TS #Isaias with "THAT LOOK"... We know what happens next. A hurricane landfall is possible anywhere between Louisiana and Florida's Big Bend. But how strong? It'll depend on storm structure + interaction with the shear vector and upper level jet.

Radar shows a nascent core in TS #Isaias. This is supported by very deep convection showing on satellite. The storm still has a supportive environment.

#TD09, future #Isaias, already attempting to build a core... This night will be interesting, and also it'll dictate the system future.

No matter the background, Super El Niño or not... NEVER doubt the Gulf of Mexico warm waters! Future #Isaias is going off right now, with very deep convection firing over the LLC, while it moves slowly to the ENE.

This year's El Niño continues its climb into uncharted waters; Niño3.4 region anomalies are now at a 3.4C above normal (how fitting!), higher than any prior El Niño event on record. September monthly Niño3.4 anomalies also set a record at 2.9C (beating 2015 and 1877's 2.75C).

Hot towers are popping up in #PTC9's center... With incredible warm waters and low shear, we could see a big jump in the next hours, with DMIN. Now it's a waiting game.

There's at least a partial, weak low level circulation in #Invest92L right now, aided by land friction. As it remains over very warm waters and relatively low shear, further strengthening is expected.

Esto es algo que está empezando a aparecer en el modelo Europeo y en el Americano... Aún temprano para concluir, pero si, una disipación más lenta de #ElNiño aparece en los modelos. Eso también aleja cualquier migración a #LaNiña a mediano plazo. Habrá que ver en siguientes meses.

BREAKING: for the first time since reliable records began, the Niño 3.4 reached 30°C, on 5 October. This year's event will peak between November-December. Buckle up fellas, there's still a lot of road ahead.

Desde #Pisco hasta #Talara el calentamiento litoral en 7°C. Por eso las temperaturas están volando en la costa. No tenemos antecedentes de estos valores en esta época del año. #ElNiño

Wow, if the Euro artificial intelligence ends up being correct, we could be witnessing one of the strongest Westerly bursts since the beginning of this El Niño event. Take note of that white blip.

Hints of rotation are starting to appear in #92L's low level, as land friction is helping the system build a core. Convection is going non stop.

The 2 extremes in the Pacific: almost +14°C anomalies in the Niño regions, and -2°C to -5°C waters deep below the WPAC! #ElNiño

We can see some vorticity being forced by land and coastal terrain interaction in #92L, but it's still a very disorganized mess. It'll take some time to build at least a decent core.

And we have #Invest92L. Will the Gulf Of Mexico do its magic against the Super El Niño? Time will tell...

The brand new ECMWF El Niño forecast has just arrived, and it's quite something. It shows the El Niño peaking around or just above 4°C in December. But what's most notable is the duration of record-breaking conditions, with with many members remaining above 3°C into April!

You've probably never seen El Niño quite like this. This cutaway view shows the Pacific Ocean in motion from above and below, as a massive reservoir of heat shifts through the depths, followed by record-warm waters spreading across the surface.

ZERO trade winds until 18 November, at least. #ElNiño.

The 2026 Super #ElNiño is so strong that it literally went off the chart. It's just GONE.

Nino 3.4 🚀 Son rekor seviyenin ardından dikey eksen 30,5C° ulaştı 1982-2026 klimatolojik referansı ,1991-2020 klimatolojik referansların üstünde yani Süper El Niño el frenini çekmiyor; gaza basarak devam ediyor. Henüz pike ulaşmamışken birçok rekorlara şahit olacağımızdan kuşkum yok. Çünkü WWB patlamaları ,termoklini doğuda derinleştirerek mekanizma korunuyor ve Süper El Niño Historik yolda ilerliyor