The BBC's Projected National Share in GB translates into the following seat tally: ➡️REF: 376 (+371) 🌹LAB: 113 (-299) 🔸LD: 71 (-1) 🌳CON: 12 (-109) 🟢Green: 5 (+1) Reform Majority of 100.

I don't know if there was a huge local issue at play here, but on paper this result sums up the Green's fortunes outside of cities: horrendous. This sort of result also confirms why in seats like North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley, the Greens are doomed.

The Right (Conservative/Reform/RESTORE) is forecast to receive 49% of the vote, yet they are projected to receive 40% of the seats across GB. The Left (Labour/LibDem/Green/Nationalist) is forecast to receive 49% of the vote. They are projected to receive 60% of the seats across GB. The Right in Britiain has never been more divided.

Interesting idea in principle, but how would such a card work at a supermarket or corner shop where the merchant is Tesco, Sainsbury's etc..? You buy groceries and booze and cigarettes all in one transaction. Almost impossible to discriminate as to what one buys.

By-election projection for Holborn & St Pancras constituency: 🌹 LAB: 46% (−3) 🟢 Green: 35% (+25) 🌳 CON: 6% (−1) ➡️ RFM: 6% (−) 🟠 LD: 4% (−2) ⚪ OTH: 3% LAB -> Green swing: 14% LAB Hold

No surprises here. Burnham wins in Holborn and St Pancras and the Greens are quashed. The Right is divided and the left is united. Perfect opportunity for an early election from Burnham's perspective. My hunch is Labour wins Holborn and St Pancras by more than a 10% margin.

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This is the first council by-election result I've seen that matches the narrative of the Burnham bounce. Labour getting more than double the vote of Reform UK, in a split ward that Labour very narrowly held onto only 3 months ago. Perhaps the Burnham bounce is only an electoral phenomenon in the North.

Yup. I texted a journalist earlier that I’d have expected half this number. 43% - and only fifteen points down on general - is really rather high given the lack of other parties standing

Clacton goes to the polls tomorrow. Nigel Farage will win, but there are two targets that he must hit in order for his victory to be considered a success. 1) He must poll more raw votes than he did in the General Election which was 21,225. 2) He must secure a higher vote share than Giles Watling did in 2019 which was 72%.

For those of you in the comments saying that what I'm saying doesn't add up, take a look at the graph below. In 1980, just 8.8% of A-level entries received an A. By 2009, it was 26.7%. That's more than 3x the proportion.

The turnout in Clacton will be much, much lower than in the GE. I reckon between 30 and 35%.

I stood on Vauxhall Bridge at 7.12pm and aside from feeling a bit cooler and there being a big crowd, I couldn't really notice anything. Until I went back and looked at my photos and then discovered that the eclipse was hiding in plain sight!