Simulating $MSTR performance against Bitcoin 馃煚鈿★笍| Not affiliated with Strategy Inc. Not financial advice. Do your own research. Educational purposes only.

Fuck the bears. Fuck the critics. I am aggressively buying Strategy #MSTR over the next 6 months. I have 3 reasons why. 1) It is officially stack season. We've entered the bottom crescendo of Bitcoin's 4-year bear market. Last cycle, stacking BTC from June to November 2022 was one of my best decisions ever. This cycle, I plan to repeat that success with MSTR: the stock for more volatile, intelligently levered Bitcoin exposure. From bottom (Dec 2022) to top (Nov 2024), MSTR rose 33.4X last cycle. No two cycles are the same, and nobody times the market perfectly. But the chance to catch even a fraction of that wave again is far too appetizing, and it begins now. 2) Strategy's EV mNAV has fallen to 1.0. That means the stock is now valued for the same bitcoin and cash that the company *already owns*, including all debts and preferred stock claims. It's valued at ZERO projected future earnings. This is completely irrational and an obvious buy. When bitcoin rises, Strategy's liabilities will shrink proportionally to its assets, and MSTR will rise even faster than BTC. All we have to do is wait. 3) The Saylor FUD is out of control. You're all suffering PTSD from the last bear market. You assume there has to be a huge theatrical crypto blowup, and that it's destined to be Strategy this cycle. This is lunacy. Strategy is publicly audited, extraordinarily transparent, and remarkably simple as a business. They invest in Bitcoin. They buy more of it with intelligent leverage. No term risk, no margin calls. The Bitcoin appreciates faster than the interest accumulates. Strategy's founder survived as CEO for over 20 years, and is one of the most intelligent and principled voices Bitcoin has ever had. He's proven himself to our community for half a decade now. I'm not buying some sensationalist FUD that he's chosen now to go corrupt or insane. For those who think this, I will gladly buy your cheap MSTR from you at this time. This is my basic case on this topic. The next two years are gonna be incredible.
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Strategy is moving to 365-day-per-year daily dividends because it makes the product as objectively superior and clean as it can possibly be. Yes, it was their competitor Strive's idea. Yes, it was a good idea. Sadly, Saylor is a competitive asshole and will gladly steal the same idea on a whim and do it better at a scale 20X the size. It really is that easy. The winner eats everybody.
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It was only a matter of time. Daily dividends for $STRC.
Strategy is proposing daily dividends on $STRF, $STRC, $STRK, and $STRD, accruing every calendar day, including weekends and holidays, and paid the next business day, with economics unchanged. The proposed changes aim to support price stability, liquidity, and demand.
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This year's "bear market" is on track to recreate the paradox of the 2025 "bull market." Bitcoin topped in 2025 as expected, but ultimately closed the year RED.馃敶 Bitcoin bottomed out in 2026, as expected. But if it clears $87,400, it will close the year GREEN.馃煝
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STRC blows through $99 tomorrow.
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ASST has already had an insane run and requires a breather. Its CEBE mNAV is 2.07x. On MSTR, mNAV is still just 1.22x. It's the big boy's turn to run now.
Bitcoin is up big today. This doesn't make sense. What is going on with $ASST?
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Welcome 鈧縜ck. $MSTR
Replying to @benjamincowen
Welcome 鈧縜ck.
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There is no doubt anymore. The MSTR bull run is back underway. Congrats to everyone who secured a heavy position at sub-$100 and 1.00 mNAV early this summer. Your future selves will thank you. Anyone with a level head who understood the stock knew that the hysteria surrounding Strategy was grossly exaggerated, and that $MSTR 's aggressive recovery was a matter of *when*, not *if*. The last piece to really send this stock roaring is for $STRC to return to par, reigniting Strategy's BTC accumulation engine. Since June, we've already surged from $71 back to $98.81 at writing time. We're less than $1.50 away. We're in the "home stretch." I'm sorry MSTR bears. I'm sorry STRC bears. I hope you understand now that this was all just a matter of time. I pray you aren't waiting for October.
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Muahahahahaha $MSTR
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Very important insight from Strive CEO @ColeMacro. When they say most of $SATA's investors are "retail," they're specifically talking about high-net-worth investors (HNWIs). People with at least a million dollars to invest. The same probably applies to $STRC.
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We're at a point where bad news just doesn't push bitcoin down anymore. Sellers are exhausted. I believe the bottom is in.
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The public reaction to STRC getting back to par is like watching the public reaction to BTC's maturation, but at 10X speed. On days it dumps, pessimists concoct a billion reasons why it's not working, it's a failed product, and Strategy fundamentally needs to pivot course. What pessimists ignore is that, through the volatility, it keeps registering higher highs and higher lows. It pumped to $89 - then dumped and chopped. It pumped to $96 - then dumped and chopped. It pumped to $98 - then dumped and chopped. It pumped to $99 - then dumped and chopped. What do you think happens next?
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STRC pumps on the open again after another giant, nonsensical, over-FUDed late-day flush. Imagine my shock. 馃槀 We're going back to par.
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About two years ago, Saylor invited bitcoin bears to short his stock. "If you really hate bitcoin, I want you to love us."
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It's February 2028. BTC is chopping/retesting its $126k top. Strategy has 1,000,000 Bitcoin. They've sold another $16B of STRC. Headlines everywhere. Retail is turning its head. Speculation is booming. mNAV explodes to 3X. MSTR price: $642.
Replying to @MSTR_simulator
@grok what would $MSTR price be with a 3 mNAV and a BTC price of $126,000 if their BTC stack increases to 1 million?
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Strategy has a new tool to efficiently compound BTC per share this cycle. It's called STRC. It will generally be prioritized over selling MSTR. If MSTR isn't being sold as often, that means the issuer won't be providing a primary source of price pressure on the common, as existed last cycle. Something to consider. We don't quite know how high mNAV could go when it has more room to breathe.
The next phase of $MSTR will be won on capital efficiency, not Bitcoin accumulation. In other words, how efficiently can management compound Bitcoin Per Share over time from every capital allocation decision it makes. That is the real competition now.
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STRC almost always sells off extremely hard right before the close. Then it opens far higher the following day, as if nothing happened. This morning is no exception. It's kind of amusing. Does anybody know why this is the case?
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To everybody freaking out about STRC right now... 1) Ex-div date was yesterday 2) Clarity Act failure was yesterday 3) Expected rate hike is today All these forces are weighing against BTC and $STRC. All short-term noise. We'll bounce back hard and fast.
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Michael Saylor expects Bitcoin to outperform equities indefinitely - even after BTC matures to a $100T market cap. "If you're expecting 12% from the S&P, you'll probably get 18% from bitcoin - 20 years out." "Right now, it's a small asset, so it's gonna grow faster."
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For MSTR to reclaim its $543 all-time high... BTC price: $126,000 (prev ATH) mNAV: 2.6X Last time MSTR hit $543, BTC price was $96,000, and mNAV was 5.0X.
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STRC buybacks are required for days like today. People buy $STRC for promised stability, but traders and speculators can harm that stability and hurt STRC confidence. Buybacks are a blunt tool to crush near-term shorts and prevent volatility when BTC merely hiccups. When STRC stability is forced into place, the natural liquidity and demand at $100 will follow. Just wait.
Buybacks might get $STRC back to par, but it is not healthy for Strategy to be nearly 20% of the market in its own security to maintain price support. I'm also not a fan of $MSTR continuing to de-amplify. I would rather see them increase rates in a bid to increase amplification.
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