My mother always said you can smile in any language.

Check this out in the app! On satellite, one can see the outflow, or exhaust, fanning high-altitude wispy clouds outward northwest of the system:

Wow! Tornado earlier near Clovis, New Mexico; supercell storm is cycling and may produce another tornado as it approaches Friona in the Texas Panhandle:

I’m on a side quest somewhere fall-y. I made a friend.

WOW! Western New England and Mid-Atlantic gang — did y’all see an AMAZING sunset!? Blame the incoming nor’easter! This is “exhaust,” or outflow, carrying high, wispy cirrus clouds away at 30,000-40,000 feet. They’re made of ice crystals. Because they’re thin, they filter the sunlight nicely without fully blocking it. And given the western edge was over the Hudson Valley, the setting sun was able to illuminate the clouds from below. STUNNING!

I knew it would happen eventually – I wrote "Hurricane Nolo" on a Hurricane Polo graphic.

Cloud top temperature is a proxy for hurricane strength. The stronger the hurricane, the taller the clouds in its "central dense overcast" region, and the colder their tops. Polo's cloud tops ahve chilled to minus-120ºF. No surprise considering it's a beastly Category 5!

Hurricane Polo is back up to 180 mph — wild. It will likely hit the Baja Peninsula as a Category 1-2 before its moisture is scooped into the Desert Southwest next week. Details:

A flood disaster looms for Hawaii’s Big Island. Hurricane Nolo will steer a moisture firehose at the Big Island, leading to widespread 15-25 inch rain totals with localized 30-40 inch amounts. Locally devastating flooding is possible. @MatthewCappucci has an update.

Such a fascinating evolution of this nor’easter; does it develop a warm seclusion? Does it become fully subtropical? Or does it remain non-tropical? Lots of meteorological nuance we dissected in today’s @MyRadarWX briefing:

An early-season nor’easter is about to soak the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Coastal flooding, some significant, is possible, along with lots of rain (up to 3-6 inches in southeast New England). It could even acquire hybrid/subtropical characteristics… or a warm seclusion.

HAWAII COUNTY — please prepare for locally catastrophic flooding, with widespread 20+ inch rainfall totals and a few 35+ inch totals. This flooding will likely be WORSE than what we saw with Lala in mid-August. Hurricane Nolo will turn or stall somewhere south-southwest of Hawaii. That spares us the wind, BUT it puts us on the right side of the system – meaning days of a south-southeasterly moisture firehose aimed at us. The high terrain will poke into the river of atmospheric moisture, focusing it and helping lead to 2-3 inch/hour rainfall rates. The greatest rainfall totals, measured in feet, will be on east/southeast-facing slopes. Volcano, Fern Forest, Mountain View, Ainoloa, Pahoa, Black Sands, Kalapana, Hawaiian Beaches, Hawaiian Paradise Park, Pahala, Discovery Harbor and Naalehu – plan for 20 to 35 inches of rain! Amounts will increase quickly near and south of Hilo. On Maui, Kaupo, Kipahulu and Hana could see 15-20 inches of rain. Locally significant flooding is possible. Now is the time to make final preparations to remain off the roads and in place through Sunday. That means procuring the food and prescriptions you need, as well as charging devices. Take action now to protect property. If you anticipate needing to evacuate or relocate, do that now.

Tornado folks – I have a fun one for you. Has anyone ever seen a horizontal vortex jutting out the side of a subvortex!? I.e. a noodle on a suction vortex!? Enhanced a screengrab of my El Dorado/Duke footage. Anyone else see that in their footage? Insane dynamics at play.

If I could forecast people, I would be rich and in a relationship. Instead, I drive into hailstorms. I’m sticking to forecasting the atmosphere. I don’t forecast people.

Get ready for a WICKED nor'easter along the East Coast – with a bizarre twist. It will probably become a "subtropical" storm, or a hybrid between a tropical/non-tropical storm. It could earn the name "Gonzalo", but probably won't. The system is beginning as a surface low forming along a "baroclinic zone," or a temperature clash, off the East Coast. Then it will be invigorated as an approaching upper-air disturbance lifts air up and away from our surface low, helping that coastal surface low to strengthen. The more it strengthens, the suckier it becomes. That will strengthen the winds, which will gust 40 to 60 mph at the coast for about 48 hours between Friday and early Sunday. The long duration of onshore flow will lead to coastal flooding and beach erosion. Our system is also wrapping in a LOT of subtropical moisture, which will lead to a few 3 to 6 inch rain totals (more than many classic nor'easters, since this thing is extra juiced up.) And what's the subtropical deal? By late Friday, our system will become "vertically stacked." The upper low will move beneath the surface low, meaning we'll have a column of vorticity (spin). At the upper levels, temperatures will be *very* cold, but that column of spin will be over the Gulf Stream. Water temperatures will be between 75 and 78 degrees. That means a core of thunderstorms may blossom over the warm waters (which will "seem" even relatively warmer given the very cold temperatures aloft). Coincident with our spin, that core may acquire subtropical characteristics. Impacts would change minimally, but it's a fascinating development structurally. (Note that many subtropical systems are only formally recognized retroactively, meaning classification may not ensue in realtime). There's also a chance this system could instead become a "warm seclusion," or a low pressure system so wrapped up that it pinches off a lobe of warm air near the middle. With warm seclusions, the core of warm air is too shallow to get the system classified as subtropical or fully "warm core" system, but that's TBD.

Update: found another photo of El Dorado/Duke doing its plus-sized plower phase:

Oh damn. I discovered I had this lost shot of El Dorado/Duke on an old hard drive. That was a nice surprise.