Casual commentator, qualified engineer, part-time builder, full-time developer.
Melbourne, Victoria
- Tweets 33,084
- Following 549
- Followers 9,722
- Likes 99,310
Pinned Tweet
Australia has a relatively small population.
We share no land borders and are protected by vast oceans.
We have abundant agricultural land, enormous natural resources, and some of the world’s most valuable exports.
We’ve enjoyed more than 80 years without war on our own soil and never experienced a civil war.
There is no reason poverty should be increasing in this country.
There is no reason the middle class should be shrinking.
There is no reason each generation shouldn’t have the opportunity to live better than the last.
Australia’s challenges aren’t the result of a lack of land, resources, wealth, or stability.
They are the result of political decisions.
And for too long, we’ve kept electing politicians who fail us.
942
2,081
10,544
336,881
Of course this is a stunt.
But Kochi isn’t wrong - government must get its spending under control.
Households have copped it since Covid - while government is now spending more than it did during Covid.
I think the RBA should’ve hiked rates sooner and higher - at least the pain would’ve been sharper and shallower.
But more now isn’t targeting the problem - it’ll mostly just increase the wealth transfer from struggling mortgage holders to banks.
We can’t control global factors, but we can do plenty domestically to reduce demand and increase supply capacity.
The RBA has one tool, but government has many - and it’ll only act right when enough people demand it.
Former @sunriseon7 host David Koch has blamed a looming interest rate rise on government spending. 7news.com.au/news/david-koch…
19
13
124
4,257
Can we all at least agree the RBA needs more tools to better target the different drivers of inflation?
(setting aside the arguments against central banks and fiat currencies more broadly)
To me, this is a clear takeaway clear from this tumultuous post-Covid era where governments have abdicated their responsibility to do their part.
184
Can we all at least agree the RBA needs more tools to better target the different drivers of inflation?
(setting aside the arguments against central banks and fiat currencies more broadly)
To me, this is a clear takeaway clear from this tumultuous post-Covid era where governments have abdicated their responsibility to do their part.
41
1
50
3,212
However flawed any proposed super changes may be, two facts are undeniable:
1. Home ownership is critical for financial security
2. Housing affordability is at a record low
By all means, debate every policy lever - productivity, supply, immigration, taxation, etc.
But when government tries to shut down debate with ‘raiding your super’ scare lines, it’s deflecting from its own failures.
If you make it harder for people to buy a home today, you can’t simply tell them their super will make up for it tomorrow.
So the question isn’t if super matters - it’s whether or not the system works as a whole to achieve both.
When government is more focused on controlling your super than ensuring you have a home, it’s valid to question its priorities.
27
23
147
3,265
This is where I stand on YIMBY.
The regulations (and associated processes, risks, costs and delays) to build anything here are insane.
I also support an overhaul of our migration system.
We need to be able to build what people want for a price they can afford - not what bureaucrats think is good for them.
Regardless of the type of house you want to live in, planning deregulation is a sign of sanity under current settings.
By all means, debate the detail - not the need for reform.
174
This is where I stand on YIMBY.
The regulations (and associated processes, risks, costs and delays) to build anything here are insane.
I also support an overhaul of our migration system.
We need to be able to build what people want for a price they can afford - not what bureaucrats think is good for them.
Regardless of the type of house you want to live in, planning deregulation is a sign of sanity under current settings.
By all means, debate the detail - not the need for reform.
Brother even if we had low migration these reforms would be hugely important for the Australian economy. Even as Japan shrinks, Tokyo continues to grow.
6
4
36
2,069
When One Nation was rising in the polls, I distinctly recall Labor supporters saying things like "they're just taking votes away from the Coalition".
That denial did your side no favours - maybe if you’d care more to understand the trajectory, you could’ve influenced Labor to pivot to avoid this.
Labor has now lost 35% of its 2025 voters, with the largest proportion lost to One Nation.
In net terms it has shed 24.9% after factoring in the gains it has made winning over new voters and those who voted for other parties in 2025.
19
22
293
16,268
I’m going to be less diplomatic than I usually am - Australia is fucked.
The housing ponzi has reached unsustainable levels.
Demand for coal is reducing, so we can’t rely on it like we have.
Manufacturing is almost completely dead and there’s nothing to revive it.
Businesses aren’t investing here as our taxes and regulations restrict returns.
We’re not participating in the AI race that’ll deliver immense wealth to nations who are.
Kids are falling behind in STEM, so we’re becoming less technically literate.
Investment in R&D is pathetic, so innovation won’t save us.
Productivity is sinking and we keep doubling down on the causes.
Social division is tearing us apart as we lack a unifying cause.
We have an aging population that’s being replaced with low-skilled immigration.
Our most aspirational young people are leaving for places that offer affordable living and socio-economic mobility.
We have a tall poppy syndrome that demonises competence and success.
Our politicians are entirely unserious and unequipped to deal with the challenges ahead.
466
549
4,014
194,031
I said this well over a year ago - and I’m doubling down, because since then:
Housing affordability hit its lowest level on record.
Government delivered an anti-aspirational budget that makes us even less globally competitive.
Business investment is concentrated in data centre construction that masks the deficiencies elsewhere.
AI isn’t delivering us the productivity growth it is in the US due to poor adoption at scale.
Kids hit their lowest maths score on record and science scores continue to decline.
Government forecasts baseless productivity growth while doing more to hinder than to boost it.
Inaction on immigration reform continues to dominate political debate.
We experienced our worst ever terror attack on Australian soil and fumbled the response.
Our cultural and political environment is even more fragmented amid a growing sense of hopelessness.
Our politicians continue to demonstrate they lack the business acumen to respond to the challenges ahead.
2
383
I said this well over a year ago - and I’m doubling down, because since then:
Housing affordability hit its lowest level on record.
Government delivered an anti-aspirational budget that makes us even less globally competitive.
Business investment is concentrated in data centre construction that masks the deficiencies elsewhere.
AI isn’t delivering us the productivity growth it is in the US due to poor adoption at scale.
Kids hit their lowest maths score on record and science scores continue to decline.
Government forecasts baseless productivity growth while doing more to hinder than to boost it.
Inaction on immigration reform continues to dominate political debate.
We experienced our worst ever terror attack on Australian soil and fumbled the response.
Our cultural and political environment is even more fragmented amid a growing sense of hopelessness.
Our politicians continue to demonstrate they lack the business acumen to respond to the challenges ahead.
I’m going to be less diplomatic than I usually am - Australia is fucked.
The housing ponzi has reached unsustainable levels.
Demand for coal is reducing, so we can’t rely on it like we have.
Manufacturing is almost completely dead and there’s nothing to revive it.
Businesses aren’t investing here as our taxes and regulations restrict returns.
We’re not participating in the AI race that’ll deliver immense wealth to nations who are.
Kids are falling behind in STEM, so we’re becoming less technically literate.
Investment in R&D is pathetic, so innovation won’t save us.
Productivity is sinking and we keep doubling down on the causes.
Social division is tearing us apart as we lack a unifying cause.
We have an aging population that’s being replaced with low-skilled immigration.
Our most aspirational young people are leaving for places that offer affordable living and socio-economic mobility.
We have a tall poppy syndrome that demonises competence and success.
Our politicians are entirely unserious and unequipped to deal with the challenges ahead.
18
21
196
7,492
Marko Matvikov retweeted
My column for @abcnews about migration and productivity
abc.net.au/news/2026-09-21/m…
50
32
151
26,137
Marko Matvikov retweeted
The IGR has never been an honest reckoning with the challenges the country faces. It is a policy advocacy document, and every edition has carried the political project of the treasurer who signed it.
2002 was the ageing time bomb, used to make surpluses a moral duty and set up the Future Fund. 2007 was the three Ps and a victory lap on the mining boom. 2010 was Big Australia and climate, in service of the emissions trading scheme. 2015 modelled three scenarios purely to show what happened if the Senate kept blocking the 2014 budget, and came with Dr Karl on the telly. 2021 was closed borders as the reason migration had to come roaring back. 2023 was the care economy, which made the aged care and NDIS spend structural rather than discretionary. 2026 is AI, and falling fertility recast as the case for more migration.
Seven reports, seven pet themes. A 40 year projection in service of a partisan three year agenda.
1
2
14
1,241
Marko Matvikov retweeted
PEOPLE POWER
This morning’s Fin Review has a look back at the quarter of a century since the first Intergenerational Report (IGR) was released
It’s a handy read ahead of today’s release of an updated IGR
In brief, the first IGR was remarkably successful at projecting the overall size of the economy
7
8
37
5,334
This is a shocking chart.
Despite the last decade delivering 0.0% productivity growth, the government is forecasting 1.2% per year for the next 40 years.
And even with this optimism that isn’t supported by current settings - which do more to hurt than to boost productivity - the projection for the next 40 years is worse than all the previous projections.
The more Jim cooks the books, the more it exposes how hopeless he is and dire our economic outlook is becoming.
Shane is self-evidently right about the urgent need for serious reform.
..the latest IGR w lower than ever per cap GDP even with an optimistic productivity assumption & budget deficits forever highlights the need for more serious reform to get gov spending down,deregulate & reform the tax system (to cut reliance on inc tax) to boost productivity grth
18
38
259
6,590
A sobering summary of the dire long term outlook for Australia from @AlanKohler.
Declining economic growth, rising income tax relative to output and bigger deficits as government spending increasingly outpaces tax revenue.
The kicker is this assumes productivity growth that isn’t supported by policy - so without major change, it’s likely to be much worse.
3
157
A sobering summary of the dire long term outlook for Australia from @AlanKohler.
Declining economic growth, rising income tax relative to output and bigger deficits as government spending increasingly outpaces tax revenue.
The kicker is this assumes productivity growth that isn’t supported by policy - so without major change, it’s likely to be much worse.
64
111
578
27,558
THE TERRIBLE TOUPEE IS BACK!
Garbage in, garbage out …
Once every few years Canberra looks ahead to judge what Australia may look like in 40 years
Even when these Intergenerational Reports (IGRs) are flawed, they deliver great insights
Yet the single most important building block is the assumption about productivity growth
As Paul Krugman so beautifully put it, “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything”
So that’s why you absolutely shouldn’t use garbage as your assumption for productivity growth
That’s why it is so disturbing to hear this morning’s news that the government is assuming 1.2% a year as the gain in productivity as the foundational stone on which everything in Monday’s new Intergenerational Report is built
Umm, that assumption is bollocks …
Yes, the rise of AI has the potential to lift productivity gains both here and around the world
But there has been a disastrous drift in Australia’s productivity growth (as seen in the chart)
In the last twenty years (the assumption used in the last IGR) our productivity growth has averaged 0.49%
In the last 10 years that average productivity gain has been 0.00%
Yep. Nuthin …
The difference between 0% a year and 1.2% a year becomes 61% over four decades
Yes, the rise of AI has the potential to lift productivity gains here and around the world:
· But that’s a possibility – not something we should be baking in now
· If we do bake in something for AI gains, that ‘something’ should be believable
· And, regardless, if we think AI is the answer to everything, then you’d wonder why the Australian government isn’t urgently pushing through an AI skills program for the entire Australian workforce
Instead, the rise of AI is being used as a terrible toupee to try to hide the ever-larger bald spots evident in the Australian economy and the Australian budget
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is an embarrassment
3
420
Marko Matvikov retweeted
PROMISING YOU A ROSE GARDEN …
Along with sunshine …
I love Intergenerational Reports (IGRs)
At their best, they make Australia and Australians think about the future – something we’re not great at
But incentives matter, and a politician releasing a report that makes forty year projections knows the eventual success or otherwise of its forecasts will be a problem for a later generation of politicians
Or, to put that differently, the incentive to gild the lily in IGRs is larger than in almost any other report that governments produce
So the key question for today’s report is whether it will make the same mistake that all its predecessors made over the past quarter of a century – the mistake of over-promising on prosperity
Past IGRs all over-promised and under-delivered on productivity growth
We already know that the report being released today will assume that productivity – the foundation stone of the report – will rise at a rate of 1.2% a year
That could happen. But the past decade saw Australian productivity growth of exactly zero
So just remember that today’s report is a leap of faith in the impact of AI
That leap of faith may be entirely justified. Here’s hoping …
But if our politicians believe that AI will dominate our future prosperity prospects, then we should also be wondering why there isn’t a national sense of urgency around skilling up our workforce for AI
If AI is the peg on which our future prosperity rests – and it could be – then it is time to start acting on that and skilling at speed
9
5
19
2,358
Or maybe the adverse impacts of high immigration combined with poor management have a lot to do with why our birth rate is so low.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said that the falling birth rate in Australia strengthens the case for higher levels of immigration.
news24.com.au/politics/austr…
29
18
249
5,347
Oh look, Abul is in my comments again making a strawman argument to a post critical of immigration. Let’s unpack his pathetic attempt at a gotcha:
1. He ignores the specific wording in my post, including “combined with poor management” and “have a lot to do with” - which are explicit qualifiers to acknowledge there are other factors at play
2. He picks China and Japan without following through to the fact that neither are adopting high and non-targeted immigration as a solution to their demographic and economic challenges
3. Surveys in Australia consistently show there’s a gap between the number of children people want to have and the number they’re having - and cost of living, housing affordability and insecurity are repeatedly cited as the reasons why
4. When Abul was in his twenties, a median single wage earner could reasonably save toward a modest family home and support kids on that income - that lifestyle looks like a luxury by today’s standards
5. Poor immigration settings contribute to the underlying problems - real wage growth suppression, pressure on housing and infrastructure, poor business investment and lazy economic management
6. Even if declining fertility is now hard to reverse, that doesn’t justify leaning into endless population growth as the solution - we should be confronting the reality that what worked last century is falling apart in this one
2
221
Oh look, Abul is in my comments again making a strawman argument to a post critical of immigration. Let’s unpack his pathetic attempt at a gotcha:
1. He ignores the specific wording in my post, including “combined with poor management” and “have a lot to do with” - which are explicit qualifiers to acknowledge there are other factors at play
2. He picks China and Japan without following through to the fact that neither are adopting high and non-targeted immigration as a solution to their demographic and economic challenges
3. Surveys in Australia consistently show there’s a gap between the number of children people want to have and the number they’re having - and cost of living, housing affordability and insecurity are repeatedly cited as the reasons why
4. When Abul was in his twenties, a median single wage earner could reasonably save toward a modest family home and support kids on that income - that lifestyle looks like a luxury by today’s standards
5. Poor immigration settings contribute to the underlying problems - real wage growth suppression, pressure on housing and infrastructure, poor business investment and lazy economic management
6. Even if declining fertility is now hard to reverse, that doesn’t justify leaning into endless population growth as the solution - we should be confronting the reality that what worked last century is falling apart in this one
High immigration must also be the reason Japan & China have a lower fertility rate than OZ? Oh wait, they have a much lower fertility rate AND lower immigration!!
19
5
181
5,584