal rules or red lines on EU membership. But there is a big caveat. Even those in favour of an election (and there is a "diverse opinion" on this issue) think there are several conditions that must be met. First, the public must see an improving economy and a correspondingly positive OBR forecast in this Budget and next year's Spring Statement. To get there, Burnham needs an improvement in energy costs, which is largely reliant on the war in the Middle East he has no control over. Second, he needs his current bounce in the polls to be sustained, and for Reform UK to continue its current run of own goals. The latest MRP polls have "enthused" those who want an early election, but advisers are aware the polls can change very quickly. Third, Burnham's team think that they could only justify an election if their plans within the constraints of the current manifesto are perceived to be working. That means the fiscal devolution and "breathing space" policies need to have cut through to the public in six months' time, and Burnham must be given credit for them. Even then, there are many people around Burnham who think an election would be a mistake, Labour would lose 100+ seats and could the same way of Theresa May's ill-fated 2017 election campaign. On the current numbers, Labour would need parties to stay in power, so the SNP and Lib Dems are already thinking about what they would demand as the price of their support. Sources close to John Swinney want permission to call an independence referendum. The Lib Dems have not yet worked out what they would demand. The official line from No10 is that Burnham has ruled out an election and that is not going to change. His team cannot say anything else until the day an election is called. No10 source: "One person in Downing Street makes the decision and he has ruled out an early election." More here w/@tweetsbyames & @simon_telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/politics/202…

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"There is a border poll reality which has to be faced. If Britain wants one and Ireland doesn’t, there won’t be one. If Ireland wants it and Britain doesn’t, there won’t be one." Read Alex Kane: tinyurl.com/mp72ej29