HEDGEYE MATH FLASHED BUY OIL WITH BOTH HANDS Keith McCullough is the founder and CEO of Hedgeye. He does not put his own money — or the money of the clients who follow his book — on vibes, peace headlines, or a guess about “where oil should be.” He runs a rate-of-change machine: price, volatility, volume. This week that machine said one thing. Buy oil. Buy energy. Buy it with both hands. THE MAN AND THE METHOD ➡️ McCullough built Hedgeye on a simple rule: emotion is a firing offense. Data is the job. ➡️ The oil call is not a speech. It is a signal. If the signal flips, he flips. That is the whole edge. THE TRADE THIS WEEK ➡️ He is long crude, long energy stocks, long refiners, long shipping. ➡️ Energy was the only sleeve in the stock market that finished up on the day he is describing. ➡️ Monday and Tuesday were the gift. Narratives screamed peace, tarmac diplomacy, oil coming down. The tape said buy. ➡️ “There is no peace and love in the Straits of Hormuz,” he said. The market already knew that. The headlines did not. WHY $100 IS NOT A CEILING IN HIS BOOK ➡️ People keep saying oil cannot live above $100 for long. ➡️ The last time that chorus got loud, he reminds you, was into 2008. Then crude went to $150. ➡️ He is not forecasting $150. He is saying the “it already ran” crowd has been wrong at this exact wall before. WHAT THE ALGORITHM IS PRINTING NOW ➡️ He does not claim to know the destination. “I have no idea where the oil price is going and neither do you.” ➡️ The model does. Near term it capped Brent around $112 over the next three weeks — sell into that if the number holds. ➡️ If the same signal lifts toward $142 over the next two, three, or six months, he follows that number instead. ➡️ Humility, in his version, is not softness. It is listening when the math changes. THE ENERGY SLEEVE, NOT THE INDEX ➡️ In his framework this is the inflation-and-growth tape where energy is the organic long, not a charity trade. ➡️ Rate-sensitive junk can die while crude, refiners, and tankers still work. That divergence is the point. ➡️ If you needed a one-factor chart: oil and the long end of the bond market have been traveling as a similar set. Long oil has been the cleaner expression of that tape. THE BOTTOM LINE McCullough is not selling a movie about peace in the Gulf. He is selling a machine that told him to own barrels and energy stocks this week — and to sell them only when that same machine says stop. The signal said buy oil with both hands. That is the trade until it doesn’t. #Oil #EnergyStocks #Hedgeye #McCullough #Hormuz #Brent #Crude HT: YouTube David Lin @KeithMcCullough