We haven't "surged past 50%". We've crept past 45%.
Over last three years, we've added just 2.7% per year.
At current rates, we won't hit 50% for nearly two years, possibly after the next federal election.
So I can't let this slide.
One of my jobs as an energy researcher is battling misinformation, which distorts public debate, and presenting true facts in context.
See below my letter to the dedicated energy reporter at
@australian, Colin Packham, asking for this '50%' howler to be corrected.
Sadly Colin has already indicated to me he's to busy to update today, and that he was actually aware that his 50% number was the peak of a seasonal, fluctuating quarterly number, not a sustainable annual average.
So please share and comment widely enough to make sure those in charge of our major newspapers realise that this kind of misinformation is unacceptable, and needs to be called out.
Dear Colin,
I'd like to request a correction to factually inaccurate and misleading headlines and content in today's Australian in the "Energy Nation" feature:
"Renewables push past 50pc but next phase proves harder"
"Renewables surge past 50pc but the next phase proving harder"
As well as further incorrect claims in your article:
"Renewable energy has breached 50% of electricity generation in the national market, a significant advance on a year ago and a major step towards Labor's target of 82%"
"Australia's 50 per cent renewable milestone therefore comes at an awkward moment."
This claim is misleading, and factually unsubstantiated. If this was a claim made by any person of public note at Energy Nation Forum, please let me know, and I will pursue a correction and acknowledgement of the mistake from whichever organisation that person belongs to. But if it is your own (as I can find no attribution in your writing, so I assume that it is) I would kindly request a correction published in The Australian, proportionate to the prominence afforded to this article associated headlines.
The source of your confusion might possibly be from headlines published by AEMO claiming more than half was generated from renewables in a single quarter (Q4 2025), which I link below. The highest quarterly number that can be attributed to an authoritative source is 50.1%, see page 22 of the Quarterly Energy Dynamics report, also linked.
However, if you inspect other such quarterly reports prior to or after that one, you'll realise that this is an outlier due to seasonal fluctuation. The 4th Quarter consistently achieves some of the highest renewable share, and a 50% share has never been sustained over 12 months. A convenient means of viewing these statistics, derived from AEMO data, is to use the tracking tool in the
OpenElectricity.org.au website, where you'll find that the quarters prior to and since that single quarter range from the high 30s (eg Q2 2025 at 37.4%) through to the high 40s (eg Q1 2026 at 46.1%).
Given the very large seasonal fluctuation that is expected between quarters, the proper basis for assessing milestones for renewable energy penetration must include 12 sequential months. Assessed again using OpenElectricity, this could be the last calendar year at 43%, the last financial year at 44.9%, or the last 365 days up to 23rd of September, at 45.3%. But to claim "renewables surge past 50%", and make direct reference to this as progress towards government targets like 82% which must be assessed on an annual basis, it is a fundamental and serious misrepresentation of the facts. Your article and headlines claims a rate of progress that has no basis in reality.
Since FY 2023, when the renewable share was 36.8% to the close of FY 2026 when we had 44.9%, renewable share has grown by just 2.7% on average per year. Therefore, it is most likely that at the current rate of progress, the 50% milestone which your article claims has been achieved will still not be achieved at the time of the next federal election campaign.
For major media outlets with prominent standing in the energy debate to establish in the public mind that such a milestone is already behind us is a serious disservice to debate.
I therefore request an immediate and clear correction to the articles and headlines in proportion to the prominence given.
Please find links to sources below:
explore.openelectricity.org.…
aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-r…
aemo.com.au/-/media/files/ma…
Sincerely,
Aidan Morrison
theaustralian.com.au/special…