$WDC wow‼️ It’s our 19th Marlin Capital multibagger… In the last 19 months! We bought on 4/8 at $335. It’s now up +109% in <3 months for us. 🤯

Only 51% of $SPX stocks are currently above their 200-day moving averages. Yet the index -is 0.5% from a record. The last time that happened was March 2000. $SPX $QQQ

Multiples almost always compress after the Fed starts hiking. Looking at the last 5 cycles, every single one saw the P/E contract. But P/E compression alone doesn't sink the market. The median 12M return after the 1st hike is still +6.8%. The difference is always earnings. 👇 $SPX $QQQ $IWM

Not all Fed hiking cycles are equal. Historically, the higher the inflation when the Fed begins to hike, the worse equities have performed. The faster the tightening cycle, the worse equities have performed. $SPX $QQQ $IWM

To put this in more reassuring terms, senior Anthropic staff think the chance AI kills all humans within the next decade is approximately the chance the New York Jets make the playoffs

Only 22% of firms say they’re using AI in their regular business functions. We’re very early. $SPY $QQQ $SOX

The best proxy for the AI trade. 👇 AI beneficiaries vs AI at risk This pair is down -46% in the last ~3 months‼️ $SOX $NVDA $DRAM $IGV

The most important line from tonight's $NVDA call came from the CFO. 👇 “CapEx by the top 5 hyperscalers is expected to reach $800B in 2026 and $1.3T in 2027.” Consensus had $1.3T in 2028.  She just moved it up a year to 2027‼️ $SOX $MU $LITE $NBIS

September tends to be a negative & volatile month in midterm election years. $SPX $QQQ

YTD, Goldman’s Momentum bucket has had 24 distinct 1-day selloffs of more than -5%. That is already more than the prior 5 years COMBINED. “Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established." - George Soros

Hedge funds have de-risked at a historic pace in Q3. It is the largest de-leveraging since COVID. $SPY $QQQ

It’s August 18th. In mid-term election years since 1990, the $SPW has peaked on 8/18 on average before a -7-8% pullback into mid-October.

It’s far from just hype. AI Infrastructure is driving the massive $SPX earnings boom we’re seeing.

It’s all about liquidity. The $SPX has been moving in sync with Global M2 (on an 11 week lag). It’s signaling $8200 for the $SPX.

The market has been carried by everything except AI for the last 3 months. 3M returns… 👇 $SPX ex-AI: +8.4% Broad AI: 0%, despite being 4x more volatile