Associate Professor of Political Science @VCU. Senior Fellow @CIPolicy. Assoc Fellow @IPS_DC. Fmr LatAm advisor @BernieSanders. 교포 mpaarlberg.bsky.social
RVA & DC
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Despite Trump's professed willingness to put boots on the ground in Venezuela, he doesn't want an open-ended occupation required for an Iraq-style de-Baathification (de-chavistication?) of the Vz government. Thus the FANB has veto power in any future transition, I tell @BBCNews
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Michael Paarlberg retweeted
This rule is dumb. OPT lets top talent trained at American universities stay, work, and possibly get hired by an American company. Without it, that talent leaves.
A $70K fee would gut the program. The Trump administration is shooting itself in the foot.
New OPT rule:
$70,000 for OPT
$30,000 for STEP OPT
It assumes demand drops by 44%, which is an arbitrary and incredibly optimistic scenario. There is no indication that universities will pay this, demand will drop 99%.
This is bad for innovation, and will cost taxpayers.
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You really don’t need to reach into Soviet history to understand US meddling in Latin America.
Historian Tim Snyder compares what Trump is doing in Latin America to Soviet tactics in Eastern Europe after WWII: rig elections, apply threats, install the leadership you want.
His description of Trump’s approach: “smash and grab.”
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It’s funny how the chavistas have turned out to be far more ideologically flexible, and the opposition far more ideologically rigid. But this is largely a matter of being in power vs. out of power.
Venezuela's hardline opposition influencers turn every difference into a loyalty test. Express any doubt that Trump enthusiastically backs Machado, and you're called a chavista. Treating every disagreement as an act of treason is no way to rebuild a fractured nation.
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If Arab diaspora churches are like Korean diaspora churches, I bet they have so much beef with the second Arabic-speaking Lutheran parish on Staten Island
On Sunday, I was honored to visit Our Lady Salam, the first Arabic-speaking Lutheran parish on Staten Island.
Its congregants hail from as close as Hylan Boulevard to as far as Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt — yet have planted roots in our city. Many carry the weight of war and genocide daily.
Our Lady Salam is a parish defined by resilience, and New York City is better for it.
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This is an absurd lie. Publicly warning militaries and mafia figures not to overturn democratic elections is not “influencing politics to the left” nor is it particularly covert. It’s also in US interests given they receive direct aid, trade preferences, and loans from the US.
Overshadowed by Gaza of course but under Joe Biden we had really did have the Woke CIA trying to influence South American politics toward the left.
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The US is a signatory to the Convention Against Torture. It was signed by Reagan and ratified and enacted into the Foreign Affairs Reform and Restructuring Act, which prohibits refoulement, meaning this is illegal under US law.
NEW: The U.S. deported a torture survivor back to Nicaragua, where he was immediately jailed again.
latimes.com/world-nation/sto…
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One of the stupidest academic practices is hiring for new specialties, instead of continuing to train in core disciplines people who can think about anything.
Half of the new assistant professor job postings in the social sciences are looking for someone who researches AI. Sending the message that, to even have a shot at landing a TT job, you have to have correctly predicted what will be hot 5-7 years from when you started grad school.
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"We're not as corrupt as our opponents" is not a winning message for center-left parties, even if it's technically true!
Brazilians went to the polls on Sunday with Flavio Bolsonaro just a stone's throw away from the presidency.
@unherd, I cover the Epstein-like scandal weighing down on both campaigns and especially Brazil’s Supreme Court.
unherd.com/2026/10/the-epste…
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Michael Paarlberg retweeted
En este contexto de crisis en Bolivia, comparto esto que escribi hace unas semanas con un balance de la implosión del MAS y algunas notas sobre el giro a la derecha y la situación actual
The Irresistible Rise and Fall of Evo Morales share.google/71o8hKfOWfIVuSH…
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Half of the new assistant professor job postings in the social sciences are looking for someone who researches AI. Sending the message that, to even have a shot at landing a TT job, you have to have correctly predicted what will be hot 5-7 years from when you started grad school.
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Michael Paarlberg retweeted
The list of US actions interfering in #Brazil's elections goes on & on
-Trump meets w/ Bolsonaro family members
-Trump places Brazilian gangs on terror list
-US places tariffs on Brazil
-Digital online campaigns
-Etc
My latest @TheRealNews @PAdispatch therealnews.com/trump-brazil…
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Important point for anyone using AI tools to apply for jobs or fellowships: The purpose of an application is to stand out from other applicants. The purpose of AI is to reflect the broadest data pool; to be generic. You’re not being unique or memorable. You’re being the opposite.
My inbox is being flooded with fully AI-generated emails from prospective students. I tried to work out why I can't bring myself to read them, and ended up with some thoughts and advice for writing cold emails in the age of AI.
My new post:
blekhman.substack.com/p/why-…
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China is already the top trade partner for most of S. America. But polls show, despite our imperialist legacy, most people throughout Latin America feel closer to the US than to China, and don't like how China does business. It's really an own goal by Trump to get to this point.
Geopolitics may not be in the mind of Brazilian voters tomorrow. But the US-China rivalry will quietly loom over the election 🇺🇸🇧🇷🇨🇳
And in many ways, the US has already lost much of its strategic influence in Brazil to China 🧵@opinion
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As Brazil votes in the first round election today, it's striking how no amount of scandal or controversy - not the sports betting ban, Moraes probe, or Santini sex parties - is changing voters' minds, if the polls are accurate. The October surprise is that no one is surprised.
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Michael Paarlberg retweeted
Trump has ramped up US interference in Brazil ahead of the election this Sunday. Here are just a few of the things his administration is doing to try and weaken Lula:
• Designated Brazilian crime groups as terrorist organizations, partially under the justification of combatting “narcoterrorism” in the region
• Tried to send State Department officials to Brazil to help, according to Brazilian officials, discredit the integrity of its electoral system
• Threatened new sanctions against Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes
• Imposed high tariffs on Brazilian imports
• Attacked Pix, Brazil’s popular payment transfer system that bypasses credit card company fees
• Threatened Brazil with “military might”
• The U.S. Consulate in São Paulo held a private roundtable with pro-Bolsonaro social media influencers
• The State Department has plans to award $1 million to groups in Brazil that oppose “judicial overreach and censorship” by Brazil’s Supreme Court
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Michael Paarlberg retweeted
Behind slogans declaring a "safe" El Salvador lies a harrowing reality of mass detentions and forced disappearances. Sonja Wolf details the state of emergency in the latest Current History: online.ucpress.edu/currenthi…
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Michael Paarlberg retweeted
1/8 🧵 New paper with @IsabelLaterzo, now out open access in the British Journal of Political Science: The Legacy of Mexico’s Drug War on Youth Political Attitudes
How does growing up amid criminal violence and militarized security shape political attitudes later in life?
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Mamdani is the progenitor of the 'American Muslim race.'
I have a theory that American Muslims will undergo ethnogensis and produced a vaguely Brown, Arab-Desi mixed ethnicity.
I think Zohran already proved my prediction right. When speaking about his ethnicity, Mamdani is just Muslim, no one calls him Arab or Ugandan. Even the anti-Indian right wingers don't mention that he's Indian.
The only relevant part of Zohran's race is Islam. He's racially Muslim. This is the future for all Muslim Americans.
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Michael Paarlberg retweeted
Este año no pudimos cantarle un Happy Birthday a Ruth @Ruth_Lopez1977, que lleva casi 500 días de detención arbitraria.
Ruth, te recordamos siempre y seguimos luchando por tu liberación.
Así le cantaron refugiados sirios en Irak el año pasado:
Refugiados de Siria —que saben, en carne propia, lo que es vivir en dictadura— le cantan un happy birthday en árabe, eid milad saeid, a nuestra compatriota, @Ruth_Lopez1977.
¡Feliz Cumpleaños, Ruth!
Un abrazo en la distancia.
@LibertadxRuth
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Michael Paarlberg retweeted
At the UN, Trump calls cartels “the ISIS of the Western Hemisphere.” Exactly what @MPaarlberg and I warned of: the war on terror framework turns criminal suspects into military targets, replacing due process with execution.
commondreams.org/opinion/wha…
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