Curious about global affairs and finance Enthusiast of gold, silver, commodities and resource stocks
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OIL PRODUCERS CHEAPER THAN GOLD MINERS ? XLE MUST BEAT GDX BY 55% JUST TO HIT THE 20-YEAR MEDIAN
Two ratios. Same story. Asymmetric payoff.
➡️ Gold / WTI = 48.4 barrels per ounce. 20-year weekly median 20.9, mean 24.0. Today is the 92nd percentile. Gold expensive. Oil cheap.
From the June 2022 trough near 16 barrels the ratio roughly tripled. A return to the median implies oil rising ~132% versus gold — or gold falling the equivalent amount.
➡️ XLE / GDX = 0.65. Median 1.00. Mean 1.13. 75th percentile 1.51. Current reading: 19th percentile. The January 2026 low of 0.46 matched the 2010 trough.
My assessment: the commodity gap is larger than the equity gap. Oil is ~1.3× cheap versus gold. Producers are only 35–45% cheap versus miners versus the median. Miners already capitalized the rich-gold / cheap-energy margin. Energy equities have not.
If the equity ratio mean-reverts:
➡️ 20-year median (1.00): XLE outperforms GDX by +55%
➡️ 20-year mean (1.13): +74%
➡️ 75th percentile (1.51): +134%
That is not a forecast that XLE rises 55% in a vacuum. GDX can fall. Both can rally. Energy just has to win.
The catch-up started in 2026. From 0.46 the ratio is 0.65. YTD XLE is roughly +45% versus GDX +16%. Gold/oil came off its mid-2025 / early-2026 spike above 55–58 as oil firmed on Middle East supply risk. Below 0.70 is still cheap. It is no longer the floor.
My take: gold miners are energy-intensive. Cheap oil + expensive gold expanded their margins from 2022 into early 2026. When oil rises versus gold, that margin compresses and capital rotates toward producers. That is the mechanical case — not a P/E screen.
The leftover gap is the trade. Normalization does not need a gold crash. It needs energy to stop being the forgotten half of the pair.
Who owns the producers when oil stops being this cheap versus gold?
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TRUMP CANNOT CONCEDE BECAUSE HE CANNOT ADMIT HE IS STUCK: THE STORY WASHINGTON TELLS ITSELF WHILE THE WAR DRAGS
Jim Hanson, Military analyst connected to the White House went on Piers Morgan Uncensored and recited the official story. Iran is broke. The regime is hanging by its fingernails. Time will finish the job. Trump is in charge. The plan is working. That is not analysis. It is the administration talking to itself so it never has to look like the weaker side.
THE STORY THEY NEED TO BELIEVE
➡️ Hanson says Tehran has no oil revenue, cannot feed its proxies, and will break.
➡️ He says nobody thinks the Islamic Republic survives as Iran’s government.
➡️ He treats months of unresolved war as early innings against a decades-old system.
➡️ The claim does the political work Trump needs: if collapse is inevitable, no concession is required.
“WE OPENED IT”
➡️ On Fox, Hanson said: “They can’t open the strait. It’s open. We opened it.”
➡️ “President Trump showed the world who’s in charge… of the world’s energy supply… of the world’s most powerful military.”
➡️ “I think the world is recognizing that his plan is working.”
➡️ Seven months on, that sentence is the tell. If the plan were working, he would not have to announce it.
WHY TRUMP CANNOT MAKE A REAL DEAL
➡️ Any concession to Iran would be read, by Trump himself, as losing.
➡️ Hanson still describes the endgame as pressure until the regime changes or is worn down.
➡️ Gulf capitals are told to “step up.” Two straits become energy leverage. The other side is supposed to fold.
➡️ Even a show deal would not be kept if it made Washington look weaker. That is not a path to settlement. It is a path to more of the same.
THE FINGERNAILS FANTASY
➡️ “Their days are numbered.”
➡️ IRGC “hanging on by their fingernails,” Hormuz “about all they’ve got left,” proxies fading.
➡️ “President Trump’s got the pressure on, and they will break.”
➡️ This is the same clock that was supposed to run out in two to three weeks, then five to six. The clock keeps getting reset. The posture never does.
WHAT THE TOUGH TALK HIDES
➡️ Hanson insists there will be no nuclear strike and no ground invasion.
➡️ The “choice” he offers Tehran is convert or be ground down.
➡️ Hyperbolic annihilate-language is waved away as pressure. The refusal underneath it is the policy: do not be the weaker party, even if that means there is no off-ramp he can accept.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Hanson’s interview is useful because it is honest about the psychology. The administration has decided Iran is already losing, so admitting a stalemate would make Trump the loser. That belief is why a durable deal is not on the table. Strength that cannot concede is not strategy. It is a trap with better lighting.
The plan is working only if you never have to define what winning looks like.
#JimHanson #TrumpIran #PlanIsWorking #Hormuz #NoOffRamp #LawOfTheStronger #StuckWar
HT: YouTube Piers Morgan Uncensored
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So much already written about these impossibly misleading fake news on X. It is what it is — until it isn’t. Don’t get shaken out of your oil stocks!
No progress has been made in indirect negotiations with the Trump regime. The region is heading toward escalation, as Persian Gulf dictatorships complicit in the war against Iran join Trump and Bessent's conspiracy against the Iranian people.
Never trust Axios or Aljazeera.
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HEDGEYE MATH FLASHED BUY OIL WITH BOTH HANDS
Keith McCullough is the founder and CEO of Hedgeye. He does not put his own money — or the money of the clients who follow his book — on vibes, peace headlines, or a guess about “where oil should be.” He runs a rate-of-change machine: price, volatility, volume. This week that machine said one thing. Buy oil. Buy energy. Buy it with both hands.
THE MAN AND THE METHOD
➡️ McCullough built Hedgeye on a simple rule: emotion is a firing offense. Data is the job.
➡️ The oil call is not a speech. It is a signal. If the signal flips, he flips. That is the whole edge.
THE TRADE THIS WEEK
➡️ He is long crude, long energy stocks, long refiners, long shipping.
➡️ Energy was the only sleeve in the stock market that finished up on the day he is describing.
➡️ Monday and Tuesday were the gift. Narratives screamed peace, tarmac diplomacy, oil coming down. The tape said buy.
➡️ “There is no peace and love in the Straits of Hormuz,” he said. The market already knew that. The headlines did not.
WHY $100 IS NOT A CEILING IN HIS BOOK
➡️ People keep saying oil cannot live above $100 for long.
➡️ The last time that chorus got loud, he reminds you, was into 2008. Then crude went to $150.
➡️ He is not forecasting $150. He is saying the “it already ran” crowd has been wrong at this exact wall before.
WHAT THE ALGORITHM IS PRINTING NOW
➡️ He does not claim to know the destination. “I have no idea where the oil price is going and neither do you.”
➡️ The model does. Near term it capped Brent around $112 over the next three weeks — sell into that if the number holds.
➡️ If the same signal lifts toward $142 over the next two, three, or six months, he follows that number instead.
➡️ Humility, in his version, is not softness. It is listening when the math changes.
THE ENERGY SLEEVE, NOT THE INDEX
➡️ In his framework this is the inflation-and-growth tape where energy is the organic long, not a charity trade.
➡️ Rate-sensitive junk can die while crude, refiners, and tankers still work. That divergence is the point.
➡️ If you needed a one-factor chart: oil and the long end of the bond market have been traveling as a similar set. Long oil has been the cleaner expression of that tape.
THE BOTTOM LINE
McCullough is not selling a movie about peace in the Gulf. He is selling a machine that told him to own barrels and energy stocks this week — and to sell them only when that same machine says stop.
The signal said buy oil with both hands. That is the trade until it doesn’t.
#Oil #EnergyStocks #Hedgeye #McCullough #Hormuz #Brent #Crude
HT: YouTube David Lin @KeithMcCullough
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Iran sent its 7 NY conditions to mediators and Washington. No breakthrough. US wants the southern Hormuz lane kept open; Iran rejects it and accepts only the new Oman-agreed route. Tehran: fulfill all US pledges first. US: sanctions, assets, blockade wait on nukes. Window closing.
۱۷:۲۹/ ۳ مهر
ارزیابی راهبردی: شروط هفتگانه ایران در نیویورک به واسطه ها و طرف امریکایی منتقل شده است اما پیشرفتی در مذاکرات ایجاد نشده و امریکا حاضر به عمل به تعهدات خود نبوده است. امریکا اصرار دارد مسیر جنوبی تنگه هرمز باید بازبماند در حالی که ایران با این موضوع مخالف است و تنها مسیر اخیرا توافق شده با عمان را قبول دارد. ایران خواهان اجرای همه تعهدات امریکا قبل از مذاکرات بیشتر است اما امریکا لغو تحریم، آزادسازی دارایی ها و لغو محاصره را به مسئله هسته ای مشروط کرده است. به نظر می رسد پنجره دیپلماتیک در حال بسته شدن است.
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"ZELENSKY WILL CONTINUE THIS WAR AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE"
Iuliia Mendel was Volodymyr Zelensky’s press secretary from 2019 to 2021. She sat at the table with him, spoke in his name, and now says the man she served will not finish this war because peace would destroy him politically.
THE MAN SHE WORKED FOR
➡️ Mendel says Zelensky is chaotic. He wakes up and sees the world again, forgetting what he demanded the day before.
➡️ Ministers came to her because one sentence contradicted the next.
➡️ Inside the office there was fear. He can burst in anger, punish people unconnected to the problem, and put on a mask that makes officials go silent when he enters the room.
➡️ People who arrived with him are now in exile or under persecution. The charge she names is not law. It is disloyalty.
THE HUMAN HE STOPPED BEING
➡️ Early Zelensky, she says, still put ordinary people first.
➡️ The people who came to serve him were treated as expendable.
➡️ Five defense ministers in four and a half years. Whole governments dismissed with no explanation. Some ministers lasted three weeks.
➡️ He told the room he would fire another bunch. He did not care.
WHY HE WILL NOT STOP
➡️ From multiple contacts Mendel says he has denied at least five settlement tracks.
➡️ People who sat at the Istanbul table in 2022 told her the same sentence: the deal was there.
➡️ Finishing the war, in her telling, is political suicide for him. Lost land. Lost power. Lost wartime control.
➡️ “He will continue this war as much as possible.”
➡️ He will not take public responsibility for the land already gone or for the degradation of the country.
➡️ Asked whether Zelensky is now a bigger obstacle to peace than Putin, her personal answer is yes.
THE BOTTOM LINE
This is one former aide’s account, not a verdict. Mendel’s charge is narrower and harder: Zelensky has made the war his life, and a man whose life is the war will not choose the peace that ends him.
Don’t destroy the country to keep the president standing.
#Zelensky #IuliiaMendel #UkraineWar #PeaceTalks #Istanbul2022 #EndTheWar #Diplomacy
HT: YouTube Die Weltwoche
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THE YEMEN FRONT SAUDI DOES NOT WANT ON CAMERA
Almost nothing usable is coming out of Riyadh right now about the war with the Houthis. That vacuum is the story. When a kingdom goes this silent, you need a source who still tracks the map. Well-connected journalist Laith Marouf says the fight did not freeze. It moved.
THE NEWS DROUGHT
➡️ Official Saudi briefings on Yemen have gone thin just as the map is changing.
➡️ Taiz and Aden still hold most of the population outside the Sanaa government’s control.
➡️ Marouf’s read is simple: watch the road, not the press release.
THE TAIZ–ADEN SLOWDOWN
➡️ He says Yemeni forces cut the main road between Taiz and Aden and surrounded Taiz city.
➡️ Then they slowed the push on Aden on purpose.
➡️ Urban war inside their own major city is the fight they do not want yet.
WHERE THE MAP ACTUALLY MOVED
➡️ As the Taiz front cooled, hostilities rose on the Ma’rib axis.
➡️ North of Ma’rib sits Al-Jawf.
➡️ That is where he tells viewers to keep their eyes.
THE LAST PAVED CROSSING
➡️ North of Al-Jawf, Marouf says, sits the last remaining official paved land crossing between Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
➡️ He calls it the main route Riyadh still uses to send salaries and weapons south.
➡️ Take that crossing, in his account, and the forces holding the south are isolated.
WHY ADEN HANGS ON THAT ROAD
➡️ Isolated units would have to be resupplied by air and sea.
➡️ That is slower, costlier, and much harder to sustain.
➡️ He says the effect would be huge for the battle of Aden and for the rest of the country.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The quiet from Riyadh is not proof the war paused. On Marouf’s map the Houthis stopped racing Aden so they could threaten the last land pipe that keeps the south supplied. If that crossing goes, the expensive war becomes an air-and-sea war.
#YemenWar #Houthis #SaudiArabia #AlJawf #Marib #Aden #EnergyWar
HT: YouTube Dialogue Works @Dialogue_NRA
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Last days made it unmistakable: oil is heading to $120+. Iran won’t budge. Trump won’t admit defeat — he escalates after the midterms. Iran may strike first.
OIL $120 BY NOVEMBER — AND HE STILL SAYS DEMAND DESTRUCTION IS NOT HERE
Cédric Spahr, Ex Head of Investment at Credit Suisse Securities Europe Ltd in Switzerland, puts a number on the next move in crude — then refuses the panic that usually follows. Higher oil is coming, in his view. The rich-world economy breaking at the pump is not. That gap is the whole argument.
HIS OIL CALL
➡️ From his market work, oil can easily rise toward $120 by October or November.
➡️ That is another 20% from here, as he frames it.
➡️ Diesel and jet fuel have already become tighter, and more expensive, than gasoline.
➡️ In Germany and France he sees about €2.10 a litre at the pump for gasoline.
➡️ Diesel, he says, is likely to get more expensive over the next four months.
THE QUESTION ON THE TABLE
➡️ Then comes the question every logistics boss and farmer is whispering: if diesel hits €3 or €4 a litre, do companies stop producing and do farmers let the harvest rot?
➡️ Empty shelves are the fear. Trucks move the system. Without diesel, the system stalls.
➡️ That is the “magic border” people want named. Spahr refuses to name it as already crossed.
STILL FAR FROM THE BREAK
➡️ “I think we are still far from that,” Spahr said.
➡️ A path toward $120 is pain at the pump.
➡️ In his read, it is not yet the point where rich economies shut the factory door.
THE 1980s REALITY CHECK
➡️ Spahr lived the early-1980s pump in Switzerland: about one franc a litre.
➡️ Today the sticker looks twice as high. After forty years of inflation, he still calls fuel “relatively cheap.”
➡️ The number on the totem pole is not the same as the burden on a high-value economy.
WHY RICH COUNTRIES CAN STILL TAKE IT
➡️ It depends on how much value an economy adds per litre burned.
➡️ Switzerland sells expensive watches, medicines, and financial services. In that model, Spahr says fuel costs could probably be doubled and the machine would still run.
➡️ Some farmers on the Swiss plateau might quit or raise prices. The wider economy does not stop.
➡️ Germany and France are a different story. He can picture some SMEs throwing in the towel. That is strain, not system death.
THE REAL SQUEEZE IS NOT THE DIESEL PUMP
➡️ “The main energy source for the modern economy today is electricity, not diesel,” Spahr said.
➡️ He expects European gas prices to rise hard into winter. That feeds through into power bills fast.
➡️ That is where he sees real consequences for small and mid-size firms — stacked on fuel, not instead of it. Energy inflation stays a longer problem.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Spahr’s sequence is simple: crude can still run toward $120 into autumn, diesel gets dearer than gasoline, and rich high-value economies can still absorb it. The €3–€4 horror line is not the tripwire yet. The quieter threat is power prices arriving on top of diesel, not a sudden collapse at the pump.
#OilPrice #DemandDestruction #Diesel #FuelPrices #EnergyInflation #Spahr #EuropeEnergy
HT: YouTube Dr. Dietmar Peetz
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👇
IRAN SETS A 4–5 DAY CLOCK: NO TALKS UNTIL WASHINGTON SAYS YES
Iran’s top security official just put a short fuse on the two waterways that move the world’s oil. On state television, Mohsen Rezaei said Washington has four to five days to meet Tehran’s conditions. Until that happens, he said, there will be no negotiations — and the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb stay closed.
THE CLOCK
➡️ Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told state TV the United States now has four to five days to fulfill Iran’s terms.
He tied that deadline to two questions that go far beyond any hallway chat in New York: whether talks resume at all, and whether Hormuz ever reopens.
THE SEQUENCE
➡️ As long as the conditions are not accepted, there are no negotiations with the United States.
➡️ As long as they are not accepted, Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remain closed.
That is the order he laid down. Talks do not unlock the water. Acceptance does.
THE PACKAGE
➡️ Tehran says the same conditions have already been given to mediators.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is said to have sent them again through intermediaries during the UN meetings in New York. Rezaei added that the demands were also passed to the United Nations.
➡️ Nothing in the list has changed.
Washington is being asked to answer an old package on a new clock.
THE NEW DIPLOMACY
➡️ “We do not return to the diplomacy of the past.”
Rezaei said the diplomacy Iran has started is completely different from what came before. On one side sit the written conditions. On the other sits the warning: without acceptance there are no talks, the straits stay shut — and if force is used to open them, the Americans are to be driven out of the region.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Tehran is not offering a courtesy window. It is offering a short deadline, an unchanged list, and two closed chokepoints until Washington says yes. Four to five days is not a talking point. It is the clock they just put on the oil map.
#IranUltimatum #Hormuz #BabelMandeb #Rezaei #OilShock #USIran #StraitCrisis
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Iranians are so thrilled with the phased deal they’re celebrating it with fireworks !
BREAKING: Iran has just launched 2 ballistic missiles from Urmia in northwestern Iran, heading south, per initial reports.
The launches come shortly after anonymous "sources" claimed US and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased path out of the war.
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BREAKING: Ghalibaf just publicly confirmed the US-brokered phased Hormuz deal!
Happy 5.1% 10Y America 🎉. Mashallah. Celebrate: it’s the floor two years out.
You wanted Iran dragged back to 1970s? Nobody told you Iran isn’t for arrogant amateurs? We’ll return you to 1970s rates, plus high gas prices, diesel shortages and bell-bottoms. Enjoy the nostalgia!
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